Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Ramatuelle is still best win-only bet in 1000 Guineas

• TC's 1000 Guineas antepost tip is sitting peachy

• Ramatuelle is still best win-only bet in Sunday race

• City Of Troy a worthy favourite in 2000 Guineas

Right, let's start with the likely ground for Newmarket's three-day meeting, starting on Friday, and which sees the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday and the 1,000 on Sunday.

Newmarket weekend going latest

I touched upon this in an earlier ante-post piece on Monday morning, but it bears repeating.

The ground was good to firm last week, but it has changed to good to soft after significant rain (18mm at weekend) and an unsettled enough week is in store.

Granted, the forecast has improved dramatically today - just 6mm on Thursday and Friday now, when Wednesday was looking to cop 15mm alone when I first looked in the early hours of Monday - before a dry, sunny and reasonably Saturday, with rain (currently 3mm) returning on Sunday.

So it looks best to work on the basis of a mixture of good and good to soft ground maybe, though things can change quickly weather-wise, as we all know.

I have fancied one in Sunday's 1,000 Guineas (at 15:40) for a while now, and I put Ramatuelle up 12s win-only at 12s on April 17, and thankfully I have heard nothing negative about her since. And she was confirmed today.

Which is all peachy.

Actually, that is the third time I have used that word in recent columns, and it got me wondering where it came from.

Obviously, that particular fruit is a juicy treat, but perhaps it stems from the character Peachey Carnehan, a jovial character (early on in the piece, anyway) in the excellent The Man Who Would Be King, but I guess that isn't really relevant either way and I should stop writing rot and crack on.

Newmarket Sunday 15:40 - Antepost bet Ramatuelle

Anyway, the 1,000 Guineas field is now down to 20 from 27.

The reason why I liked Ramatuelle is many-fold, not least the fact that I think she just about has the best form in the field, including that of Group 1 winners Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang, who top the market.

Not by much, granted, but she is a fair bit bigger than that pair and price is everything.

I certainly wouldn't be too downbeat about her narrow prep defeat to the progressive French 1,000- Guineas-bound Romantic Style in the 7f Prix Imprudence on heavy at Deauville, as it was a very encouraging return, and it sounds as if that was a planned, deliberate stepping stone to Newmarket, and she wasn't drilled for that race.

And it crucially confirmed her well-being after the winter.

And, she is arguably the form filly on her narrow second to Vandeek in the 6f Prix Morny, as well as her wide-margin Group wins at Chantilly previously.

That Morny form could be mustard in terms of assessing who is best set to win this Classic.

As I said earlier in the month, the winner went on to win the Middle Park by 2 ¼ lengths; the third, River Tiber, finished third in that Newmarket Group 1; the fourth, Sacred Angel, finished third in the Cheveley Park; the fifth, Valiant Force, was beaten ½ length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and the sixth, Sajir, has won his next two starts, including in a Group 3 on his return.

Ramatuelle is unproven at the track and the trip - clear negatives, or at least an absence of positives - but she shaped well enough over 7f in a slowly-run race at Deauville and she is a Justify filly, who tend to stay very well. At least a mile, anyway.

And, with the changeable weather forecast in mind, she is ground-versatile. Timeform called it good to firm when she won at Chantilly in June.

Head came over to the UK twice in 2023, with Big Rock sluicing up by six lengths in the QEII and Blue Rose Cen finishing a carved-up fourth in the Nassau, so he knows what he is doing, though it has to be said his recent form in France has to be classed under "moderate", though a couple have run well of late.

She remains the best win-only bet in the race at around 10s on the Exchange. The Sportsbook are 9/110.00 if you want to play her each-way, though she is point bigger elsewhere.

You have to respect the above-mentioned pair at the top of the market, but neither of those scare me at the prices - 11/43.75 plays 3/14.00 Ylang Ylang with the Sportsbook, so they want to keep them fully onside - and neither does Nell Gwyn runner-up Dance Sequence at 5s.

Sure, Dance Sequence shaped well enough here earlier in the month and may improve for a mile, but her bare form does not entitle her to be so short in the market.

Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang are another matter, but the former is unproven over a mile (she will probably get it well, but she beat a quick horse in the Moyglare) and Ylang Ylang could be more of an 1m2f-Oaks type, being by Frankel out of a mare who stayed 1m4f.

Ylang Ylang's stablemate Content attracted some money at the start of last week, before her trainer suggested France was the target, but presumably plans are still up in the air. Content is a dangerous lurker all right, given the way she finished off last term.

Another at a similar price I liked is See The Fire, who broke my heart when trading at 1.132/15 in running when a wayward third to Ylang Ylang in the Fillies' Mile.

Maybe they will stick some headgear on the Sea The Stars and Arabian Queen filly, but it sounds like connections put her hanging that day down to in experience.

I can possibly see the each-way case for Fred Darling third Elmarka at 25s, even if the form of that Newbury trial is certainly nothing special.

Let's see what Friday brings.

Newmarket Saturday 15:35 - No bet

As for the 2,000 Guineas a day earlier on Saturday at 15:35, I don't think anyone could have much of an argument with Aidan O'Brien's City Of Troy trading at over 8/111.73 on the Exchange, and 4/61.67 with the Sportsbook.

We have been accustomed to the star 2yos from this outfit being talked up in the Spring ahead of the Classics but there does seem to be a different, infectious, confidence surrounding this colt.

He is clearly regarded as very much the complete package by connections, and videos and interviews about his recent work-outs on social media have strongly hinted that defeat is not entertained this weekend.

And they are not afraid to be bullish about it. I am assuming it isn't a late sales pitch and someone is about to buy a share in him for a King's Ransom.

Auguste Rodin was a 13/82.63 blow-out in this race last year, but the vibes surrounding City Of Troy have always been on another level.

He has an able bodyguard team of River Tiber, Henry Longfellow - actually it could be this unbeaten Group 1 winner is an able sparring partner to the favourite at home, but I am not even sure he runs - and Diego Velazquez stlll in the race, but can he get chinned?

I suspect he won't.

But of course, he can.

Top-notchers Kingman and Australia were beaten by a 40s poke in Night Of Thunder in quite a mad finish to this race in 2014 (though the winner did go on to win a Lockinge) and quite simply the best horse doesn't always win on the day.

The Hannon yard was responsible for that 2014 winner and they look to spoil the party again with Rosallion and Craven winner Haatem, who are part of a reduced field of 14 after today's confirmation stage.

Haatem looked an improved model over a mile on his reappearance but the stable have always regarded the 4/15.00 second favourite Rosallion as their number one Classic miling hope, and he bounced back from his Doncaster third to Iberian on soft (a race in which he was very weak in the market) with a Lagardere success from O'Brien's subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Unquestionable.

They will want the forecast to stay as it is for him. Or actually improve.

I am not inclined to go through all of the field, as I honestly do think City Of Troy is something of a David Dickinson (think Real Deal, more than Bargain Hunt, given his price), but what appeals most outside of him at the current prices?

Nothing, in truth - the Sportsbook are top price about the front two, but are ducking everything immediately below them, including being just 7s about Notable Speech - so I'll see what Thursday's final confirmation stage at 10am brings us.

Maybe the field will hold up and prices will ease.

Be lucky.

Now read Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: 20/1 bets for Friday at Goodwood and Newmarket