Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's quartet of bets on 2,000 Guineas day

• ITV Racing from Newmarket, Goodwood & Thirsk

• Quality 2,000 Guineas but no bet race for Tony

• Two 20/1 tips for Newmarket

• Two Plays in Thirsk's Hunt Cup at 15:40

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I imagine there is an expectation - neh, a demand - from editors that their racing correspondents and tipsters must hold a strong opinion in all the major races.

Luckily, the betting.betfair hierarchy are an enlightened bunch, he says, softening them up for the inevitable - and thankfully they are also happy to proceed on the basis that I only tip when I bet myself, a policy that all should obviously adopt, either in print, TV or podcasts - as I really don't have a betting take in the 2,000 Guineas.

And that is before the guessing game that is the weather.

On Thursday afternoon, one site had 25mm for Saturday (and most predicted rain all the way from Friday into Sunday) but the forecast has improved markedly overnight, so we may be looking at good ground for the weekend.

But that could easily change once again.

Anyway, it is currently good to firm (good in places) and the current estimate of rain is around 12mm Friday to Sunday.

Holloway could interest me in 'Without' market but no bet in 2,000 Guineas for now

Newmarket, 16:40

Aidan O'Brien could easily have a 1-2 with Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear, but the former looks short enough at 6/4 with the Sportsbook for a horse touted for the Triple Crown (though he is nudging 2/1 on the exchange) and you have to take a lot on trust to be backing the latter, last year's best juvenile, but one surely full of pace and also not seen since last August.

Mind you, I am a touch underwhelmed by what is ranged against them.

The Dewhurst 1-2 of Chaldean and Royal Scotsman surely wouldn't even scare the cowardly lion in the Wizard Of Oz, Sakheer is in the same questionable stamina boat as Little Big Bear, and the vibes are not overly-strong about the Godolphin colts Silver Knott and Noble Style. The latter's Gimcrack win has worked out well but his prep has not been smooth-sailing by all accounts.

Indestructible looked good in the Craven, but a few of these in here would have done that, and more, given the chance, and it just looks a wishy-washy Guineas (outside of the big two perhaps) going into the race.

Of course, Auguste Rodin could turn out to be a superstar down the line and it wouldn't be the greatest surprise if Little Big Bear's stamina lasted out if Newmarket gets little meaningful rain (his stamina does give you hope he will stay a mile and he is the best of these as it stands, and I wouldn't be laying him at 11/2 on the exchange), but I couldn't see a bet.

I was going to look at the solid if not spectacular Holloway Boy, who has form on good to firm and heavy, without the O'Brien pair when the Sportsbook go up with that line - the Chesham winner ran well in defeat thereafter and wouldn't have had to have progressed much to fill the frame here - but it's a big Kevin Pullein-like no bet from me for now.

And that was cemented when Holloway Boy's collapsed through Thursday. He opened up at 33/1 with the Sportsbook in the morning, and the subsequent 25s and 22s was taken, and he is now just 16/1.

Karl Burke has had a couple of good 3yo winners in Cold Case and Indestructible this season and this one may have been working alongside them, with all three horses bringing each other forward perhaps.

I'll keep an eye out for the "Without" betting though - it's not up yet - and maybe odds of around 7/1 would be enough for me to back him each way without the O'Brien duo.

Spencer magic needed for 20/1 Palace House tip

Newmarket, 16:00 - Tony's Tip: Arecibo @ 21.020/1 or bigger

All 17 stood their ground in the Palace House Stakes at 16:00 and that is one hell of a puzzle to solve as a result.

In fact, there are far too many 6f races at Newmarket, full stop.

The pace in the Palace House looks middle to high, and that could have scuppered the dart I was going to go throw at Arecibo, drawn in two, who needs to come fast and late on the back of a strongly-run race, and he will certainly be coming late with Jamie Spencer back on board.

He does go well here, he is ground-versatile, and he comes here in fair form after just not managing to get to the all-the-way-winner Live In The Dream at Pontefract last time. You can forgive that around that speed-favouring course.

This does look a minefield of a race, and Spencer will need all his guile to weave a late path through 16 rivals, but he looks a fair enough price at 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange - he is 22s in a place - given his back-class and the other aforementioned positives. He is 16/1 with the Sportsbook who are paying four places.

I think you will comfortably get bigger than 20/1 win-only on the exchange, but he really is just a small-stakes bet. Hopefully, Tees Spirit in five will give the low-drawn horses, of which the favourite Twilight Calls is one, a good tow into the race,

Gale Force could blow rivals away if ground suits

Newmarket, 14:15

Gale Force Maya is as solid as you like in the 6f Listed race at 14:15. Well, on decent ground she is, anyway.

