York Ebor Festival Day 4 Tips: Lordship a confident bet for Tony Calvin on Saturday

• Tony is very sweet on Lordship in the Melrose

• Our man is having two big-price bets in the Ebor

• All Saturday's ITV Racing at York and Goodwood analysed

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York - 13:50: No Bet

It lifts this weary heart (it's been a long week) to see that three of the five ITV races at York on Saturday are big-field handicaps, but the Knavesmire action kicks off with a six-runner 1m1f Group 3 Strensall Stakes at 13:50 and I would expect Nostrum to win it.

He is the best horse in the race, he has the most potential, and he could well get his own way out in front.

But he is a mere 2.111/10 on the exchange, and the one thing that concerns me about him is the form of the Sir Michael Stoute yard, though he does have his stamina to prove as well, I guess.

The Stoute horses are generally running well enough, but they are winless for nearly a month now, and you want all your ducks in a row when playing at short prices.

Not for me, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he destroyed this field, with maybe Spirit Dancer following him home.

York - 14:25: Back Lordship E/W & Chillhi E/W

The Melrose Handicap at 14:25 is as competitive as ever but I am going in two-handed, starting with a confident 9/25.50 each way bet, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook with Lordship. He is a half a point bigger elsewhere, but 9/25.50 is fine.

Now, if you ever hear any tipster or pundit say, "I am never one usually to play at the front end of the market...." , then you can bet your bottom dollar they do quite frequently.

I don't obviously (he says...), but I simply could not get away from Lordship after his Haydock win last time.

On the face of it, a 9lb rise for a length win from a horse that finished fourth of seven next time is ridiculously harsh but he did extremely well to win there and he just looks a horse that has been primed for this race, one that the trainer has won with Hamish and Soulcombe in the last four years (he also had the fourth home in 2020 and 2021).

Furthermore, that Haydock win came in a very good time and this looks a horse destined for Group honours to me, or an Australian purchase (Soulcombe was quickly snaffled up by the Oz merchants last year).

I'll be a lot poorer, as they say, if he is out of the first four.

I am also going to put my faith in that Haydock formline and I am going to back Chillhi each way at 25/126.00 with the Sportsbook.

He finished a well-beaten fifth in that race but he was chopped off on the inner early on in that contest, when in the rear, and he raced with the choke out afterwards, so I'd be inclined to ignore that.

Things just didn't pan out for him.

He again shaped as though this longer trip would suit when fourth over 1m4f at Newcastle last time (as he did when an unlucky third over an extended 1m4f at Chester in May, a race he really should have won looking at the video again) and I'll take my chances at the price.

He has already outstayed his pedigree and maybe he can last home here, for all the stamina remains a doubt for me.

As with Stoutey earlier, I'd like to see the Brian Ellison stable is much better nick (that's an understatement as he is on a losing run of 31) but I think he has got Chillhi in here off a very good mark, given his 2yo form and his promise this year, notably that Chester run.

The same owner-trainer combination had Tashkhan finish a slightly unfortunate fifth in this race in 2021.

York - 15:35: Back Tashkhan (win) & Berkshire Rocco E/W

I thought the 7f Group 2 City Of York Stakes at 15:00 was too tight-knit and tricky - Kinross is the obvious one to beat and favourite at 2.77/4 but I could see three or four giving him something to think about, namely Sacred - so I will hop, skip and jump straight to the Ebor at 15:35.

Now, I would certainly not lay Sweet William at the current 4.77/2 in this as I think he could eat, chew and spit this lot out from a mark of 99 (he is officially 4lb well-in) .

No way would I say he is a bad price - it wouldn't surprise me if he won that Group 2 Long Distance Cup at Ascot in October - but I was going to throw a dart at horse who finished second in very race in 2021, despite the fact that he could well be pulled out because of the fast ground (though a bit of rain is due on Friday and Saturday).

Step forward, the aforementioned Tashkhan.

I am in danger of being a bit too familiar with this one, but I'll forgive him his Goodwood run behind Quickthorn last time as he was the first horse to try to go after the leader and he paid for it badly.

A mark of 106 is very fair on his earlier third to Hamish here (he has run four crackers here) and I think the lead could be there for the taking should Ben Robinson want it.

Given the course form and his back-class (he has been rated 116 and was beaten only 3 lengths by Stradivarius in a Yorkshire Cup here), I will take my chance at 40.039/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange (he is currently 50.049/1 as this column goes live).

It is a small win-only bet and, like I said, they could pull him out, so I am going to go in two-handed.

I'll re-iterate that Sweet William isn't a bad price (and I will probably have a bet on him so I don't lose if he wins) but Berkshire Rocco at 35/136.00 each way, six places, cannot be ignored.

He is slowly coming back to form, and indeed he is 2lb well-in here after his second to a runaway winner at the Shergar Cup meeting earlier in the month.

He has a lot of back-class for a horse running off just 95 (fourth in a Voltigeur here in 2020, when he also finished second in a St Leger) and, if the first-time visor can continue the revival, then I reckon he has a fair each-way shot at this.

York - 16:10: No Bet

I also couldn't see much pace in the 6f handicap at 16:10 and for that reason I nearly went with Mr Wagyu at a double-figure price (currently 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook, who are paying five places) but I will stick to just the four York plays, as it is clearly a hugely competitive 20-runner sprint handicap with no end of possible winners.

Actually, 20, in fact.

Goodwood - 14:05: No Bet

We also have a couple of Group races at Goodwood and they have attracted two decent-sized fields.

A bit of housekeeping first as it is currently good, good to soft in places, with possibly 3mm rain due in the next 24 hours.

It is winners all the way in the 10-runner 2yo Group 3 fillies' Prestige Stakes at 14:05, as there is not a maiden among them, and we also have three unbeaten females, to boot, with the early 9/43.25 favourite Shuwari among that trio.

This race is not really my betting bag but Carla's Way, 5.59/2 on the exchange, was one of the many disappointments at Royal Ascot for the Time Bandits, impressing the clock-watchers on her debut at Doncaster but managing only eighth when going off favourite for the Albany.

She has had her wind done since, so maybe a recovery mission is on the cards here, but there are clearly no shortage of dangers, possibly chief among them Haydock winner Forever Blue, who is probably big enough at a double-figure price on the exchange.

Goodwood - 14:40: No Bet

Given the amount of high-class racing that has been taking place of late, I'd say Goodwood are absolutely delighted with an eight-strong field (as it stands) for their Group 2 Celebration Mile at 14:40, though it is a hefty 158k pot, after all, and should be supported.

Hopefully, we have no defectors and each way 1,2,3 betting, as you can certainly make a case for all eight, with just 6lb separating them on official ratings.

I can see why Charlie Hills has put blinkers on Galeron as I thought he needed waking up and a more aggressive ride than he got here last time when third to Epictetus and Nostrum, but I couldn't see much of a betting angle in the race, though he'd be my pick of the prices at 16/117.00.

In fact, if there are still eight in the race on Saturday morning, and I can't see a probable non-runner, he is one that I may consider as an each-way bet, but I am not playing this far out.

Look out for the 8am Betting Brief show on Betfair Racing's Twitter handle on Saturday morning, as I may well be putting him up there.

Have a good one.

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