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Four bets for TC at Newmarket on Wednesday
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One bet in the opener and two in the 14:25
Potential Classic clues are on show in the Nell Gwyn and the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket on Wednesday, but my main punting interest, as is usually the case, lies in the handicaps.
There is a fair bit of guesswork in the classier contests, but at least the 10/3 poke Bold Act has shown his well-being this season ahead of the Feilden and an angle I will be pursuing this year - namely demanding owners Amo Racing seemingly instructing their trainers to get them ready first time up - leads me to Queen Olly in the 1,000 Guineas trial.
I appreciate the latter doesn't have the sexy profile of the five once-raced winners - of whom the beautifully bred Kempton winner Coppice is a strong favourite at 13/8, though available at 2s on the Betfair Exchange - but I wasn't expecting her to be anywhere near as big as 33/1 in the marketplace (in five places) on Monday afternoon.
Back Queen Olly at 26.025/1 or bigger in the 15:35.
She is not far off (if at all) the strongest of these form or time-wise on her best juvenile exploits for David Loughnane - albeit off the back of many more runs - and I don't think many would class her move to George Boughey as a trainer downgrade.
Among her better efforts last season were a third to Mawj and Lezoo in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes on the July course - Lezoo and Mawj went on to finish first and third in the Cheveley Park, with subsequent Breeders' Cup winner Meditate in second - and a runner-up in a Listed event at this track, where she won her race on the unfavoured far side.
This could be her Cup final - though we probably said the same about Boughey's winner of this race last season, Cachet, and she went on to win the Classic - and she is simply too big a price.
Even the 20/1 with the Sportsbook would be acceptable, but I'll be happy with 25/1+ on the Betfair Exchange (which should be very gettable given there is 33s, and plenty of 28s, in the wider marketplace). I'll settle at Betfair SP anyway.
I just hope I have got the right Amo Racing horse as they also have 25/1 poke Mammas Girl in here.
Indeed, Boughey also has Believing in the race, and he rather curiously spoke about her, and not Queen Olly, in an ATR stable tour that went live on Monday. I tend to take that as a positive, though.
Gulmarg can see off field of dangerous lurkers
Gulmarg is the bet at 16/1 win-only with the Sportsbook in the 1m handicap at 13:50. Odds of 14/1 would be fine too.
He was gelded after finishing last of three on his final start last season but his comeback run over 7f at Kempton was certainly promising enough, with step back up to 1m set to suit. Mind you, many were expecting better at Kempton as he was well backed into 4/1 on the show there.
One of his two previous efforts at this trip to date was a neck second on the same track against a punted handicap debutant, with a subsequent winner in third, and 3lb claimer Harry Davies is back on board, having won on his only ride on the horse.
Sean Woods is an excellent placer of his horses and Gulmarg looks fairly handicapped off 84, even if there are dangerous lurkers wherever you look. It is a 3yo handicap after all.
Chairmanoftheboard can win it his way
The 6f contest at 14:25 has suckered me in, and I am going in two-handed - to small, win-only stakes as it is a sprint handicap after all - with Chairmanoftheboard and Above, both of whom shaped well enough on their comeback runs.
The former was eased 1lb for his run on ground possibly too soft for him at Doncaster (though he has won on that going) and he is 6lb lower than when an excellent third of 19 to Blackrod at 33/1 over course and distance last April, having made his return at Donny that year, too.
Double figure quotes about him look very fair and he is bet at 12.011/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange, even if he will need luck from stall one. He is 10/1 with the Sportsbook, which is obviously okay, too.
Above can hit the heights
Above opened up at 16/1 with the Sportsbook on Monday, and the 14/1 disappeared on Tuesday morning, but the current 11/1 is still acceptable, as he really did shape well under a pretty tender ride at Chelmsford last month, unsurprisingly so as it was his first start since last August.
He raced off 94 there but he is rated just 87 on turf and he finished second over 7f at this meeting last season (off 93) before going on chase Blackrod home over this trip at the track, with Chairmanoftheboard just behind him, again off a mark 6lb higher than this.
He will do for me at 11/1. Small stakes, mind you, on both selections.
Heltenham a fair price but no tip just yet
Cheltenham hosts an outstanding card on Wednesday - in particular, the 2m4f novices' hurdle has attracted a great field, full of Aintree swervers, considering it is less than 11k-to-the-winner - and ITV are showing the opener from there.
In truth, the whole card would not look out of place on terrestrial TV on a Saturday afternoon.
The hugely progressive Heltenham unsurprisingly heads the betting in the opener at 13:30, but the handicapper has upped him 11lb for his ridiculously easy win at Newbury last time and this is a deeper race, so he is opposable.
Mind you, I actually thought he was a fair enough price at nudging 9/2 on the exchange, even in a race with some depth to it.
But the ground is good (good to soft in places) and drying which was initially leading to me to a, somewhat predictable, admittedly dangerous, win-only bet on Deyrann De Carjac.
So I took a pull and had a second look.
I know I am probably a touch over-familiar with a horse that hasn't won since November 2019 but good ground and a mark of 127 initially appeared to outweigh the negatives of his inconsistency and his tendency to hit one (or two). Not to mention his ability to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory, as he did at Wetherby on his comeback run in October.
Put it this way, if he returns to the form of his fifth to Ga Law, French Dynamite, Midnight River and Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power here in November, off a 3lb higher mark than this, then he could take a lot of whacking. That is red-hot handicap form.
A mark of 127 is a gift waiting to be unwrapped then, but I decided against a bet.
Aside from the cons listed above, I am not sure about the cheekpieces being put back on is a plus, either - he hasn't run well in any of his three starts in them - this is a pretty deep handicap, and he has also been clipped in a couple of points since Monday.
I will probably chuck a few quid on him so I don't sulk if and when he wins, but he isn't a strong enough fancy to put up for you to back as well. Good luck if you disagree.
Go well.