Officially, the best horse in the race (though she does carry a 3lb penalty), her form figures on the Rowley course read 2-3-1-2-1-5-4 and her reappearance record stats are 1-1-3-4-1.

Whatever way you dice it, that is a very strong look, and she could also get her own way out in front if her jockey so desires. He should. I know she is not a front-runner as such but she is a forward-goer and I can't see much other pace in here.

She really should run her race and go close.

However, she is pretty much priced accordingly at around 4/1 on the exchange in a tight-knit race on official ratings, and I would be very worried if they got more rain than is currently forecast, as all her best form has been on good or quicker, so you may want to hold fire from backing her and see what lands from above by race-time on Saturday.

And, as a 7yo now with three years on all of the field, I suppose there is a possibility she could need the run more than usual. And that penalty closes the class gap, too.

Well-treated Lawrence chanced at 20/1

Newmarket, 14:50 - Tony's Tip: Saint Lawrence @ 21.020/1 or bigger

Like Arecibo, I am worried about the draw in one for Saint Lawrence in the 6f handicap at 14:15, as I can't see much pace around him and being drawn on the flanks rarely does it for me in these big-field sprints.

But gelding had a habit of improving some of his family members and he shaped promisingly enough after his own cojones op in the Abernant Stakes here on his return, coming back for more late doors after being outpaced, finishing off his race well.

You couldn't give him away in the market near the off either - he drifted to 40/1 and a Betfair SP of 57.98 - so he was presumably expected to need it, and this is a horse who looks well treated off 103 back into handicap company.

He was beaten just a length in the Palace House Stakes on this card last season, and just six lengths in the Group 1 King's Stand, so I am going to take my chance at 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is 16/1 with the Sportsbook who are paying six places.

I think he is essentially a good-ground horse - and you may want to wait until you see what the ground is doing on Saturday - but I'll take my chances for a few quid now and hope the ground gets no worse than good to soft.

Above is the other I considered at a similar price, as he blew his race when getting worked up in the stalls here on his return last month and, despite due to go down 2lb in future handicaps (Saint Lawrence is also set to be dropped 1lb), he is on a fair mark.

Hendrix can call the tune in 1m1f handicap

Newmarket, 15:25

There is a strong argument for keeping it simple in the 1m1f handicap at 15:25, and siding with the two horses that are 4lb well-in here, Jimi Hendrix and Empirestateofmind.

I prefer Jimi Hendrix of the pair, as he really did bolt up in first-time blinkers at Newbury, but there are a few others in here to consider - notably Turntable, who was progressive when with Chris Wall last season - and he was never going to be missed in the market at 4/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook (there is bigger around).

I'll sit this race out but the ground-versatile (has won on soft and good to firm) Jimi Hendrix has to be a major player. I couldn't put you off him at around 5/1 on the exchange.

Duo chanced in Thirsk's Hunt Cup

Thirsk, 15:40 - Tony's Tips: Symbolize @ 10.09/1 & Tuscan @ 17.016/1

ITV are also fleshing out their Saturday coverage with two handicaps from Goodwood and Thirsk (going is currently good, but more rain due on Friday and Saturday) and, with current forecasts, I am working on the basis of good to soft on both tracks, maybe soft at Goodwood.

In the 1m2f handicap at 15:05, Farasi Lane has been running okay on the all-weather and has form on deep ground, including at this track, so I was initially looking to side with him, but his price is nothing flash at all. In fact, I was underwhelmed by the general quotes of 6/1.

The 15-runner Thirsk Hunt Cup at 15:40 is obviously a competitive heat and Northern Express was never going to be missed by the layers after his luckless run on the rail at Musselburgh last month, and Tuscan wasn't given a hard time of it at all at Haydock last week, but Symbolize made most appeal.

A course winner, he was a very good handicapper on his day for Andrew Balding, second in the 1m Balmoral off a mark of 102 in 2021, and I imagine his fourth over 7f here last month, his first start for Julie Camacho, was a tee-up job for this.

He was dropped 2lb for it and, back to a mile with some ease in the ground off a mark of 97, he is primed to go well.

Back him at 10.09/1 or bigger. He is 10/1 in the marketplace, and pretty much 9s across the board. He is 9/1 with the Sportsbook.

I find the David O'Meara stable impossible to read but Tuscan certainly shaped as if he was being primed for another day last week and this race may be it, with over 25k to the winner (he was bought for 35,000 guineas in October).

He was dropped 2lb for Haydock too and he is now 12lb lower than for his peak mark of 105 for Charlie Hills last season, and he has winning course form, too.

He is currently 18/1 in couple of places (generally 16s) and he is worth a saver at 17.016/1 or bigger on the exchange, though the less rain the better for him. He is 16/1 with the Sportsbook.

It's a low-stakes day for me, but good luck with your punting.

Let's hope for a good Guineas winner, whoever it is.

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