York Ebor Festival Day 3 Tips: Tony Calvin has a strong 12/1 fancy in the Nunthorpe

• Tony fancies a 'hugely progressive sprinter in Nunthorpe

• Our man is going two-handed in York's opener

• Is trusting Haggas to have one ready in the 16:10

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York - 15:35: Back Regional

I have been finding it hard to dig out bets at York this week, but Friday is different, so let's strip out the negativity and dive straight into a long-held belief that Regional is a Group 1 sprinter in waiting.

Back him at the current 13.012/1 or bigger in the Nunthorpe at 15:35.

Firstly, I absolutely love his draw-set up in seven, which gives Callum Rodriguez the ideal opportunity to sit in behind the market leaders Highfield Princess (drawn in six), Big Evs (eight) and Bradsell (nine).

How often do you see the four market leaders drawn side by side in a 16-runner race?

I'd wager if trainer Ed Bethell could have selected a slot for his fast-improving speedster then that is surely his near-perfect sit, allowing the 5yo to stalk in behind and make his move 1f out.

Now, he can clearly make his own pace - as he showed when making all over course and distance in May - but he was played later at Haydock last time and I thought he was pretty devastating when scoring there.

Admittedly, that was only in Listed company but the time was very good - and the runner-up Equilateral and third Raasel haven't done the form any harm since - and I simply think we have a hugely progressive sprinter in our midst.

He will need to be, as clearly the three horses mentioned above are serious tools and he is currently rated a mere 109, but if the ground remains on the quick side then I am hoping to see a new sprinting star announce himself here.

Sometimes you have to go with your gut feel, price-permitting, and 10/111.00 or bigger does it for me. One word of warning, and that is his trainer is convinced he wants it fast, so the 4mm of rain due through Friday worries me a touch. (though when that lands is open to debate).

But York hadn't watered in August before putting 2mm on in the early hours of Thursday, so the track should be able to take that fine.

The Sportsbook currently want to duck Regional at 7/18.00, buy I'd be confident you'll get 12/113.00 or bigger on the exchange.

York - 14:25 & 15:00: No Bets

I really don't have any betting in the opinion in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at 14:25, though maybe Giavellotto is the overpriced one - the potentially comedic aspect of this race is how the jockeys reat when Tom Marquand presumably puts the hammer down on Quickthorn again early doors - and, as for the Gimcrack at 15:00, I learned my lesson big-style trying to get cute and predict the improvement and market in 2yo races with Edwardian (who trebled in price in the run-up to the off, going off at a scarcely believable Betfair SP of 13.33) running a stinker in the Acomb Stakes on Wednesday.

I just have to accept that juvenile races are rarely my thing, though I think you'd be a happy enough layer if you get Kylian and Johannes Brahms in the bag at a collective odds-on, and have the field running for you at odds-against. There is a lot of unexposed potential in here.

York - 13:50: Back Balance Play & Toshizou

I was toying with Toshizou once again in the opening handicap at 13:50 but I gave my head a firm wobble and decided to keep it simple, stupid, as I thought Balance Play was actually a fair price at 5.59/2 or bigger on the exchange (currently 5.95/1 at this goes live).

The Sportsbook make him 4/15.00, and offer four places.

This progressive 3yo went up 7lb for his Goodwood success last time but I thought that was justified given the manner of the performance and I'd hope there is more to come from half-brother to Khalidi, who was rated 114 at his peak.

I am slightly concerned about his stamina over this slightly longer trip but a mark of 95 could still underplay his potential.

I actually don't fancy that many against them, so I did actually go and have another look at Toshizou. I initially dismissed as he was something of a cliff horse earlier in the season and, more importantly, because the Sportsbook went just 8/19.00 about him.

But he is four points bigger elsewhere in the fixed-odds marketplace, so I am going to suggest a small exchange win-only bet at 13.012/1 or bigger (currently 19.018/1 as this goes live, but I will be fair and realistic with the guide price).

He is probably a candidate to be the worst campaigned horse this season.

They have tried him on heavy and fast ground, over 1m and 1m4f (at one point they entered him in the Copper Horse over 1m6f at Royal Ascot), ridden him prominently and then bang off the pace, and it is fair to say the scattergun approach has not paid dividends.

But there is a definite horse in there off a mark of 89, as he was given one of the poorest rides of 2023 when Hollie Doyle belatedly steered him into fourth over 1m2f at Epsom, having given him a ridiculous amount to do.

I am happy to give him another go, as this sub-1m4f trip on fast ground could be what he wants, and he is certainly handicapped to be competitive. He was running well off marks as high as 98 in Ireland last season.

York - 16:10: Back Amanzoe E/W

The fillies' 1m2f56yd handicap at 16:10 rounds off the ITV action, and 15/28.50 chance Amanzoe immediately catches the eye as William Haggas will not have left her short of work on her first start for over a year (including the odd racecourse gallop at Chelmsford, maybe).

Indeed, her latest run came when she was second in this race last season, when beaten two lengths by State Occasion, and she presumably has had plenty of problems in the interim.

But the winner of that race has gone up a stone since, and Amanzoe, hugely progressive last term, can race off just a 5lb higher mark here - the third was 4 ½ lengths away last year too, and actually won last week - so I think she is handicapped to figure.

On the basis that Haggas is a master placer of his horses, and patient with it, I am happy to back her each-way at 15/28.50, four places, with the Sportsbook.

Amanzoe is entered in a Group 2 at the Curragh on September 10, so hopefully that is a pointer to her well-being and potential.

Good luck.

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Betfair Superboost - York Ebor Day 3

Back Ryan Moore to ride a winner from one of his seven rides today - was 4/11 - now 1/12.00!

*max £10

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Racing... Only Bettor - York Ebor Day 3 - Watch Here!