ITV Races

Tuesday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has one eye on Cyclop in Welsh National

  • Tony Calvin
  • Published on
  • Updated on
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Betfair Tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has two bets at Chepstow for Welsh National day

The Christmas racing continues on ITV on Tuesday with Chepstow and Kempton both on the box, and our resident tipster Tony Calvin has two bets for you at big prices to consider...

  • 33/1 Cyclop catches the eye in Welsh National

  • Bridge worth chancing to show winning hand

  • No bets at Kempton despite some decent racing


Nine races on ITV and a sub-editor that doesn't want to wade through a tipping War And Peace on his Boxing Day, so short and snappy are the watchwords for this column.

We will see how that plays out - it is usually badly for both of us - but let's start with Chepstow and the biggest betting race of the day.

Back Cyclop each way at 33/1, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook in the Welsh National at 14:50.

Back Cyclop each-way, five places, in 14:50 Chepstow

33/1

To be honest, I only started to look at the race for the first time on Christmas Eve as I was bored, and I thought the obvious ones at the front end of the market were predictably priced. It is all too easy to make a case for the likes of Quick Wave and Ask Me Early, but they didn't appeal to me as bets.

Cyclop catches the eye at a big price

However, my eye nearly popped out of my head when I saw Cyclop was 66/1 on the Sportsbook on Saturday afternoon - you see what I did there? - and I am content to side with him at his current price of 33s now we have the decs.

People think I am winding them up when I say I can't see the difference between a 7lb claimer and the champion jockey Brian Hughes when watching his races, and I guess he has just has a very quiet style and/or I am simply ignorant of race-riding.

The latter is heavy odds-on, admittedly.

But Hughes certainly wasn't overly-animated when guiding this horse into third in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso last time, staying on again in eye-catching style after losing his place after being prominent early doors, and it looked like a tee-up for this race to this mince pie, all right.

Okay, I'll stop now.

Anyway, he arrives here on a very tempting mark of just 130, although he would have been running off 128 had this not been an early-closer, as he was dropped 2lb for that Kelso run.

Still, that doesn't deter me, nor does the fact that David Dennis could certainly have his small string in better form (he has three runners on Boxing day, so I will be keeping an eye on how they run).

Okay, Cyclop is an 11yo - I always seem to fall for the oldies in handicaps - and he is a veteran of 35 chases, but he scores highly in terms of that attractive mark, course form, stamina and the expected good to soft ground could be perfect for him.

He has a plethora of solid form in the various Nationals that are dotted around the country, winning the Lincolnshire version in 2017 and he added the Highland National to his winning CV when scoring at Perth off 128 on good ground under Hughes last year (after which he was raised to 132).

He has also won on his last two visits to this track, and he can handle soft perfectly well if the ground worsens. He has also won twice on Boxing Day, plus he has two seconds in the same period, so maybe connections ready him for a Christmas plunder for his owners.

He is clearly vulnerable to a younger buck but he will do for me win and place at what looks far too generous a price. The booking of 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin, who did us a favour recently, is good enough for me. She has ridden him to victory three times, including a brace of wins around here.

I am going with the each-way angle, but please note he is 60.059/1 to back in the win-only exchange market. I will have a nibble there too, myself.

Perseus can show the Way in Finale

The ITV action at Chepstow kicks off with the 2m3f handicap chase at 13:05. It was 6/1 the field at the ante-post stage if you shopped around, and it remains a competitive heat, though nothing appealed to me.

The Finale Juvenile Hurdle at 13:40 has been demoted to a Grade 2 contest this year but I talked up Perseus Way on the Betfair Weighed In podcast after his debut second to Scriptwriter at Cheltenham and I wouldn't be in the least surprised were he to win this.

He was a monumental drifter that day but he shaped very well there and he won as he was entitled to at heavy odds-on at Leicester last time.

The problem with him is the price here, as he looks short enough at around 5s in a race with some depth, so I can't tip him as it stands.

Go West for a 20/1 bet in the Handicap Hurdle

The 2m7f+ handicap hurdle at 14:10 is a betting heat for me though and I am going to take a chance that this has been the plan for West To The Bridge.

Back him at 21.020/1 or bigger. The first firm up actually made him a 25/1 chance, but 20s or bigger is my guide price.

He is 20/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook and that may be the best place to back him win-only if you want to get filled immediately.

Back West To The Bridge 14:10 Chepstow @

21.0+

I think the handicapper has taken the same view as me and seen more promise in his three runs this season than it first appears, as I would have expected him to come down more in the weights than he has done.

But he is down 6lb to a mark of 133 and, with the tongue-tie refitted for the first time this season - that has been on for his last four wins - I am hoping it is pedal-to-the-metal day for him.

He certainly wasn't given a hard time of it at Lingfield last time, he is now 3lb lower than for his last winning mark and he dotted up around here back in January.

He is well worth chancing at the price.

Some classy races at Kempton but no bets for me

We have a juvenile hurdle kicking off the card at Kempton at 12:45 and it is a bit too much of a guessing game for me to tip anything.

However, I have a lot of time for trainer Stuart Edmunds, who won this race in 2019, and his recent Wolverhampton winner Chaos Control is interesting enough at what is likely to be a double-figure price.

Yet more small-field novices' chase action in the Grade 2 2m Wayward Lad at 13:20. It was evens Boothill playing 7/4 Lac De Constance on the ante-post front, and they are joined by a couple of others, most notably Glory And Fortune.

I appreciate it's a classy enough contest but ITV should have requested this race was replaced by the 15-runner handicap hurdle that ends the card. No interest here and no bet.

The 3m+ mares' handicap hurdle at 13:55 attracted just 10 entries at the five-day stage - Get A Tonic was the evens favourite - and we are down to seven now. Get A Tonic is clearly the most likely winner but her price is in no way attractive, even if she has drifted from the five-. Another pass

The Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at 14:30 has gone from nine to seven at the overnight stage . Little has changed in the betting, as it was 8/15 Edwardstone and 9/4 Nube Negra when it first opened last week, and 10/1+ the rest.

I couldn't see any betting angle into the race, though Funambule Sivola is no no-hoper against the big two.

The 3m handicap chase at 15:09 has been reduced from 31 to 15 at the overnight stage, but it at least provides us with a meaty contest to get stuck into.

However, once again I came up empty at the current prices - Your Darling could take a lot of beating but his price suggests as much - and I make no apologies for not betting and tipping for the sake of it, so it's a relatively quiet punting day for me.

Good luck if you are getting more involved than I.

Recommended bets

PROFIT AND LOSS (from March 26; does not include Boxing Day results)

Staked: 295
Returns: 469
P/L: +174.0

PREVIOUS (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1

*All exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP for sake of fairness

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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.