Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Frero to strike December Gold at Cheltenham

• TC on Saturday at Cheltenham with cold snap coming

• Frost covers could leave ground testing

• Venetia Williams' runner could thrive on step up

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There is a cold spell moving in, and the overnight temperatures at Cheltenham are set to drop to as low as -5 overnight on Thursday and Friday, so little wonder that frost covers are being considered.

You'd argue that they should already be down by now, perhaps. And the same applies to Bangor and Doncaster, the other courses that feature on ITV's two-day coverage starting on Friday.

The Sportsbook have priced up 10 of those races, despite the fact that Cheltenham's Saturday field sizes at the five-day stage look a little precarious.

The seven contests have attracted the following entries - 13-8-9-19-8-8-14 - and those are the numbers that you would hope to see at the overnight stage. Let's hope the majority stand their ground then.

Ground report

I am going to focus solely on one race on Saturday here though, not least because Friday's ante-post markets close at 10am on Wednesday, and the main betting heat of the weekend is likely to be the December Gold Cup at 13:50.

We also have a Betfair Exchange market on this as well as the Sportsbook's fixed-odds line.

The usual bit of ground housekeeping first, though.

It is currently good at Cheltenham. "Final watering will take place where necessary on Monday and Tuesday," was the latest note on the BHA site, presumably before those frost covers are deployed.

So while we would appear to have to look for good-ground horses, like my old mate Deyrann De Carjac - there is no rain forecast at all - sometimes the covers can apparently leave the ground underneath very testing, so that is not clear-cut.

DDC is definite contender

This 2m4f handicap chase features a few old friends that I have backed (large unsuccessfully) in the recent past, and I am sure many will focus on last month's Paddy Power Gold Cup as the main route into finding the winner of this contest.

We don't have the first two home from that race but we have seven coming back for more (including the third down to the eighth) and you can make a case for them all. The most obvious is the third Midnight River, who shaped very well there, but the market hasn't missed him at all at 4/1 (currently 5.79/2 on the Betfair Exchange).

Deyrann De Carjac, fifth here last month, is effectively 2lb lower here as he was 4lb out of the handicap in the Paddy Power and he is a definite contender from an Alan King yard beginning to swing into top gear. The 16/1+ on the Betfair Exchange is fair.

Frero has not been spoiling us

The problem I had when looking at this race is that so many held solid chances, but were relatively exposed and much of a muchness. It was difficult to isolate one.

However, one horse who doesn't have the same profile is Frero Banbou, a horse who has cost me a few quid in the last 12 months and needs to start delivering.

He is certainly not unexposed in handicapping terms, as the assessor only dropped him 1lb for being beaten 13 lengths at Ascot last time. Pretty mean stuff.

But what his two runs over 2m1f at Ascot this season have confirmed is that he doesn't have the pace to win those big near-minimum-trip handicaps, especially on decent ground. That should have dawned on me sooner.

After all, we all saw his run in the Grand Annual here last season, a race in which he was very moody early doors but somehow charged home to finish a six-length third.

Step up could see Frero deliver

That run, and earlier efforts, more than hinted that a step up in trip would bring about improvement then and, while his fourth from the front at Ascot last time, looked tame, it did confirm once again that he has been travelling more kindly for his jockey this season.

The extra 3f or so here will allow his rider to ride a more patient race, and it is not hard to see him progressing a good deal for the increased stamina test.

Indeed, his trainer Venetia Williams, whose stable is in a real winning groove now, said in a Racing Post stable tour on October 20 that she might look to step him up in trip. A 74k-to-the-winner handicap on Saturday seems a good place to start (the horse never even went beyond 2m2f in France, by the way, where he won over an extended 2m1f as a 4yo).

I suppose the ground is a slight concern as regards him running, as I do think he ideally needs more dig, but that is less of a concern over this new trip perhaps.

With that doubt, I suggest you keep stakes to a minimum but a win-only bet at 14/1 with the Sportsbook is advised.

He is currently 17.016/1 on the Betfair Exchange, and quite clearly any 14/1+ is highly acceptable - 12/1 is the lowest I would go, though, at this stage. As I have said, though, I am not going mad on the stakes front. Hopefully, we will get a run for out money at the very least.

I'll leave it there, but back soon for Friday's racing on the box.