Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Be patient with Saturday's Betfair Ascot Chase

• TC's antepost view of Saturday's Betfair Ascot Chase

• Betfair Hurdle winner in Kingwell market

• Small Present appeals at 9/1 at Haydock

When you are going through a lean spell, the first thing you have to do is to admit that to yourself, and your readers.

The strong temptation is to take a pull - and a break is never a bad option in these circumstances - but one approach you should never adopt is to try to punt and tip your way out of a poor run by heading for the shorties. That is the road to hell.

Process is a horrible word, worthy of an each-of-three quote alongside narrative and portfolio. But I know of normally sound judges who, in the middle of a bad spell, will go to any price in order to end a losing spell and regain a semblance of confidence by banging in an evens poke.

I can't have that and you just have to trust in your regular MO, that has presumably served you well in the past.

Confidence is obviously an important factor in punting but so is staying true to yourself, so the answer is to double-down on the study and maybe tighten up the selection and betting process (sorry) for a while, and keep on updating your profit and loss with a grimace on your face.

I'd just thought I'd get that out there as my current form/luck/judgement does leave more than a little to be desired.

Anyway, on to the weekend racing where the good ship Betfair are again sponsoring the big race in the shape of the Betfair Ascot Chase at 15:35 on Saturday.

Scant chance of rain at Ascot

Let's get the ground housekeeping out of the way first though, with trainers up and down the country screaming for some rain (indeed Fakenham has just abandoned their Friday fixture because of hard ground).

They may get it from Wednesday onwards for Haydock's ITV meeting on Saturday (the ground is currently good, and they may well consider watering there in midweek) but there is precious little due at Ascot - they may get a bit of rain later in the week, but nothing much it seems - where it is also good.

Ascot have acted quickly with the watering can there, putting on 5mm on Swinley Bottom Bend on Monday, and 10mm on the rest of the track.

I doubt that'll be the last of it.

We also have the Kingwell Hurdle from Wincanton on Saturday . It is already good (good to firm in places) there and they will be praying that the rain currently forecast to arrive there on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday lands.

Not a lot is expected but every little helps.

Fakir D'Oudairies and Shishkin dominate Betfair Ascot Chase market

We had 12 in the Betfair Ascot Chase on Monday morning (Hitman had been scratched after a little bleed on Saturday) and we are now left with seven.

Grim reading on the numbers front (again) for a Grade 1 race worth just £337 shy of 100k to the winner but at least they include Fakir D'Oudairies and Shishkin (pictured below), now second and third favourites for the Ryanair (behind Blue Lord) after Allaho was ruled out of Cheltenham on Monday morning.

That pair predictably dominate the Sportsbook betting at 5/4 and 2/1 respectively, but the improving Pic D'Orhy is not far behind at 5/2, with 7/1 Millers Bank, and 14s and bigger the other three.

I don't have any betting opinion at those prices, but let's hope all seven stand their ground at the weekend and those generous Sportsbook souls tempt each-way backers in with three places on Saturday.

Aye Right and Minella Drama have the option of Kelso on Friday though - the former is also in the handicap chase on this card - so perhaps that is fanciful talk.

I was quite surprised to see the novices' chase on the card attracting a mighty eight entries - Flash Collonges and Super Survivor are also in at Kelso on Friday, with the busy Mortlach having the option of Wincanton on Saturday or Newbury on Sunday - but this race has not been priced up at the time of publication.

The Ascot handicaps have filled pretty well, as they should do with 100k on offer for the chasers and 50k to the hurdlers, but again no prices there as yet, and I will file another column on Tuesday if I see anything of note there.

I have gone early with this column on Monday, so this is probably more haste on my part than the slowness of odds-compilers.

Betfair Hurdle winner set for Wincanton

We do have prices for Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle but I can't see too many arguing with 5/4 Knappers Hill, 11/8 First Street and 11/4 I Like To Move It (however one firm actually made Paul Nicholls' horse 3/1 early doors).

It is a surprise to see Saturday's Betfair Hurdle winner Aucunrisque in the race, and he is 8s if you fancy him for a quick follow-up on what could be similarly quick ground to that he faced at Newbury.

We also have the Grand National Trial at Haydock and, as someone pointed out on Twitter last week - actually it was Racing TV's Andy Stephens - it is a different beast this year as the handicap is run three days before the Aintree weights are revealed on February 21.

So the handbrake may still be on those with Liverpool aspirations.

In form 8yo appeals at Haydock

Aintree is an option for five of the 17 in here - Cloudy Glen, Fiddlerontheroof, Fortescue, Grumpy Charley and Quick Wave - so make of that what you will.

In addition to the aforementioned ground considerations, it is quite a difficult race to get a handle on as regards like runners as First Lord De Cuet, Quick Wave, The Two Amigos, Time To Get Up and Tim Pat are all in the Eider Chase a week on Saturday.

Furthermore, Fortescue is in at Ascot this weekend, Movethechains is set to run at Lingfield on Tuesday, Snow Leopardess is in the Pertemps qualifier on the Haydock card and Tim Pat could go to Musselburgh on Sunday.

That leaves me with a pretty small pool of horses to work with, especially as top weight Bristol De Mai looks unlikely to have his favoured testing ground. As it stands, anyway, though one site does has 12mm landing on Thursday alone.

The solid one to me at the moment is 9/1 poke Small Present, even if he will be 1lb out of the handicap if last year's winner (on a disqualification) Bristol De Mai runs, with 10st2lb the minimum weight.

He handles soft and heavy ground perfectly well but good going is not issue for him, and he is a relatively sprightly 8yo in good form with a good course record. This will be just his fifth run over fences, too.

He has never raced here over fences but he is two from three at Haydock over hurdles, he has plenty of form on decent ground and he has been given a break since a good third in the extended 3m3f of the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day off a 2lb lower mark.

He clearly stayed okay there - that was the furthest he has raced over - and I reckon he will have been primed for this. Indeed, he went off 10/3 on this card over hurdles last season, albeit he ran well below expectations.

However, when I mentioned tightening up on the selection and tipping and betting process earlier, I had a second look at him and decided there were potential negatives.

Firstly, 9s could look skinny if they do get more rain than expected and the field size stands up, he is not entirely sure to get the trip, he could be 3lb higher than when beaten last time. And the stable form could certainly be better.

No, I'll wait.

I will probably be back tomorrow with another ante-post column on the Ascot handicaps, but the prices will dictate that.

By the way, there are Betfair Exchange markets available on the Betfair Ascot Chase and Haydock's Grand National Trial.

Good luck. May be back tomorrow.