Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's six bets including a huge-price Champion Stakes pick

• Testing ground expected on British Champions Day

• Tony is taking a swing on a huge-price O'Brien runner in the Champion Stakes

• Five further selections at differing prices

• Very happy with his two antepost positions

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The going at Ascot changed from predominantly good to soft ground to soft after 12mm of rain on Wednesday, but it promises to get even wetter from hereon in, even with an improving forecast.

Friday has always been earmarked as the most extreme weather day - one site even had as much as 48mm landing on that day earlier in the week, subsequently revised to a mere 6mm at the moment - so we possibly won't really know where we stand course and betting-wise until Saturday morning, and I obviously can't wait until then to file.

I don't mean just the going, either.

I am also referring to the fact that Ascot can decide to switch races from the normal round course to the inner Flat track as late as 8am on Saturday morning if they deem heavy is in the going description.

However, even given that improving forecast as it stands, it is surely a near 1.011/100 poke to be heavy in some regard and that the above switch will happen - it has been raining again at Ascot as I type this on Thursday afternoon - and that will not be good news for mud-lovers in the Champion Stakes, Fillies And Mares and the Long Distance Cup.

The going stick readings suggest the inner track is currently much, much better ground. The round course reading was 5.8 and the inner Flat track is 7.5, at 8.30am on Thursday morning.

A massive difference.

For what it is worth John Gosden reckons it was good to firm, good in places, when he walked it on Wednesday afternoon. Make of that what you will. The course say they will try to make a decision on Friday. The sooner the better for bettors.

Anyway, looking at the current forecast for the rest of Thursday and Friday, I am currently working on the basis of heavy on the straight course, and good to soft/soft on the inner round track.

Ascot - 13:50: Vadream advised ante-post

I am going to start with the straight-track races, for which I am pretty sure we will be racing on heavy (that said, I was surprised the Thursday morning going stick reading there was as high as 6.9].

On Monday, I put up Vadream at [14/1] win-only for the Champions Sprint at 13:50 solely on the basis of the forecast, and at least I have called the market right.

Before the Thursday 10am confirmations, she was down to 6/17.00 and 7.06/1 was the last traded price as the exchange ante-post market was suspended.

There is little on her dance card to suggest she is a Group 1 mare and capable of beating a peak-form Kinross, but this ground could be a massive leveller.

And she is a very impressive operator in bad conditions. The case that I made for her on Monday stands, even if the price doesn't.

She shaped well off a break on good ground here last time (Timeform actually called it good to firm, quicker than the original good) and, as I have just said, we all know she is a far more destructive weapon on much slower ground.

I wouldn't say she has a great record at the track - though she has won here and she ran well enough as an 80/181.00 poke in this race last season, when beaten under 4 lengths by Kinross on good to soft ground when anchored too far off the pace (she was last 2f out) - but she simply excels in the mud.

The only time she has raced on officially heavy ground, she bolted up at Donny in April, and her record on soft reads 37131, with the most recent win being a defeat of Nunthorpe victor Live In The Dream in the Palace House Stakes in May.

Both were very good time figures, and she scores highly on that score.

I also really like her draw in two, as she looks sure to get a tow into the race from Art Power in one and Swingalong in three, and that has prompted me to press up at 13/27.50 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

Ascot - 13:50: Back Rohaan

Rohaan, drawn in six (Kinross is in eight) is the one at double-figure odds that appeals most of the rest, given his course record (five from nine), and he handles testing ground well enough.

I am having a small saver on him at 12/113.00 each way, four places, too, as he looked on the way back when winning off an admittedly lowly rating of 102 here last time.

I toyed with putting him up win only as he can put in the occasional bad run or four, but I'm very conscious that Kinross could sluice up again in this and I want the places on my side.

Ascot - 15:05: Back Nashwa

It will come as no surprise to anyone that I am tipping and backing Nashwa each way at 9/25.50 in the QEII at 15:05. The 5s was taken earlier today.

There is potential pace in here from Big Rock, Chaldean, Paddington and Hi Royal - the French horse looks sure to blast from the front - and that really should suit Nashwa over this trip.

After-timing this is not, as I have long held the belief that Nashwa is a miler, even before her Oaks run, and she did little to dispel that notion when running away with the Falmouth by 5 lengths in July.

She wasn't given an optimum ride in narrow defeats in the Nassau Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes and, for all this is a competitive and high-class Group 1, it will be disappointing if she is not in the first three.

Ascot - 16:25: Migration advised antepost

Sticking to the straight track, I put Migration each way at 16/117.00 each way, five places, on Monday for the Balmoral at 16:25 and I am very happy with that position.

He is two from two on officially heavy ground and, while he has a tough job on here off 113, he deserves that mark on the manner in which laughed at Awaal and Baradar in the Lincoln off 107.

The trainer has had two of his twelve 2023 winners in the last fortnight, the horse goes very well when fresh and he could just outclass these.

