Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back Faivoir at 33/1 in the Betfair Hurdle

• TC backs two in Betfair Hurdle antepost market

• Twenty-three confirmed to run in Saturday's big race

• Faivoir is number one bet at 33/1 each-way

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With Newbury unable to water and the live possibility of quick ground - the going is currently good and frost covers were put down on Sunday with overnight lows of -3C forecast for this week, with a dry day also in store for Saturday - I feared for the Betfair Hurdle numbers at the five-day stage.

Twenty-three to compete for £155k pot

So the course (who sent an email to trainers on Friday, warning them of the ground situation, and should therefore be given a hefty pat on the back for their honesty) and the sponsors must have been delighted to get 23 confirmations for the 155k pot on Monday.

That is still one below the maximum field size of 24, so not all roses, but they'd probably have settled for that last Friday, make no mistake.

Filey a worthy fav

The Betfair Sportsbook are trying to drum up some extra trade by offering five places at the ante-post stage, and they are also offering the clear industry fixed-odds top price of 10/3 about the favourite Filey Bay (although he is currently available at 5.69/2 win-only on the Betfair Exchange).

The talk in Dublin over the weekend was that this horse, a recent purchase by JP McManus, is well ahead of its current mark of 133 (131 in Ireland) after cosy wins at Doncaster and Wincanton before Christmas.

Given that the Doncaster win came on good ground and the trainer's superb record with his British runners, it is no surprise to see him head the market then. An unexposed, progressive 7yo who has had just the four minimum runs over hurdles in order to qualify, this looks an obvious long-range plot.

However, the same is probably true of a fair few others due to the size of the pot, and, given the advanced weather warning, you'd hope that the field size would stand up on Thursday.

After all, if you left your horse in on Monday, you knew you'd be odds-on to get good to firm of sorts given the frost covers are down and the Saturday forecast.

But this is racing, remember, and it is a fact that most of these are unproven on the likely ground on Saturday. So nervous times for all.

Uncertainty surrounds Irish entries

Icare Allen and Colonel Mustard are the two other Irish entries in the race and the other chat from the weekend is that the former declined the invitation to run at Leopardstown because they didn't think they had any chance against Gaelic Warrior in the 2m handicap (they were probably right).

However, who knows if Icare Allen will be brought over here - he has never raced on anything quicker than good to soft, he is 4lb higher in the UK and of course his owner JP McManus also has three others in here, including the favourite.

And JP tends to call the shots with his trainers. So while Willie Mullins may think the horse will be fine on the ground, that really isn't the issue.

The Betfair Exchange market suggests he is an unlikely runner, albeit in a relatively illiquid market - he is available at 22.021/1 there, and he ranges from 6/1 to 14/1 (Sportsbook go 14s) in the wider marketplace - so maybe last year's Triumph Hurdle fourth is a wait-and-see job if you fancy him.

Rubaud is very much on my radar after his second to my Supreme fancy Rare Edition at Kempton, and he could well shorten up if Charlie Longsdon's horse wins the Sydney Banks at Huntingdon on Thursday).

But the Sportsbook's odds-compilers were alive to that possibility on Tuesday morning and were ducking him, offering 9s when 12s was available in the marketplace. The 12/1 was taken just before I filed, though, so the 9s is probably fair.

You can give a chance to loads in this line-up

Given Fergal O'Brien's record with improving other people's horses, I thought Glorious Zoff was interesting enough at 66s on his hurdling debut for the yard (bigger on exchange) but he isn't a traveller and he again looked hard work on his Flat run for O'Brien at Kempton last month, so he could find this happening a touch too quickly for him if the ground is lively. Maybe they will change the hood for blinkers on him.

You can obviously give a chance to loads in here and Aucunrisque was another on my shortlist, as they say - given his improvement over fences this season, his hurdles mark of 138 looks very workable - but is the ground a worry for him, too?

His overall record suggests it definitely isn't (or shouldn't be) but he has been taken out twice on officially good ground this season. He is a relatively weak 19.018/1 on the Betfair Exchange, with no-one currently looking to back him.

Back Deere Mark with low stakes

After much deliberation, I am going to suggest a small win bet on Deere Mark at 25/1. He is a couple of points bigger on the Betfair Exchange at 28.027/1, so you obviously play there is the price remains north of 25s when reading this.

Now, again, I have no idea if he is an intended runner - and he will be 1lb out of the handicap if First Street runs (the minimum weight nonsense of 10st 2lb rears its head again) - so I have to stress to keep stakes low, and therefore eschew the option of an each way bet, for all the five places is a tempter.

I know it's a bit of a yawn-up but the ground is a worry for him, too.

His last two wins came on soft (indeed Timeform called Kempton heavy last time) but his best bumper form came on good ground, as did his second to Fennor Cross (a subsequent Grade 2 winner) at Cheltenham in October, though that race was run in worsening ground and it looked a lot deeper than good.

Anyway, the main angle with this horse is that he travels through his races beautifully, but often finds less than expected when hitting the front and when asked for his effort.

Indeed, regular pilot Sam Twiston-Davies (who unfortunately may be claimed for Master Chewy here) played him pretty late at Kempton last time and he still probably got there too soon.

He will be effectively 7lb higher here, in a clearly much better handicap, if First Street runs, but he does strike me as a horse with a lot of upside. And the way he tanks through his races gives you hope that better ground may well suit him.

And it wouldn't be the greatest surprise in the world if they consider some headgear on him if he were to run on Saturday.

I appreciate that may negate the dreamlike way he goes through his races, but I'd be pretty sure it would help him when the chips are down, which they definitely will be here if he is still there challenging after the last.

So, while the ground does cast a betting shadow for ante-post purposes, I am happy enough to have a small tickle on Deere Mark.

Has Skelton plotted another path to victory?

Sam Thomas and Dai Walters could well have won this race with Good Risk At All last season had he been qualified, so justice will hopefully be served here.

I was going to leave it there until I saw the Sportsbook made Faivoir a 50/1 chance, so I was going to suggest backing him each-way, five places, as he looks likely to handle the ground better than most (his best efforts have come on good) and he is surely an intended runner.

And that is more than half the battle here.

Annoyingly the 50s went before we published, so I had to take a pull. However, I have decided to back him at 33/1 each-way, five places. The more I looked the more I thought the general 33s in the marketplace was too big.

Dan Skelton did exceptionally well to get another 2lb off this horse's back before the weights were published, and I bet he was delighted that the handicapper played ball by dropping him that much for his fourth to No Ordinary Joe at Kempton (also in here) in December.

He wasn't given at all a hard time there, on his first start since Aintree in April - it was a proper eyecatcher, in fact, for all he is admittedly that type of ride - and this horse has a lot of strong handicap form, including a close third in last year's Morebattle off a 5lb higher mark.

I'd happily back him each-way at 25s, too.

Another plus is that he is one from one at Newbury, and this could be another great example of Skelton plotting a winning long-range path with a 2m handicap hurdler. He has form figures of 11141 on the quickest surfaces he has raced on, too.

In fact, Faivoir would be my number one bet in the race at 25/1+. Getting 50s would have been a bonus, but alas no.

The Sportsbook have priced up all seven Saturday ITV races from Newbury and Warwick, but running plans are obviously up in the air in most of those and Warwick's ITV contests attracted fields of just 13, 8 and five on Monday.

Can you guess which one of those was the novices' chase?