Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's picks for Lincoln day at Doncaster as the Flat returns

An old Racing Post colleague from the 80s and 90s, Andy Smith, used to wait all year to have a chunky bet on the un-named favourite in the Wood Ditton newcomers' race at Newmarket - don't ask me why - but I can't recall whether the Brocklesby was also on his bizarre agenda.

Actually, he only lives around the corner, so I may go and ask him.

Anyway, if you want to bet on a race of 13 unraced 2yos at 13:15 then you crack on.

Garrus the likeliest winner but I have to pass

The 6f Cammidge Trophy at 13:50 will be the first punting contest for many on the card and those who managed to snaffle some of the 5/1 about Garrus on Tuesday are sitting pretty.

The case I made for him earlier in the weekobviously still stands, and I think the race could set up perfectly for him from a pace perspective, too. There are four in here that could go on, and I can see him sitting just off them, and asserting late doors.

The form argument for him is compelling, too, as he is unpenalised for his Deauville Group 3 win last August - if that win came two days later he would be carrying 5lb more here - and he is officially the best horse in here on official ratings, albeit just 1lb clear of Diligent Harry. And he is a horse that goes well when fresh, and who represents last year's winning stable.

As ever though, whether he is a bet now is all about his current price. He was 5s and 4s in places on Tuesday and generally 3s by the end of that day, but he is now just around a 2/1 chance on the exchange.

I have to pass, for all he is much the most likely winner. It is not as if he towers above the opposition in class terms, after all.

Very fair price about odds-on Chindit

I will deal with the other conditions race before we get to the handicaps and, once again, if you called the market correctly on Monday then you are well set here. Chindit was available at 5/2 and 2/1 then, despite the field looking sure to cut up badly, and it has, and he is now firmly odds-on at 8/11 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

With 8lb and more in hand of this field then, Chindit, fifth in the Guineas and occupying the same position in the Jacques Le Marois - and also a winner first time up in 2020 and 2021, and successful in both starts at this track - really does have all you look for when backing at skinny odds in the 15:00.

He will take plenty of whacking and could well be more like a 1/2 shot at the off, but I am not tipping him, for all I think the current 4/5 on the exchange is obviously very, very fair.

Lots going for Mostawaa in Spring Mile

Invincibly could get the run of the race from the front in the Spring Mile at 14:25, but Mostawaa stands out to me.

Back him at 7.06/1 or bigger.

Heather Main hasn't had a Flat winner since October but that doesn't concern me as Numitor won for her over fences earlier in the month - at this track, in fact - and her last two runners on the level were placed recently.

And everything looks set for a big run here from Mostawaa.

I liked the way the horse shaped off this mark on his first start for nearly two months at Kempton last time, and he is 5lb lower than when a ¾ length third of 20 in this race last year. He went on to run some even better races afterwards, too.

He has been a non-winner since 2020 but a few of his best performances have come under today's jockey Silvestre de Sousa, who has also scored on him. He is more exposed than most, but he is undoubtedly a well-handicapped horse, and hopefully the best one in here.

I've seen the light with Darkness in the Lincoln

As I touched upon earlier in the week, the "problem" with the Lincoln at 15:35 is that the three at the top of the market all have hugely attractive profiles.

Mujtaba, Saleymm and Modern News are all well-bred, unexposed 4yos with considerable handicap upside and, as the market suggests, getting them all beat could be very difficult indeed.

But the Betfair Sportsbook have softened the blow by offering six places on the races.

When I did my ante-post piece on the race on Monday, the two I fancied most outside of the Big Three were Notre Belle Bete and Darkness, who were 12/1 and 25/1 at the time, and they are drawn next to each other in 21 and 20.

Both are much shorter now, too - indeed they are fourth and fifth in the betting - and I am filthy at myself for not going with Darkness. I wasn't sure why he had been off for so long and was unsure whether the drying ground would be against him too, so I resisted.

But I have been told that this race has been the plan since he joined David O'Meara for 70,000 euros last July, that he has had no hold-ups or issues, that he is working well and better than a 95-rated horse, and he certainly looks fairly handicapped on his French form, which included a stab at a Group One at two.

The stable won this with a stable-switcher in 2017 (Bravery, from Aidan O'Brien no less) and have done well in this contest since with the likes of Lord Glitters and Hortzadar, both French purchases. And of course future Grade 1 winner Mondialiste was only just touched off by Gabrial in this race in 2015, on his first start for the yard after coming across the Channel.

That's hard evidence that David O'Meara really does lay one out for this.

Darkness has front-runner Marie's Diamond nearby in 16 to help drag him into the race, too. I am not going to let the missed opportunity at 25s cloud my judgement here, and I am willing to back him at 15.014/1 or bigger on the exchange.

I wanted to back him each-way with those six places, but I wanted bigger than the current 10/1, so win-only on the exchange it is. If he drifts to 12/1 and 14/1 on the fixed-odds front, I will back him each way then.

Of course, he may be on the wrong side of the track even if he is good enough, and I can see Saleymm, by Dubawi out of the Group 1-placed 1m-1m4f performer Talmada, being ridden prominently on the other side from three, alongside Johan in four.

The other big guns, Mujtaba and Modern News, are nearby in two and eight, so class could dictate that the low-drawn far-side dominate.