He went off a 15/28.50 chance on the back of a 182-day break in this race last year and, while I wouldn't say he was unlucky, he would have been a hell of a lot closer had he got a clear run up the far rail, having been started the race on the near side from his draw in 23 of 23.

His jockey left no blade of grass untouched, as they say.

I am not pressing up on him though at the current 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook - 9.417/2 on the exchange - and the two horses that interested me after a fresh look at the race on Thursday were Bopedro and Dancing Magic.

Ascot - 16:25: Back Bopedro & Dancing Magic

Instead of playing each way, five places, with the Sportsbook at 14/115.00 and 16/117.00 respectively, I am going to play them win-only on the exchange.

Bopedro would arguably prefer better ground but he ran well in heavy ground at Doncaster last October and he is officially the best handicapped horse in here, being 2lb well-in on his Cambridgeshire third last time.

I like his draw in seven, as the only likely pace-setters are in three, four and six, and he ran very well when sixth here over 7f at the Royal meeting.

He is a bet at 17.016/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange. And the 14/115.00, five places with the Sportsbook, isn't too bad either, to be honest.

I am a bit worried about Dancing Magic's draw in 18 then, and possibly the ground, but he is down to a mark of just 98 now, and maybe a wind op (which has rendered the tongue-tie he has worn on his last three starts redundant) will see him return to something like his juvenile best, or indeed his Craven third in April.

If it does, we are in business - and, as regards the ground, he didn't run too badly when fourth in the Vertem Futurity on heavy - and the trainer is among the winners recently, with a few others placed at big odds.

Back him at 17.016/1 of bigger, or at 16/117.00 with the Sportsbook, though Bopedro is the more solid bet. I'll settle both at Betfair SP, as per usual.

Ascot - 13:15: No Bet

Over to the round course then, whatever that ends up being.

I don't have a betting opinion in the dead-eight Long Distance Cup at 13:15 , so I will park that race very quickly.

The presence of Kyprios and Trueshan, seeking a four-timer in the race, means each-way punters probably only have one place to play for here - and maybe none if we get a non-runner. I wouldn't be in a mad rush to lay Broome at 33/134.00 though if (or rather when) we switch tracks; he is 40s elsewhere and currently 44.043/1 on the exchange.

Ascot - 14:25: No Bet

On Monday, when I first started looking at the Fillies And Mares race at 14:25, I couldn't understand why Rue Boissonade was a 33/134.00 chance.

I was clearly not alone, as by the time my column was due to go live, she was cut again from 20/121.00 to just 12/113.00 as I did my final sweep of the prices, so, sulking, I had to pull the tip.

Amused I was not, as on her recent Group One fourths in the Vermeille (looked a bit awkward and a touch too keen, but stayed on well) and Royallieu (met far more trouble than in the in-running comment would suggest) she looked a big 'ole player in a winnable race.

The Timeform going descriptions of those two Longchamp Group 1 efforts were good and good to firm respectively there, so I like the fact she is ground-versatile bearing in mind we don't know what track she will be racing on, having won on heavy (probably soft) in April.

She was also very impressive when winning a Group 2 on Bastille Day on ground Timeform called good, though that was a very weak race for that grade.

Her trainer is a rare, and not a prolific traveller to the UK (2 from 34 in total, as well as being a lifetime 0 from 14 at Ascot, albeit he has had two seconds at this course and a won a Guineas with Makfi), and a French expert has warned me that the 56yo Gerard Mosse is far more a hindrance than a help these days. I kind of guessed that, though.

The question is now whether she is a bet at the current given the positives and negatives.

She is now just 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook and we have only really lost Via Sistina (as expected) in the interim, so I won't be betting myself at the current price, so no tip.

The more I looked at the race, the trickier it got, anyway; I'd want 16s to get involved.

Ascot - 15:45: Back Point Lonsdale

Given the uncertainty over the course, I was also going to give the Champion Stakes at 15:45 a swerve at this stage, too.

The first thing that strikes you about the race is just how open it is.

That said, Mostahdaf could look very big at 11/26.50 with the Sportsbook if they decide to run and they do so on the inner track - he is currently 7.26/1 on the exchange - and Big John gives the green light after walking the course on Saturday morning.

And of course it is now money back if they pull the plug. It's a decent trading option, I guess.

I backed Bay Bridge each way at 10/111.00, ante-post, early last month and he clearly has his chance, and I have also chucked a few quid each way at 80/181.00 on Point Lonsdale on Thursday morning, as he could get an uncontested lead from the front and ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes, and 1m2f with plenty with dig could be his optimum.

But I wouldn't fancy his chances anywhere as much on better ground on the inside track, though he was thought to need a decent surface at two.

I was sorely tempted to stick him up here, so I will. Back him at 80.079/1 or bigger; he currently trades at 110.0109/1, so that's a very fair guide price.

Time for a wild swing, methinks before I have a week off next week. So no podcasts or columns from me until October 30^th now.

Good luck, all.

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