Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Dubrovnik Harry at 8/1 in Lanzarote

• Heavy rain means deep ground at both

• Lanzarote looks fiercely competitive but Harry gets nod

• Back in on Nestor Park plus 2 more Warwick tips

• Tenacious Mexico gets Tony's vote

I couldn't tip Dubrovnik Harry ante-post for the Lanzarote on Tuesday as the Betfair Sportsbook were ducking him at 10/1, when he was 16s and 14s elsewhere (rightly so in my opinion, but it didn't make it any less frustrating).

So do I get with him at his reduced odds in Kempton's maximum-field, 20-runner 2m5f handicap hurdle at 14:40?

Very deep ground at Kempton and Warwick

While I ponder that, the first thing to say is that we are looking at very deep ground at both of the ITV tracks at Kempton and Warwick if they get the predicted 10mm+ on Saturday, especially the latter.

It is already soft at Kempton and heavy (soft in places) at Warwick, and the going stick readings at both fully back up that assessment.

Housekeeping out of the way then, and back to a fiercely competitive Lanzarote. It is the deepest renewal I can recall in recent years, so I have to steer away from the two at the head of the betting, however strong their claims, at around 11/2 on the Betfair Exchange.

Fancied duo don't appeal at the prices

The first firm up on Monday afternoon made Green Glory as big as 13/2 and the 6yo has an attractive lightly-raced profile, coming here after landing a punt on his handicap debut over 2m4f at Leopardstown over Christmas.

The Irish handicapper hit him with a 10lb rise for that length success, which seems harsh on paper but he did it very well on soft ground from the right horses there - the second and third went into the race off the back of wins - under the trainer's son, 5lb claimer Philip Byrnes, who retains the ride here.

The problem for his backers is that the UK assessor has followed up the Irish hit by slapping him with an extra 6lb for Saturday. Most importantly, his price is no real bargain. And, smoke and mirrors perhaps, the trainer says he would prefer better ground.

Whatever cash was knocking around earlier in the week also arrived for Outlaw Peter (opened as big as 8s) as the course winner does look well very handicapped off a mark of just 130. Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls knows this, having sat on that rating ever since the horse sluiced up at Exeter in early November.

Very deep ground would be a fair doubt for me (he hasn't raced on anything worse than good to soft for Nicholls, having finished second his bumper for Shark Hanlon on heavy in his bumper).

I can let him slide at his current odds given the aforementioned depth of this 20-strong field (we also had the rarity of one getting balloted out at the overnight stage on Thursday morning).

Harry can thrive with prominent ride

Anyway, back to my original fancy, Dubrovnik Harry.

In short, the stable is in good nick, he looks well-treated on his heavy ground Exeter win last year and I reckon he was given an over-confident ride when we last saw him over hurdles at Sandown for the EBF Final in March.

He finished third there, beaten a staying-on 4 ½ lengths, and is now 3lb higher but I reckon Sean Bowen should have made his move about a hurdle earlier. It was a modest ride.

He was always travelling well but he only got busy going to the last and the leaders never came back to him in a handicap that has worked out well, too.

They have ditched the chasing route for him after an underwhelming third at Exeter in November and, now he has been confirmed for the race, I am happy enough to back him at 8/1 each-way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. He may drift back out but 8s is fair with the extra places.

I want to see the horse be given a more prominent ride here anyway, that's for sure. Dangers are everywhere though and, aside the two market leaders. my long shortlist also includes the punted Hermes Boy, last year's winner Cobblers Dream and Quinta Do Mar.

I was going to suggest the latter each-way, six places, at 16/1. He is only 4lb higher than when beating a dual subsequent scorer over an extended 2m1f at Fontwell last time and he is racing off the same mark as when third when falling at the last in this race last year.

But, given that you couldn't rule any of the 20 runners out of the places and I am not entirely sold on his 2m5f stamina in bad ground, I am going with just the bet on Dubrovnik Harry. I will be disappointed if he can't finish in the first six at the very least after what I saw from him at Sandown.

All six have stood their ground in the 80k Silviniaco Conti Chase at 14:05, which is what you would have hoped for with such a big prize on offer and with an easy 1k available to the last-home if all complete.

It is not a race that excites me too much, but Saint Calvados is probably the most attractive price at 5/1+ on the Betfair. Exchange. He was the best of these at his peak, finishing third and fourth in two King Georges, and a first-time hood could settle him down after that Ascot run.

