Tony Calvin Ante Post Tips: No need to be Koy at Ayr on Saturday

We lost two of the ante-post market leaders at the five-day stage of the Ayr Gold Cup - Fresh and Great Ambassador - but they probably wouldn't have been favourite after Erosandpysche was confirmed for the race (in entry terms, anyway) on Monday.

Along with 170 others, admittedly.

His possible participation has more than shades of Son Of Rest, who dead-heated for the race in 2018 after coming here after a second in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh the previous weekend, about it.

Son Of Rest went off the 5/1 favourite that year, having officially 10lb in hand, and the ground-versatile Erosandpysche could well start a similar price - he is currently 6s with the Betfair Sportsbook, who are paying five places - after chasing home the 3 ¼-length winner Highfield Princess in the Group 1 contest in Ireland on Sunday, a race in which he was actually giving the triple Group 1-winning mare 3lb.

He can race off 100 here, and that would appear something of a gift. Indeed, his updated mark is now 110 (up another 7lb), so he is exactly the same amount well-in as Son Of Rest was.

Mind you, I imagine connections will want to see how the horse is on Thursday morning before committing their big improver to the race, so I personally would hold all bets on him for the moment until it becomes a day-of-race market at 10am in two days' time.

And all his best form has clearly come at 5f too, remember. They won't be hanging around over 6f in this cavalry charge.

William Haggas' impressive recent Haydock winner, the lightly-raced 3yo Khanjar, is right behind him in the market at 8/1, alongside Commanche Falls.

It is not a race I want to back anything in at the five-day stage to be honest with you, so we will leave it there until we know the full details.

One of those is the ground.

Oh, and before that, I should mention there is also an exchange market on the Ayr Gold Cup, in which Erosandpysche is an 8.88/1 chance, with Khanjar actually heading that line on 8.27/1 at the moment.

The current going for the three-day meeting starting on Thursday is good to soft but a dry week is currently forecast, so bear that in mind. It looks like mudlarks need not apply.

The Betfair Sportsbook have priced up eight of the nine weekend races - they obviously can't do anything with the consolation Ayr Silver Cup - but it is really hard to get a handle on most as so many horses have double and triple entries, if not more.

And that makes it tough, as one of my strict rules of midweek ante-post betting is never get involved with horses who have more than one engagement.

Big fields can be a minefield

More than anything, the key to ante-post punting is about minimising no-shows. And Ayr has attracted some big five-day fields, and we are likely to get enhanced place terms, and maybe better prices, if we wait.

But let's have a look.

The horse I liked most from all the races is probably Koy Koy in the 1m Virgin Bet Handicap at 13:20 at Ayr but I initially wasn't sure that his price of 12/1 was particularly tempting given it looks a wide-open 1m handicap that has attracted 39 entries.

But he does look to hold very strong claims and there is a maximum field of just 14 on the day, so I think he is worth a small-stakes win only bet at 12s with the Betfair Sportsbook.

There is a nagging doubt though, which I will come to in a moment.

Crucially, this is his only weekend entry and he looks ready to strike again after a good run at Newbury last month, a race in which his jockey got off and said he raced too freely, when he was positioned in front and on the outside. Maybe they will try him in headgear.

A winner of a five-runner race at Newmarket, off just a 2lb lower mark than this, three starts ago, I am not sure what went wrong at Goodwood next time - perhaps he simply didn't like the track - but his run at Newbury gives him an excellent chance. And he will love the drying ground.

He was beaten only 1 ¾ lengths under a 7lb claimer, and the winner, Atrium, followed up off a 4lb higher mark at Doncaster last week.

And it is not just the winner that has franked the Newbury form.

Only three horses have come out of that race so far, and the sixth, Oh This Is Us, was another and he won at Ascot.

But back to that nagging doubt.

Boughey's dilemma

Trainer George Boughey also has the Sportsbook's 5/1 favourite Diamond Ranger in here (Ben Curtis is currently jocked up on both) and that is an obvious worry, but Diamond Ranger is also entered at Newbury over 7f on Saturday and hopefully the jolly will go there (both of his wins have come over 7f) instead, or maybe Boughey will run both. They are in different ownership, after all.

In summary, I am going to have a small interest on Koy Koy at 12s. I wouldn't go lower than 10/1.

Nothing else at Ayr appealed at this stage.

The current going for the start of Newbury's two-day meeting on Friday is good to soft (good in places) but the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday has taken a nosedive in the last few hours, with one site suggesting 17mm combined on those days at 9am this morning (others less, admittedly), though they have just downgraded that to 8mm.

So who knows what the ground will be.

The four ITV races have been priced up but the three Group races do not interest me at this stage, and the 26-runner 1m2f Dubai Duty Free Handicap is far more my bag.

This is full of lightly-raced improvers but there have to be serious doubts about whether the two that caught my eye, Savvy Victory and Oneforthegutter, will run.

There seems to be no reason for impressive Goodwood winner Savvy Victory to run here ahead of the Cambridgeshire next week - though this is a fair pot, I guess - and Oneforthegutter has three entries this week and they could decide to step him up in trip over 1m4f at Newbury on Friday after his improved, staying-on effort at York last time, a race in which he was probably disadvantaged by his track position.

Just the one modest bet then. Good luck.