Tuesday Racing Tips: Hodler is Tony Calvin's 10/1 tip on day one at Newmarket

• Four races from Newmarket live on ITV Racing

• In-form Tony Calvin previews all races

• Tony has one tip to consider at 10/1+

The Craven meeting is the true starting point of the Flat season and, as such, we are rather guessing as regards the state of readiness of the returning horses.

As a result, taking a relative pull on the stakes front early doors is the sensible thing to do.

Oh, and before I crack on, just a bit of a profit and loss housekeeping. The results from the past two years are outlined below but it is time to re-set to zero again, which always re-focuses the mind.

And that is why displaying your p & l, for all to see, on every column, is so important, aside from the obvious issue of transparency for your readers.

It keeps you honest.

Too many unknowns in opener

Long losing runs are a fact of life at the prices I tip at, but at least I will still be on zero after the nine-runner 3yo conditions' race at 13:50, which opens the ITV coverage.

We haven't seen seven of them for at least 152 days and they have all shown a similar amount of ability, so it is all about how much progress these unexposed horses have made in the past six months, which I have no clue about. And I'll wager 99pc of you don't either.

I should mention the ground at Newmarket is soft, with a dry forecast.

Race fit Hodler looks on a fair mark still

At least we know a few in the 7f handicap at 14:25 are race-fit and I have a bit of betting history with two them, New Kingdom and Tacarib Bay (who I fancied for the Lincoln, only for connections to go down the conditions race route), but Hodler is the one for me.

It is a touch annoying that he is 1lb out of the weights and I was quite surprised to see Saffie Osborne doesn't claim anymore (I am not the most observant in this area, it has to be said) but I am happy to take a chance with him after the promise of his comeback run at Lingfield.

It would actually be easy to dismiss that reappearance run as underwhelming, as he beat only the 80/1 outsider home in that eight-runner race, but he got squeezed out after the start, then was far too keen, and he was not given a hard time at all up the straight.

In the circumstances, I actually thought he ran a very encouraging race to be beaten just 3 ½ lengths, and you had to like the way he finished off last season.

A winner of three races in 2022, all over this trip, he signed off for the campaign with a second of 17 over course and distance on soft ground in October, and the winner was Astral Beau, who is now rated 26lb higher after spreadeagling a Listed field at Doncaster last month.

Granted, the form of Astral Beau's victory may be a touch over-rated, given the ground, and you'd like to have seen Jim Boyle with a recent winner on the board (though he had a narrow 40/1 runner-up earlier this month), but I think Hodler is the bet in here at 11.010/1 or bigger.

He is also 10/1 with the Sportsbook, so you may want to back him there if you want to get filled immediately. He is race-fit, has good course form, he is ground-versatile (good ground and soft come alike to him) and looks to be on a fair mark, still.

Will Poker Face show his hand in Earl Of Sefton?

Nothing really stood out for me in the 1m handicap at 15:00, as you can literally make a case for all 13 (First Folio came out on Monday morning with an infected foot). I couldn't see a betting way in, even if the Sportsbook are paying four places.

At the prices, perhaps 16/1 poke Toshizou interested me most, because I thought he shaped well on his debut for Roger Fell in the Lincoln and he was dropped another 1lb for it. He was not the most straightforward of horses when with Joseph O'Brien though, so how well he progresses from Donny is a toss-up.

The way Poker Face was smashed in the betting before taken out because of the heavy ground at Doncaster (from an opening 10/3 in a place, I think he hit evens before being withdrawn) strongly suggested plenty thought he was better than a 101-rated horse and he gets the chance to show that in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at 15:35.

I suspect he may well put it up to this lot on his step up to Group company but everything is about price, and I wanted bigger than the Sportsbook's 7/4 (he is shorter elsewhere, too) as he takes on seven higher-rated horses, and one to the tune of 12lb in Ottoman Fleet.

And I always respect the Amo Racing horses first time up, with Raadobarg having his initial start for George Boughey, too. He is half-tempting at 15/1+ on the exchange.

No, I will ease my way into the season gently with just the one Tuesday play.

Good luck.

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