You can reasonably take on the market leaders Pic d'Orhy and Paint The Dream too - the former would prefer better ground and all the latter's best exploits have come left-handed - but I can leave alone, especially with David Maxwell unable to draw his 3lb claim in this Grade 2. And he isn't even value for that!

The same is true of the 3m handicap chase at 13:30 once the opening 9/2 about good recent course and distance second Tile Tapper on Thursday morning became 3s within a couple of hours. The current 10/3 on the exchange is now little more than fair.

Park can maintain Pauling's form at Warwick

Over at Warwick, I took a punt when sticking up Nestor Park win-only at 11/1 on Tuesday, as his stable also had Slipway in the race and he missed planned engagements at Newbury and Doncaster over the Christmas period due to "slightly puffy joints" and he had a week on the easy-list as a result.

But the noises from Ben Pauling camp have been pretty positive since (Slipway, who was second favourite for this race ante-post, is a no-show here and at Kempton, by the way), and with good reason if you look at his profile.

Granted, he is a 10yo (though a lightly-raced one at that) and he doesn't have any secrets from the handicapper, but he scores highly on every other count.

He ran well when third over 3m4f at Haydock in November, his first run since April, he is a course winner, he will relish the testing conditions and, of course, he hails from a yard which remains in blistering form.

Pauling can boast an unbelievable strike rate of 41 per cent with his chasers this season , with 36 winners (so a decent sample), and his new set-up at Naunton this season couldn't be going much better.

And I like the fact that Nestor Park has had a good break since Haydock, enforced or not, as he won at Newbury last season after a similar two-month absence.

A left-handed track on deep ground is what he wants - and he also won over hurdles here, and run well on his only start on heavy - and he is relatively unexposed over these marathon trips, too.

If you have a look at the Haydock run, quite a bad first fence error stopped him adopting a prominent position, but hopefully he will get on or near the early pace here.

I am going in again at 9/1 each-way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

Get on The Goffer

I can't remember the last time I had a bet in a novices' chase but I honestly think Gordon Elliott's The Goffer should be just about favourite for the four-runner affair at 13:50, so back him at 4/1 win-only with the Sportsbook.

I appreciate that Elliott's runners aren't exactly pulling up trees at the moment (a concern) and The Goffer's rating of 138 in Ireland gives him something to find here, though against that it seems the UK assessor believes he is a 146 horse.

If the latter is correct then 4s is even more generous as his Thurles defeat of Churchstonewarrior (second to Gaillard Du Mesnil in Grade 1 company next time) reads very well against these.

His second to Ha D'Or (a possible for a Grade 3 at Punchestown on Sunday) at Fairyhouse last time was another good effort.

Sure, he was well beaten by the winner but he finished 36 lengths clear of a last-time-out Punchestown winner in third who went off at 5/2, and I'd seriously have him vying for favouritism here at around 2/1

Outsider Mexico merits your money

I will leave the Pertemps qualifier at 15:35 alone - though in-form course winner Glimpse Of Gala looks a fair 7/1 chance - but Mexico is definitely worth a bet at 26.025/1 on the Betfair Exchange, or 25s with the Sportsbook, in the Grade 2 2m5f novices' hurdle at 14:25.

You may be better off backing him fixed-odds to get filled immediately, but he could be the type to go offer much bigger than 25s win-only on the Betfair Exchange on the day. Up to you. I'll be settling at BSP, as per usual.

With all of the seven boasting a win last time out and similar levels of form - the official ratings range from 125 to 133 - and I more than willing to side with the outsider Mexico, who is admittedly the lowest-rated of the lot.

Ability to handle very bad ground here will be key - this could be borderline raceable if they get all the rain due on Saturday - as will a tenacious attitude, and that is what Mexico possesses.

A winner and a neck second in his two starts on heavy, he was easily brushed aside by Ginny's Destiny over course and distance in November - he actually had that horse in behind when third at Aintree previously - but I liked the way he finished his race off after being under the pump from some way out.

That leads me to believe this deeper ground will play to his grinding strengths - go and have a look at his Catterick bumper defeat of Nothin To Ask - while he looked even better given a more prominent ride with dotting up from a fair sort on good ground at Southwell last time.

From a stable going really well at present, and who provided the second in this race last season, he is no 25s poke in here.

Good luck.

Racing... Only Bettor. Watch below.