Tony Calvin: Tacarib Bay the one I like for Saturday's Lincoln Handicap

• Al Mubhir heads betting for Saturday's Lincoln

• Market has potential to be very top-heavy

• Tacarib Bay appeals but double-entry a concern

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And, while our backs were turned, the Lincoln has crept up on us.

It was good to see Johan win this race at 28/1 last season, if only to remind us that seemingly exposed older handicappers (though he won on his first start after being switched from William Haggas, no less) can still spring a surprise in the race following successes of the sexy band of 4yos in the previous three runnings at odds of 5/1, 5/2 and 9/2.

The market is strongly suggesting the lightly-raced 4yos from top stables will dominate once again though as Al Mubhir, Awaal and Atrium are just three with this type of profile, and we haven't even got to the second letter of the alphabet yet.

Fast forward to the Zs and you can certainly make a case for Zozimus, too. David O'Meara has a good record in this race with stable-switchers (won this with the ex-Aidan O'Brien Bravery in 2017) and this one has joined him from Donnacha O'Brien, a stable for which he finished fourth in the 2021 Cambridgeshire off a 2lb higher mark at the ripe old odds of 100/1.

Who knows how much ability he retains after having not been seen since the November of that year though, and if you back him there is a considerable amount of guesswork. As is the case for most in here, admittedly.

Stablemate and ownermate Zealot, bidding for a four-timer, surprisingly wasn't kept in the race on Monday but Wanees was and he did many punters a favour when landing a punt at Haydock last September. He looks very feasibly treated off just a 3lb higher mark here.

Right, enough of this A-Z alphabet nonsense, let's get down and dirty and focus on the betting.

Haggas raider heads the market

Haggas' Al Mubhir claimed favouritism at 9/2 at the weekend following the trainer's success with Lattam (a 4yo having just his fifth start) in the Irish equivalent on Saturday afternoon, and you can see why.

That was probably a slight overreaction - though obviously not as he was cut into 4s on Monday afternoon - but he was already prominent in the betting (he was clipped in from 6s) and Haggas, who won this with Addeybb in 2018 off a mark of 99 en route to Group 1 success, is simply a man to be given the utmost respect in any race, and Al Mubhir rounded off his 2022 campaign with a commanding 2 ¾ length win at Haydock on heavy ground and is 7lb higher here.

He is now rated 97 but he is by Frankel out of the stable's 107-rated miler Muffri' Ha , so he has the pedigree to go with the potential. And the trainer (who also has Montassib in here) has been trying to secure the services of Ryan Moore, too. He is available at 6.05/1 on the exchange.

Oh, I suppose I should mention the ground at Doncaster, as it is rather important.

It is currently soft (good to soft in places), and the current weather forecast makes for very good reading for sellers of raincoats and umbrellas from midweek onwards. One site has 30mm arriving from Tuesday to Saturday (20mm on Friday and Saturday), so we could easily be looking at heavy.

Another plus for Al Mubhir.

Baradar potentially well-handicapped on juvenile form

The 5/1 second favourite Awaal also has winning form on heavy but his trainers, Simon and Ed Crisford, also have an interesting contender with 25/1 chance Croupier.

Baradar is 8/1 third favourite and he has a lot to recommend him too, having won in heavy ground over 7f at the track on his debut for George Boughey back in November.

A 4lb rise to a mark of 97 for beating the hat-trick seeking Biggles that day seems very fair, and remember this was a horse rated 110 for Johnny Murtagh after finishing third in a heavy-ground Group 1 Vertem Futurity over course and distance in 2020.

And he is owned by Amo Racing, who seemingly insist all of their horses are revved up for their first starts of the season, not that Boughey would have needed telling with this prize on the line.

This really is an utter minefield of a handicap, and I haven't even mentioned dozens of the other horses entered (we have 69 in the race as it stands), or betrayed any confidences and passed on some of the gossip horses.

