Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Make a Savvy choice for the Cambridgeshire

We have Group 1 action at Newmarket on Saturday, but I will focus solely on the Cambridgeshire here and make no apologies for it.

There were 81 in the race before Tuesday's five-day stage and we have whittled the field down to 44 - so we may well have a maximum field of 35 on Saturday - so we better get cracking.

Betfair Sportsbook paying five places now

The most obvious thing to say is you probably need a compelling price to be betting each-way now.

The Betfair Sportsbook are playing fair by offering five places at this stage (only three other bookmakers are doing likewise) but you just know you will get six and upwards at the weekend with a massive field assured.

There is no surprise to see Mujtaba at the top of the betting at 4/1 - yet another William Haggas big handicap favourite - as he was impressive at Doncaster last time and he is 3lb well-in here under his 4lb penalty.

You get the impression that performance was a long time coming - he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the Lincoln back in March - and there is no denying how good he looked when beating Legend Of Dubai by 1 ¾ lengths at Donny.

However, as we saw with Haggas's Khanjar in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday, the percentage call always has to be to ignore these sort of prices in massive fields, especially when the draw could scupper you.

And, furthermore, he has never raced on anything quicker than good if the rain (and over-watering) stays away. Jim Crowley made a point of mentioning that he "loves to get his toe in" after the win last time.

And the trainer is also on record as saying the horse "needs it soft". So that's a concern for his ante-post backers.

Woods can maintain super strike-rate

Haggas also has the second favourite in the progressive Protagonist but my main fancy for this handicap is the horse he beat by a nose at Doncaster in July, nutting him right on the line.

Namely, Savvy Victory, a horse that the stable has always held in some regard it seems, hence they tried him in Group company in the Chester Vase and the King Edward VII Stakes over 1m4f.

I am a big fan of his trainer Sean Woods, who has one of the best strike-rates in the country with his relatively small stable - 31 wins from 129 runners at 24 per cent - and two of his last five runners have copped, too.

And this horse has interested me ever since his third to Ottoman Fleet in a Listed race at Newmarket in May, a race in which he shaped really well from off the pace, travelling into the race with real panache. I backed him at 16s there and felt he could have gone a lot closer on another day.

Take away those two non-staying efforts over 1m4f in Group class, and the 3yo has a very progressive profile.

They decided to go from the front with him in that four-runner race at Doncaster - after he stumbled very badly coming out of the stalls, that is - and it very nearly worked, trading at 1.091/11 in running before the late chinning.

Protagonist has since followed up and Savvy Victory was very impressive himself over 1m2f at Goodwood in a quick time. They dropped him in there in a five-runner race and he travelled strongly before coming through and winning as he liked.

Strong pace over short trip could suit

Now the form isn't particularly strong, and the second was well beaten next time, but David Probert reckons he got there too soon and the horse is 2lb well-in here under his penalty and I can see his potential weakness here becoming his main strength.

He has never raced in a field of more than nine runners, but the way he travels in his races leads me to believe that this test - a massive field, with a strong pace, over the shorter trip - could really suit him.

His record suggests he is ground-versatile (though his trainer believes he prefer a bit of cut) and he is bred to be a good horse, being by New Bay out of a Group 2 winner - which is probably why he cost £240,000 as a yearling - and hopefully there is a lot more improvement in him after just 10 starts.

Win-only is way to go

I couldn't work out why he was entered at Newbury last week, as he would have picked up an extra 3lb penalty for this had he won there, so that was puzzling.

But the main question for me now is how do I get with him?

Win-only, each way, or even waiting until after Thursday's final decs?

And also you have to be mindful that his odds have obviously crashed since the Goodwood win - he was 33s before the race, 20s in a place afterwards and we are now being asked to take around 12s - and the trainer was lukewarm about going for this race a couple of weeks ago, saying he wasn't a definite runner.

That's a nagging doubt, and it may explain that Newbury entry. But he must surely be a highly probable runner now, and with Newmarket watering the whole course on Tuesday and some rain forecast on Friday and Saturday - though it was currently good, good to firm in places before that- I suggest a win-only bet now.

If he does drift at the weekend, though I can actually see him for vying for favouritism (just before filing I literally have seen Ryan Moore jocked up on him) I will probably press up.

Back him at 10/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook, or a similar price on the exchange (he was 14.5 there at 2.30pm on Tuesday but that was quickly snapped up).

Good Birthday to spoil party?

It is clearly a hugely competitive race, with no end of plausible alternatives, and it wouldn't surprise me if Good Birthday was one of those, even if he does have the opposite profile of Savvy Victory, as a 6yo with 35 runs under his belt.

If he runs, that is.

He is a quirky sort who went through a winless spell, but he obliged twice last year and he was very impressive over this trip at Yarmouth last Monday.

Like Savvy Victory, he is 2lb well-in here and maybe he can strike fourth time lucky in this race.

His best run to date was a third to Lord North off a 7lb higher mark than this in 2019 and he is pretty adaptable as regards the ground.

The rather big fly in the ointment with him, though, is he is unbackable at the moment as he is set to run at Goodwood on Wednesday. So that's a big 'ole watching brief right there.

We better hope that Aidan O'Brien comes over mob-handed for the 2yo Group races on the card, as otherwise we will be looking at some embarrassingly small fields.

There are only 29 entries combined in the Middle Park, the Cheveley Park and the Royal Lodge and O'Brien has eight of those. In the Royal Lodge he has four of the nine.

I imagine most punters will sit tight and wait to see what Ballydoyle put on the plane.

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Read Tony's antepost view of this Friday's racing at Newmarket