Scottish National Big Race Verdict: Two Ayr fancies at 14/1 and 6/1 for ITV feature

---

Sportsbook are five places E/W for Ayr feature on ITV

A field of 21 are set to take their chance over the Ayr four miles for the Scottish Grand National and with the rain forecast on Saturday to go with Friday's prediction, good to soft will be a minimum starting point for any plays on the marathon.

The Sportsbook have five places for each-way bets and from the early exchanges from the traders, money for Git Maker was notable from 20/121.00 into 14/115.00 and a move mirrored by Promontory, while the drift on Isaac Des Obeaux saw the Paul Nicholls' chaser go out from 13/27.50 to 10/111.00.

---

Trainers in form and historical winners 

Willie Mullins has won the prize for the past two years with Captain Cody and Macdermott - a pair of young horses aged seven and six respectively and the sole Closutton torchbearer this year is Road To Home who finished close in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham to Ask Brewster.

Lucinda Russell last captured this prize in 2021 with Mighty Thunder - surprisingly her first ever winner of the Scottish slugfest, while Paul Nicholls landed back-to-back victories with Vicente in 2016 and 2017.

In terms of the trends for age, since 2003 seven horses aged 10 or 11 have been successful with the last veteran winning in 2019 for Nicky Richards and Takingrisks.

Seven eight-year-olds have landed the prize since 2000 while Macdermott, a six-year-old winning in 2024, was the first of that victorious since Earth Summit in 1994.

As a guide, here are the latest numbers for trainers in form and out with Nicky Richards sparkling:

- Paul Nicholls: 7-38 last two weeks at 18%
- Lucinda Russell: 1-15 last two weeks at 7%
- Sam Thomas: 0-4 last two weeks
- Willie Mullins: 10-90 last two weeks at 11%
- Warren Greatrex: 0-16 last two weeks
- Cath Williams: 0-12 last two weeks
- Georgina Nicholls: 0-5 last two weeks
- Nicky Richards: 6-9 last two weeks at 67%
- Tom Lacey: 3-7 last two weeks at 47%
- Donald McCain: 6-24 last two weeks at 25%
- Nick Scholfield: 1-8 last two weeks at 13%
- Joseph O'Brien: 9-60 last two weeks at 15%
- Jonjo O'Neill: 6-36 last two weeks at 17%
- Jamie Snowden: 5-24 last two weeks at 21%
- Philip Hobbs: 2-15 last two weeks at 13%

---

Key form lines

The Kim Muir form over 3m2f is one the punters have latched onto with Kim Roque, who was fourth at Cheltenham behind Ask Brewster, supported into the position as the favourite for the race at 9/25.50.

He fared best of the horses held up that day with the first three ridden prominently, and while a mistake was made at the 15th, he never looked like winning.

His Timeform weight adjusted figure stands at 156p with the beaten horses Road To Home and Ask Brewster both on 150. There is an argument to say Ask Brewster was at a big advantage by making the running, and Road To Home has a stamina doubt for me.

Montregard has a good record and strike-rate over fences with four wins from 10 and his last victory was the 3m Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase on good to soft at Ascot from 128. A rise of 4lbs is not punitive, but it's a big step up in distance and holds a Timeform figure of 152.

There are a few headgear horses in here too. Blaze The Way has a first-time set of cheekpieces. Our Power for Sam Thomas, at the grand old age of 11 has blinkers on for the first time and has form in the race when finishing third 12 months ago, and there are also a "first time since the wind op" runners.

---

Rain needed for Midlands National winner 

Isaac Des Obeaux hosed up by 8L in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in soft (Git Maker third) and a rise of 7lbs puts him more towards the head of the weights.

He'll need a bucketload of rain and that's the worry. Paul Nicholls revealed in his exclusive Betfair blog: "He has gone up seven pounds on his win at Uttoxeter, but I don't think that would have stopped him from winning that race.

"If we had lots of rain and it became very testing, he would have a big chance. He probably has a chance anyway. He had a hard race at Uttoxeter, but he seems to have come out of it well, but I just hope it is not too soon for him."

You can also click here to read what Paul Nicholls has to say regarding his other runners for the Ayr meeting.

---

Pace Map and Tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: Quebecois, King Of Answers, Isaac Des Obeaux, Ask Brewster, Git Maker, Chasingouttheblues.

PROMINENT RACERS: Quebecois, King Of Answers? Isaac Des Obeaux, Our Power, Road To Home, Herakles Westwood, Katate Dori, Stolen Silver, Montregard, Maximilian, Kap Vert, Promontory, Magna Sam.

MID DIVISION: Katate Dori, Chasingouttheblues.

HOLD-UP: Blaze The Way, Maximilian, Gabbys Cross, Kim Roque, Git Maker, King Of Answers?

---

Russell chaser a big chance

With a lot of potential pace and prominent racers, there will be no hiding place for those with doubts about last home for 4m.

I tipped King Of Answers earlier this week in the my antepost column and not a lot has changed there apart from the price - as he has drifted to a decent 13/27.50.

His run in the 3m6f National Hunt Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham behind Holloway Queen was a clear personal best, and while the winner looked good, King Of Answers was undone by having far too much ground to make up against a classy winner.

King Of Answer was quicker at the final two furlongs at Cheltenham, and considering that was the furthest trip he tried, I think there might be more to come over the extra two furlongs.

The hold-up tactics might need to be revised as previously King Of Answers made the running to rout a field in a 0-150 at Kelso previously - the second win over the Borders' track fences from the front or prominent, so we could expect to see more forceful tactics and his Timeform weight adjusted puts him in with a big shot at 155p.

My other one to make the shortlist here is Promontory for Donagh Meyler - a recent armchair winning jockey in the Irish National.

Promontory won the Dublin National at Leopardstown over 3m5f in March, and while not a particularly strong race, he is lightly-raced over fences and sneaks in here of 10-10 and a mark of 127 - which is 13lb higher from Leopardstown.

He was a winner on good ground over hurdles last term and that indicated some latent stamina. His Dublin Nash victory was all about staying as he was hard at work just before the straight and pumped along, but he was miles clear at the line and ran a final furlong at 15.20 seconds - over a second faster than the runner-up Slotty Dotty.

---

Now read more tips and previews here!

---