Antepost Tips: Tony Calvin's 10/1 and 66/1 Northumberland Plate pair

• Northumberland Plate is TC's antepost focus

• Uncertainty around entries after Ascot

• But TC finds two to back including 66/167.00 shot

Nose to the grindstone once again after a weekend off, of sorts, and I am happy to focus solely on the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday (at the earlier time of 14:05 for some reason) in this column.

We obviously also have Classic action in the shape of the two-day Irish Derby meeting at the Curragh this weekend. But the next entry stage for the Classic is on Tuesday and I imagine it will be a "watch and wait" anyway, with Aidan O'Brien likely to be mob-handed.

Mind you, he hasn't won it for the past two years, so maybe he won't have it all his own way, even with Auguste Rodin currently heading the betting at 4/111.36 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Ascot aftermath means turnout uncertain

There was the small matter of 80 still in the big Newcastle handicap on Monday morning but at least we are now dealing with a slightly more manageable 48, even if we are playing a guessing game as to which horses will turn out again so quickly after running at Royal Ascot.

Of course, last year, the Royal meeting's loss was Newcastle's gain as Trueshan (pictured below) came here and won off a mark of 120 but for every top-class winner, there are the likes of more lightly-raced improvers such as Hugo Palmer's Caravan Of Hope, who won this race off 89 in 2020.

He hasn't been seen since, mind you. Not in the UK anyway.

In short, it's always a very tricky puzzle to solve as there is often trouble in running in a big field around here (there is a maximum field of 20) and you can know your fate very early as they run to the first bend.

Favourite out to sustain Haggas' strikerate

Post Impressionist was the marginal ante-post favourite for this race before the midday confirmations on Monday, but the fact that he was available at 9/110.00 in a place (Betfair also have an Exchange market on this race) tells you the story about how competitive this handicap is.

We haven't seen him since he ran away with a decent York handicap in October, and someone obviously expects him to run well off an 8lb higher mark here.

He looked a different horse after the cheekpieces were applied for his last two starts, and he ran well when second to Eldar Eldarov here last May in what turned out to be a very hot novice.

But he wouldn't quite be for me at this stage, though William Haggas has a superb strike of 32 per cent at this track (60 from 188) , so don't let me put you off if you like his chances.

Given the absence, he is the kind of horse I would want to back only when the race becomes non-runner, money-back if he is still in the race after 10am on Thursday, rather than the 13/2 he is now with the Sportsbook.

As I said earlier, gauging quite what horses will turn out again quickly after Ascot is problematic, as I imagine the trainers will make a call on them later in the week when they monitor their well-being.

They include Palmer's 2022 consolation Vase winner Zoffee, sixth in the Ascot Stakes and current 8/19.00 second favourite here alongside Golden Rules.

Others to have run at the Royal meeting, in no particular order, include Law Of The Sea (a horse I like), Calling The Wind, Themaxwecan, Berkshire Rocco, Hadrianus, and First Emperor.

And Rock Chant had a spin at Chelmsford on Thursday, La Hacienda ran at Down Royal on Friday, Sir Chauvelin was out at Ayr on Saturday, while Blow Your Horn won at Pontefract on Sunday.

Second Slip may struggle for stamina

By some distance, I thought Second Slip was the most interesting runner in the field, but stamina is surely a huge doubt for him.

He looks a perfectly strong stayer at 1m4f (without giving the impression he is crying out for a lot further) but he is certainly not bred to last out the 2m trip. However, the in-form James Fanshawe, who won this race in 2017, thinks different and that got me wondering.

He was a very progressive middle-distance horse in 2021, when his course form figures read 3121. And he was beaten just ½ length, and ¾ length, in those two defeats.

He was punted over 1m4f at Kempton on his return and I bet his backers were not necessarily overjoyed by the ride he got, as he travelled strongly on the inside , off the pace, and never got into a challenging position.

That was a very promising lung-opener on his first start since September 2021 (he must have had a problem last year) and the handicapper clearly agreed, as he refused to drop him, despite being beaten 5 ½ lengths.

If he stays, he is a massive player.

I will not tip him now but I can see myself having a back-to-lay trade on him in-running come the weekend as, while his stamina bothers me, the talent for him to be winning handicaps off 94 certainly does not. He is currently 15.014/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Newcastle - 14:05: Back Adjuvant

The layers are wary of Baronet Prescott's seasonal debutant Omniscient at 12/113.00 and Adjuvant is the other at the top of the market at 10/111.00.

There is a lot to like about the latter, whose second to HMS President (second at Royal Ascot last week) in May obviously reads very well, as does the fact he went one better over 1m6f at Newmarket last time, in a manner which suggested this step up to 2m will surely suit.

Raised 5lb for that success, he looks well handicapped still (the runner-up, Pons Aelius, won at Goodwood last time and is also in here) and the only negative that I could put to his name is that he has never raced on the all-weather.

And I do think proven course form is important here (his trainer only has a six per cent strike rate on Newcastle's all-weather).

However, I'd have him as my clear favourite in here so, with that in mind, I am going to recommend a win-only bet at 10/111.00. He is currently a similar price on the exchange, and it is a generally available price. He would still appeal at 8/19.00 at this stage, maybe even a point less.

He really does look set to improve for his first attempt at 2m.

I went back and had a look at his strong-finishing third to Soulcombe and Caius Chorister in the Melrose at York, exceptionally strong handicap form, and I anticipate a fair degree of improvement as he goes up in trip.

And, for what it is worth, I see 3lb claimer Billy Loughnane is already jocked up.

Michael Bell won this race (on turf, obviously) in 2007 with the 5/16.00 favourite Juniper Girl and it wouldn't surprise me if Adjuvant went off at a similar price.

Newcastle - 14:05: Back Appier

I like a few others in here, it has to be said, but most of those may well struggle to get into the top 20 in the weights come Thursday morning, so I will keep my thoughts on those to myself, with a possible view to tipping them in the Vase.

No, in fact, I simply cannot let Appier go untipped at 66/167.00, even if he does need six to come out to get a run.

Unless, I am missing something the 66/167.00, which is available in nine places in the marketplace, is surely a silly price.

If he doesn't get in, and is balloted out into the Vase, you simply get your money back.

If he does run, then he is 2lb well-in, having got a 5lb penalty for winning at Lingfield last time while the handicapper put him up 7lb.

His stamina, and pedigree, for this job worries me, as with Second Slip - his two efforts over 1m6f to date have been okay but nothing more - but I am more than willing to risk him at the price.

He is clearly a much-improved performer this season and he was dominant at the line over 1m4f at Lingfield last time, having previously won at this track. In fact, he is two from two here.

He really should be a win-only bet given the trip doubt, but the price is such that I have to tip him each-way, four places, at 66/167.00.

He is currently 70.069/1 on the Betfair Exchange as this goes live. He'd be a bet for me at 33/134.00 if I am being honest.

I'll be back on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning with the weekend column.

Or maybe even Tuesday with another ante-post piece if I see another bet.

Good luck.