Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Keep tabs on overpriced pair in the King George

Losing Derby winner Desert Crown to a slight setback could have spelled a mini-disaster for the King George on Saturday, but the class has held up very well in his absence, if not the numbers.

Let's just be thankful we have six genuine Group 1 performers (to varying degrees) set to line up. After all, it would have been one fewer had travel issues not prevented Emily Upjohn getting to the Irish Oaks at the Curragh last weekend.

Of course, it is very disappointing to get only six entries on Monday - down from 15 at the previous forfeit stage - but those are the times we currently live in.

No arguing with the favourite

Derby third and Irish Derby winner Westover heads the heads the betting, and I have no massive issue with his price of 6/5.

It is probably a bit on the short side given the opposition but he was clearly unlucky not to finish a close second at Epsom and I was pretty taken with him at the Curragh, for all the 7-length runner-up Piz Badile didn't advertise the form when last of six in the Grand Prix de Paris last Thursday, though at least the sixth, Boundless Ocean, won a Group 3 last week by 3 ¼ lengths.

It was Westover first, the rest nowhere, at the Curragh last time, and he is the deserved favourite.

However, I certainly wouldn't be in a mad rush to take the 6/5 on the Sportsbook, though. He is the same price on the exchange at 2.285/4.

Second up in the betting is Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn, who really should be coming here unbeaten.

I had more issue with Frankie Dettori not putting the peddle to the floor on the filly at the 2f marker at Epsom, rather than the ground she lost at the start, and of course she gets the age and sex allowance here, too.

John Gosden has won this race with 3yo fillies Enable and Taghrooda in recent years, but you just wonder whether she has quite earned her official rating of 117 just yet. And she has never raced on anything quicker than good so far (more of the ground later).

The detractors will point to the Oaks winner Tuesday getting stuffed in the Irish Derby, but those of a sunnier disposition will point to the fact that that clearly wasn't her true running and the 3 ¼-length third Nashwa went on the win the Prix de Diane (albeit over a shorter trip).

Again, I am not overly enthused by her Sportsbook price of 15/8 - they obviously want to keep her onside - even if she is a fair bit bigger, win-only, on the exchange (3.5 at the time of publishing).

Mishriff may cause an upset

Bookmakers are not likely to make too many ricks in six-runner races but, if there is a price that can easily be challenged, it is surely the Sportsbook's 9/2 about Mishriff.

He won the Sheema Classic over this trip, he finished second in this race last season, he boasts the best form credentials courtesy of his six length Juddmonte win last term and he should be coming here on the back of an Eclipse win.

Initially, I thought he was given a bad ride by David Egan at Sandown - and presumably the owners may have too, as he isn't riding for them anymore - but he was simply hemmed in twice at crucial stages there, and I don't think he could have done much about it.

In flashing home to finish a neck second, he was clearly the best horse in the race and he sets the form standard here.

The one doubt is the 1m4f trip I suppose in a truly-run, top-tier Group 1 race. I appreciate he won over it in Dubai but he was outstayed by Adayar here last season and his premier effort came over an extended 1m2f at York.

How this race will be run will clearly be important, then.

Ryan Moore gave Broome a peach to win the Hardwicke from the front and he said the horse gave him his best feel ever there (and words to that effect) but the runner-up was last of six next time and the third, Hurricane Lane, was eighth of nine in France afterwards.

Whether the 6yo Broome is good enough to cope in this grade is open to doubt, and he may get taken on for the lead by Pyledriver too, and that is why the exchange layers are keen to get him in the book. Mind you, I wouldn't chase him out to 22.021/1 to get against him.

Pyledriver is the currently outsider of the sextet on the exchange at 25.024/1 and I'd agree with that assessment. For all he is a course and distance scorer, and a Coronation Cup winner - and he ran well to finish second in that contest at Epsom last time - he is not in Mishriff's Group 1 bracket.

Arc winner intrigues me...

Arc winner Torquator Tasso hopefully will complete the six on Saturday, and he is on course to run after a workout on Monday morning.

He put a poor reappearance performance behind him when winning in Germany last time, and he is actually rated the same as Mishriff, on a mark of 125, on that Longchamp defeat of Tarnawa.

So, on the figures he is actually the price stand-out here (at 15.5 on the exchange) on that 72/1 Arc win, but it came in heavy ground and he has never raced on anything officially quicker than good, which Timeform confirm (though his trainer reckons he has won at Hamburg on fast going).

There are obvious doubts about him on that score. At the moment, anyway.

The going is currently good to firm (good in places) at Ascot and they have put 10mm on the straight course on Monday, and plan to put 4mm on the round course each night.

Obviously, it is roasting on Monday and Tuesday, but one weather site has 23mm arriving on Friday, so that is a big headache for the track and punters alike, especially as others have next to nothing landing.

It is plain to me that Mishriff and Torquator Tasso are the overpriced pair, with the former by far the most solid. for ground reasons, at 9/2 - if there is a bet on Monday, he is it (he is a tiny bit bigger on exchange, too at 5.9) - but I am going to see what the weather does later in the week before punting.

You suspect that if and when this hot spell breaks, any rain could be rather substantial, and I'd want it as quick as possible for Mishriff over 1m4f.