Tony Calvin Tips: 16/1 Alex can be Prince among ante-post thieves

• Queen's Cup at Musselburgh the race to target

• Plenty will get balloted out to leave max field of 14

• Tony Calvin has a 16/1 tip for the race

It's a busy enough week on ITV, with nine all-weather contests on Good Friday, and turf racing at Haydock and Musselburgh on Saturday.

I'll leave Friday alone - the ante-post markets for those will close early on Wednesday morning anyway, so they have a relatively short betting shelf-life for this column - and the ground situation looks like being a mixture of good to soft and soft for the turf action.

It is currently good to soft (soft in places) at both tracks, with a fair bit of rain around in midweek, but predominantly dry as we head towards the weekend.

So expect to hear and read a lot about drying, sticky, cloying ground (insert other similar phrases on request) in the pre-race analysis.

Costly reminder of this time last year

Musselburgh's Queen's Cup at 15:35 is the sole early-closer on Saturday, not that there was any ante-post betting on the valuable 1m6f handicap.

There were 48 in the race before Monday's five-day stage and we are now left with 34 to dissect, with a maximum field of just 14 allowed.

So there are going to be a lot of disappointed owners and trainers, it would appear. That 14 maximum limit is crucial.

I remember this day last year quite clearly, as I watched the race on my phone, waiting for my temporary front tooth bridge to be replaced in an emergency dentist just off the A3 (it was the Easter break, so I did well to get an appointment) after it fell out that morning.

I know there are a million things worse in the world but the sheer horror of having to go out in public minus the most prominent tooth of all had me close to tears. And that was before some stranger tried to ram it back in place with dentist cement, at a not inconsiderable cost.

Hopefully, no such dramas this weekend - the permanent implant has held in well, as it should for 4k-plus - and we can find the winner of the big one up in Scotland.

A couple of interesting ones that likely won't get a run

Charlie Johnston had nine of the 48, and he left in all but one those in on Monday, and his old man liked to target this race, too.

They won it in 2019 and 2021 (the race obviously didn't happen in 2020), they had the neck runner-up in 2018, but fifth was the best they could manage from their three runners last year.

The most interesting of his eight is La Pulga, who makes his debut for the yard, having been bought of the Charlton's yard for 85,000 guineas in October after winning at Salisbury in late September.

There is definite upside to his handicap mark of 83, but unfortunately given the maximum field size of 14, probably too much as he is going to need a lot of these to come out to get a run. It just won't happen.

A similar scenario with Emmet Mullins' Teed Up, though the Doncaster November handicap runner-up to Metier (also in here, along with the third Emiyn) would be a very dangerous rival to all off his mark. He needs 10 to come out, however, and I can't see that occurring.

If the ground is a no-excuses good to soft, then I really can't see too many defecting given the first-place pot of over 51k.

In the top half of the weights, Pleasant Man is also in at Plumpton over hurdles on Sunday (as is Metier), Nand olton Cross is an at Newcastle on Friday, but the rest only have this option.

Haku is currently 25th in the list and he also has all-weather options on Friday, as does Legendary Day and Dubai Leader immediately below him - as do Fairmac and Pons Aelius at the foot of the handicap - so be aware that plenty are set to balloted out (which means money back if they are entered) - so I quite like the betting shape of this race.

Prince can rule in Queen's Cup

The one that I like needs four to come out to get a run (hopefully the hurdlers will go to Plumpton, to give us half a chance) but Prince Alex gets my current vote.

Amo Racing seemingly instruct their trainers to have their horses revved up first time (as we saw at Doncaster at the weekend, with a 9/1 winner and a second that traded at 1.011/100 in running) and they have given Tom Dascombe a shot with Prince Alex, the horse having been with Ralph Beckett, Michael Bell and Johnny Murtagh in the past two years.

He was a progressive horse with Beckett in 2020, won first time out for Bell in 2021 and only saw the track once for Murtagh in 2022.

Given the demanding nature of the owners, Dascombe will be doubly-keen to make an immediate impression and only late last month he was very complimentary about his new arrival, including referencing this very race.

Not that he would have been anything else but positive, when asked, admittedly.

He told the Racing Post: "He arrived in top shape and was pretty fit, and he looked great too. We've had him a few weeks and he hasn't left a single nut since he's been with us. He's moving well and I'm happy with him. His form suggests he'll want softish ground and that Musselburgh race could suit."

He is back on the same mark as when beating Urban Artist on soft ground over 1m6f at Goodwood in July 2021 - the runner-up was second in a Group 2 last year - and he is a relatively lightly-raced 6yo.

I couldn't believe it when the first firm up on Monday afternoon made him a 16/1 chance, and even more so when the next up went 20s - the latter price is still out there, by the way, for openness - but 16/1 is available with the Betfair Sportsbook and that has to be a win-only bet for me.

I wouldn't lay 10/1 myself.

Good luck.