Hendrix backed to pull the strings

I probably shouldn't but as he has been backed from 25/1 to 12/1 (and is shorter in places) in the past three weeks, and presumably everyone who knows is already on, I will say that Jimi Hendrix has been another buzz horse for this race.

He, too, has been gelded since we last saw him disappointing over 1m2f in heavy ground at Newbury but the soft ground, course winner has big-field handicap form, having finished third in the Britannia, and is yet another horse in here that has been delighting connections at home, it seems.

Not only do all the market leaders have the look of long-range plot horses, it really is impossible to have an overly-strong view on them given how many are having their first start for yonks in what is looking like being very deep ground, and their defensive prices.

One thing looks assured though, and that is the market is going to be very top-heavy, and you will get handsomely paid if you look beyond the obvious, especially at Betfair SP come the day, and cop the winner.

Johan may have won at 28/1 last year but his Betfair SP was 13 points bigger at 42.0.

I think I may have another such candidate.

Tacarib has big chance of keeping rivals at Bay if lining up

Now, unlike many, the Sportsbook are paying five places ante-post, but the horse in question is 16/1 with the Sportsbook when 33/1 is available elsewhere, so I can hardly tip him on the fixed-odds front.

And, with a maximum field of 22 on Saturday, I'd be very surprised if those generous odds-compilers aren't paying at least six for the each-way billy bunters come the weekend and he is still at least 16s.

However, Tacarib Bay is very much on my radar and I was all to set to tip him on the exchange (he is currently 32.031/1 there) until I clocked something important.

Read on.

On the face of it, he looks a touch too exposed to take this job on and nail it, but he does have a lot going for him.

He hasn't raced on officially heavy ground but he is two from three on soft, and he finished third in the Horris Hill on the other occasion. Actually, Timeform called it heavy that day at Newbury, a race in which he traded at 1.331/3 in running, so the ground is a plus, for all he handles a better surface.

He is only 1lb higher than when winning at Haydock last summer (the runner-up won by 1 1/4 lengths off a 2lb higher mark next time) and he ran a huge race at Wolverhampton on his return.

Well, if not huge, quite big.

Drawn wide, he was immediately switched to the inside, was second-last of 13 turning in, and shaped really well to be beaten just 2 lengths into fifth at the line, with all the fancied horses in front of him.

He was weak in the market that day too, going off at an industry SP of 20/1 (Betfair SP of 24.81) and, as you'd expect for a self-proclaimed Lincoln Trial, that must have been a tee-up job for this, and a recent run is no bad thing to have had in this ground.

When I say he is exposed, that may be a touch over-dramatic as he has had just the 13 starts and the fitting of blinkers three outings ago has certainly helped him.

And he has never had the headgear on, when he has also had deep ground, so I think he could have something up his sleeve. Maybe not the 7lb or so needed to win this - or about 20lb in Addeybb's case - but he is the outsider that appealed most at this stage.

Granted, I'd be slightly concerned on the stamina front in the conditions and winning this off a mark of 104 is a big historical ask - I had a quick flick through of past Lincoln winners and only Cataldi (9st 10lb) in 1985 had carried more than 9st 5lb and won in recent decades - but stats do not dictate my betting.

But double-entered horses certainly do and connections have, rather annoyingly for my punting purposes, given Tacarib Bay the option of running in the Listed Doncaster Mile on the card, so I simply cannot back or advise him ante-post.

The 45k Doncaster Mile has attracted only 10 entries at the five-day stage, so they could easily go there instead.

Richard Hannon likes the race (he has won it twice in the last five years) and he also has clear form choice Lusail in it, though I think that one would want better ground.

Unforgotten and Kingdom Come are interesting contenders on their all-weather form but they have not experienced anything like the Donny ground, so there must be a doubt if they will even be risked.

No, unfortunately, it is powder dry at the moment, sorry. I will be back tomorrow if I see any ante-post bets in the other weekend ITV races.

Good luck.