Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's trio of bets for Northumberland Plate day

• 10/111.00 Ante-post tip set to relish 2m and is backed again

• Tony fancies Sunny at 8/19.00 the most in Vase

• Raatea in the opener a rare jolly tip from Tony

Appier, my 66/167.00 each-way recommendation for the Northumberland Plate at 14:05, got balloted out of the race on Thursday morning, and that means you will get your money back.

If this doesn't happen automatically (though I am told it is a manual process for the layers) then contact your bookmaker and do not take no for an answer.

You are entitled to a refund, end of story.

Newcastle - 14:05: Back Adjuvant (also advised ante-post)

More of Appier later (he runs in the consolation Vase), but I was glad to see Adjuvant confirmed, my other ante-post play at 10/111.00 win-only.

There really is a huge amount to like about his chance, and the only negative that I could find - well, other than the 18 rivals, all of whom have chances of sorts - is that he has never raced on the all-weather.

I do think proven course form is important here and, in addition, his trainer has only a six per cent strike rate on Newcastle's all-weather.

But Michael Bell seemingly isn't concerned at all (though he has taken him for an away day at Chelmsford in preparation for this, so it must have been playing on his mind a touch) and the main betting angle and upside with him is the step up to 2m for the first time. And the fact that he comes here in such great nick.

His second to HMS President (runner-up at Royal Ascot last week) in May obviously reads very well, as does the fact he went one better over 1m6f at Newmarket last time, in a manner which suggested this step up to 2m will surely suit.

Raised 5lb for that success, he look to remain well handicapped (the runner-up, Pons Aelius, won at Goodwood last time); indeed, he is actually 1lb well-in here.

I went back and had a look at his strong-finishing third to Soulcombe and Caius Chorister in the Melrose at York last season, exceptionally strong handicap form, and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't relish the extra 2f.

It's obviously a hugely competitive handicap but he'd be my idea of the favourite, and having 3lb claimer Billy Loughnane on board is clearly no negative. Indeed, he is 10 from 28 around here. And Loughnane will be content enough with his draw in seven, I imagine.

I'd be happy to suggest a bet on Adjuvant at 8.07/1 or bigger on the exchange but the each way angle of 6/17.00 on the Sportsbook, paying six places, appears the better option to me.

I was all set to put suspect stayer Second Slip up as a back-to-lay on Thursday morning - indeed, I had basically written the argument - but he was pulled out lame a couple of hours later at 12.50pm, so it is just the one play for me, twice over.

Newcastle - 13:30: Back Mostly Sunny

Whilst we are on the subject of horses with stamina to prove, it makes sense to return to Appier in the Vase at 13:30.

Now, like Adjuvant, he has a lot going for him.

He ran a career best when winning easily at Lingfield last time, he is 2lb well-in, and is also two from two at the track. He is nicely drawn in three, too.

The doubt with him is that his best efforts have come over 1m4f - though, having watched the races back, he certainly hasn't folded when running well enough in his two starts over 1m6f - and his Sportsbook price of 9/25.50 disappointed me a touch in truth, though I suppose he was never going to be missed after shortening from 66/167.00 to 20/121.00 for the Plate during the week.

I will still back him at 6.05/1 or bigger on the race so I don't lose on the race if he wins - I obviously wouldn't put you off doing the same, but 5.04/1 would be my cut-off point for getting involved - but my tip is Mostly Sunny at 8/19.00 each way, four places.

I probably fancy him more than Appier, the more I look at his claims.

He is one of three possible pace angles in the race - so if Jason Hart wanted to go on from stall four, that would be fine - and he returned to form at Goodwood last time, an effort that means he is 1lb well-in here.

He is only 1lb higher then when winning by the thick-end of 3 lengths here in November (just four starts ago) and trainer Heather Main is three from nine since June 16th and she has an impressive strike rate of 18pc on Newcastle's all-weather.

In fact, that 18pc record (13 from 73) is even better when you consider she has had another 26 finish in the top four at this track. That helps harden the each way suggestion a touch.

I'd still be interested in Mostly Sunny at 6/17.00 with the extra place on offer, so take that 8/19.00. In fact, there is 9/110.00 available in a place in the marketplace, and on the exchange, too.

Newcastle - 12:20: Back Raatea

Raatea looks very solid to me in the opener at 12:20, with the only slight niggle that he can be slowly away.

He has form figures of 4314 here (never beaten more than 2 lengths) and he won this race last year.

He was back to form when winning in a hood-cheekpieces combination at Haydock last time (retained here) and the 3lb rise to 93 looks manageable. He was rated 94 after winning here by 2 lengths last season.

There are five prominent racers in here (maybe Animate will lead), so he should get a good pace to aim at.

I backed him at 4/15.00 each way on Thursday and, as I make him more of a 5/23.50 chance - the Sportsbook are currently ducking him at that price, with 10/34.33 available in the marketplace - so I think he is a fair bet at 4.03/1 or bigger, a rare recommendation at those odds for this column. He trades at 4.216/5 as this column goes live.

Mind you, I have a terrible record with shorties.

He may well drift back out but 3/14.00 or bigger is a decent play to give trainer Julie Camacho and owner Martin Hughes yet another winner. I just hope he doesn't give away too much ground at the start.

Newcastle - 12:55: No Bet

I won't be having a bet, as the attractive early prices have gone (he opened up at 9/25.50) but Tiber Flow looks very solid at around 4.57/2 in the 12:55.

Brad The Brief is the class horse of the race, and he is unpenalised for his Group 2 success, but we haven't seen him for a while and I'd probably just have Tiber Flow as the marginal favourite.

He has run well on both starts this season and he is only a short-ahead away from being unbeaten in three starts around here.

Newmarket - 12:40: No Bet

Over to the Newmarket July course, where we start with a 2yo Listed fillies' race at 12:40.

It will not surprise regular readers that I won't be getting involved here but Star Of Mystery is too short at the general 5/42.25 - the exchange layers are already offering 2.568/5 - and I'd prefer Goodwood winner What A Question at 9/25.50.

And the William Haggas newcomer Rare Jewel is interesting. The early 25/126.00 was taken about her.

Newmarket - 13:15: No Bet

Once again, I would rather be against, rather than for, another Godolphin favourite in the shape of New London in the 13:15.

The St Leger runner-up undoubtedly has the best form but he has an absence to overcome, a 5lb penalty, and four decent rivals. And does a wind op and a first-time tongue also bother you?

Al Aasy is very talented on his day, Kemari could get the run of the race from the front, Outbox (another pace angle) won this race in 2021, and Phantom Flight is interesting to 1m4f for the first time. Indeed, the latter has already been nibbled in from 10/111.00 to 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook.

Newmarket - 13:50: No Bet

Forward-goer Audience could scupper this plan, but if I owned Pogo, I would be telling my trainer and jockey to go from the front again on him in the 7f Group 3 at 13:50.

All his best form has come when he has made the running - as he did in this race last season, and when beating Sacred in the Challenge Stakes in October - and he hasn't adopted those tactics in any of his three starts in 2023, including in the Queen Anne last week.

He wants good ground or quicker, so he doesn't want any more watering on Friday night. No rain is due.

However, I won't put him up here, as if it is on the quick side on Saturday morning - and apparently it was faster than the going description of good to soft there on Thursday - then we could lose the favourite Aldaary (who wants ease) from the race and that would incur a hefty Rule 4.

Good luck.

Read Ryan Moore on his five Curragh rides for Saturday 1 July

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