I hope not, for the sake of Darkness, but I am going for a second stab in the race in the form of What's The Story at 33/1 each way, six places, from his midfield stall of 10.

Of course, he is one of the oldest in here as an 8yo but what he lacks in youthful potential he makes up for in experience and big-field handicap form, a falling mark and excellent course form.

He won the valuable Clipper Logistics handicap at York off a 2lb higher mark than this in 2019, he has won here off a long break in the past and, indeed, he has run some crackers when fresh.

He finished second in the Doncaster Mile on his reappearance at this meeting last season, splitting Top Rank and Montatham, and he is weighed to go very close off 101 if repeating that form, for all he is twice the age of the market leaders.

The drying ground is very much in his favour as well, so he is worth chancing.

Market fancies can go well at Kempton

The one that I liked most at the five-day stage in Kempton's Magnolia Stakes at 14:05 hasn't rocked up - that horse being Johnny Drama - so I had to start from scratch again here.

Felix is the one I landed on. Winner of his sole start here, and an encouraging fifth in Dubai earlier in the month, he is the second-best in here on official ratings, so he has plenty of upside.

But I was hoping for bigger than 10/3 considering he is drawn widest and this race has some depth, if only eight runners. No bet.

I thought the 9/4 favourite Bandinelli could take a fair bit of stopping in the 2m handicap at 14:40 so I decided to give this race a swerve as well.

Justus at a double-figure price was an each-way alternative after a better run here last time but I don't feel strongly enough about him to have a bet or tip him.

Bak Rocky to come out swinging

I was going to leave it with just the three selections at Donny, but the two Kelso handicaps on ITV are competitive and decent races, and one caught my eye, even if he could finish tailed off and make me look a right muppet.

Bak Rocky, by Shirocco out of a mare who was rated 136 and finished fifth in an Irish National, is a fair old price in the 13:35 and he is worth a bet at 18.017/1 or bigger.

That is my exchange guide price - given his sketchy recent profile you will surely get bigger when the markets hot up - but 14/1+ would be okay (he was 25/1 in a place earlier on Thursday, and 14/1 is the current price on the Sportsbook).

He ran like a drain at Newcastle only a week ago and he is not always the most willing partner, so he has massive blow-out potential, but he has dropped to a mark of 104 now, and that is very attractive if he returns to the form of his Hexham second in December.

The horse that beat him ½ length off levels there is now rated 117 and the third, who was getting 7lb, is now rated 113 after winning her last two.

And the headgear combination is very interesting here.

The only time he has worn a tongue-tie before was when he was in the process of running a good race over 2m in Ireland ( only to unseat on the run-in when probably coming to claim third in a fair Listowel maiden hurdle) and the first-time cheekpieces (his trainer is 4 from 19 with this option since 2016, better than his usual strike rate) could just see him travel a touch more kindly for his jockey.

I am taking the chance at the price anyway, and I hope to see him travel with renewed zest on the front end.

I was going to side with Rae Des Champs at 8/1+ in the 15:15 as I liked her attitude when winning in a fair time at Musselburgh last time, she is just 4lb higher here, and she is clearly lightly-raced and open to a deal of improvement.

But this is a very competitive race, so I declined the invitation to get involved in the final analysis.

Good luck.

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PACE MAPS FOR ITV RACES

1.15pm Doncaster - ALL UNRACED

1.50pm Doncaster - Lead/Prominent: Diligent Harry, Bielsa, Mo Celita, Justanotherbottle; Midfield: Volatile Analyst; Held Up: Garrus, Mondammej

2.25pm Doncaster - Lead/Prominent: Invincibly; Midfield: General Lee, May Night, Mostawaa, Empirestateofmind, Arthur's Realm; Held Up: Star Shield, A Boy Named Ivy, Mustarrid

3.00pm Doncaster - Lead/Prominent: Tempus; Midfield: Chindit, Boosala, Royal Champion

3.35pm Doncaster - Lead/Prominent: Saleymm, Johan, Marie's Diamond; Midfield: Mujtaba, Modern News, Ametist, Darkness, Notre Belle Bete, Brunch, Irish Admiral, Rogue Bear, Hortzadar, Scottish Summit, United Front, What's The Story; Held Up: Another Batt, Teodolina, Fame And Acclaim, Safe Voyage, Broken Spear, Eagleway, Revich

1.35pm Kelso - Lead/Prominent: Sherif Garrett, Demi Sang, Lovely Moon, Bak Rocky, Frightened Rabbit, Shoughall's Boy; Midfield: Diamond State, Romeo Brown, Son Of The Somme, Celtic Flames, Idilco, Three Castles; Held Up: Headscarf Lil, Kiss My Face, Goodtimes Badtimes

3.15pm Kelso - Lead/Prominent: Aliomaana, Bella Bluesky, Martha Willow; Midfield: Theatre Glory, Haseefah. Cancan, Betty Baloo, Rae Des Champs; Held Up: Taragrace

2.05pm Kempton - Lead/Prominent: Al Zaraqaan, Living Legend; Midfield: Fancy Man, Felix, Father Of Jazz; Held Up: Chichester, King Of The South, Soto Sizzler

2.40pm Kempton - Lead/Prominent: Bandinelli, Auriferous, Hiroshima, Finniston Farm; Midfield: Imperium, Moliwood; Held Up: Sir Chauvelin, Alright Sunshine, Justus, Pistoletto