Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's backing 20/1 Escobar to boss Ascot rivals

• Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar on ITV Racing

• Tony fancies 20/121.00 Escobar in Ascot's feature

• Chance taken on 7/18.00 Totnes in Newmarket opener

---

Ascot - 15:35: Back Escobar

Do not pass go, do not collect £200 (well, hopefully afterwards), and go straight to the main betting event of the weekend, the 7f Howden Challenge Cup at 15:35 at Ascot on Saturday.

Back Escobar to monopolise the race again - see what I did there? - at 20/121.00 win-only with the Sportsbook, or 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange.

The reason why I am not taking advantage of the five places with the Sportsbook is manyfold.

The first is that the trainer David O'Meara is what I call a spaghetti-at-the-wall operator, in that he throws a lot of darts at these big handicap targets (he runs five here) and hope one sticks on any given day, and as a result his horses are very hard to call.

The second is that Escobar's hit-or-miss profile does not suggest he is an each-way conveyance, especially on good to firm ground of late (though he had four wins on that surface in his younger years).

And the third is that I have no idea how the 9yo will react to first-time cheekpieces (the stable's record with this option is not bet-inducing).

There are other reasons, but I have forgotten them, so let's soldier on with the positives.

Hopefully, it won't race too much on the fast side on Saturday, despite a drying forecast and an unseasonal 24 degrees - the ground, as of 6.30am on Friday morning, is currently good on the straight course, with a bit of ease on the round track - as Escobar really does have a very good chance off just 94, a staggering 19lb below the mark he ran off in the Balmoral here last October when just a 12/113.00 poke (the race was won by O'Meara's 80/181.00 chance Shelir) and 13lb lower than when gagging up by 1 ½ lengths in this race last year.

He shaped okay off a mark of 100 when not beaten far (just under 4 lengths, staying on) in the Ayr Gold Cup over an inadequate 6f last time, a race he used as a springboard to success in this race last season - in fact those are the only two occasions he has raced over 6f - and he is well worth chancing, on the nose, at the price.

I quite like his midfield draw in 10 as well.

He actually ended up on the far rail when winning very snugly last year, but I don't know how this will pan out tactically. So a slot bang in the middle could give my old mucker Neil Callan options, as they say.

Quinault will lead on the far side in one, and Lethal Levi and Glenfinnan from 12 and 16, will probably head the pack closer to the stands' rail.

It is up to Callan to pick his path wisely from the rear. Don't let me down, John.

Of the market leaders, Fresh probably makes most appeal at around the 7/18.00 mark on the exchange as everyone saw how unlucky the dual course and distance winner (though he was last in this race as the 11/43.75 favourite last year) was at the Curragh last time, and he is now down to a winnable mar of 99.

I couldn't put you off a saver on him, though being drawn 18 of 18 carries with it an obvious risk if there is a track or pace bias.

Ascot - 13:50: No Bet

It was no surprise to see the Sportsbook's opening 8/19.00 about Nymphadora quickly snaffled up on Thursday as I can see her and Emaraaty Aana (the clear form horse) getting on the front end and being hard to peg back in the 5f Listed race at 13:50.

However, of course, if their jockeys overdo the competitiveness, it could easily backfire on both and set it up for a closer like Korker, so I will leave Nymphadora, now 11/26.50 but still the best price around, alone.

Ascot 14:25: No Bet

The 1m4f Cumberland Lodge at 14:25 is a very tricky betting heat, and not least because we have yet another dead-eight to deal with. What price another non-runner in this set-up, eh?

I can't see any guaranteed pace in the race, either. Claymore is the obvious candidate but we haven't seen him since he blew out in the Brigadier Gerard in May, so we have no idea what shape he is in and whether he will be gently eased back into the fold.

Al Qareem is the most interesting from a betting perspective, as he defied a marked market weakness to win on his Chester on his belated return to action.

As short as 7/24.50 with one firm very early doors (though as big as 13/27.50 with another), he went off at a Betfair SP of 11.010/1, so there are two ways of looking at that victory, I suppose.

The first is that the betting suggests he should come on appreciably for it.

Or, conversely, did he have too hard a race in fighting off Bluestocking, if slightly underdone, and he will regress from it, having been a sick horse when returning from Dubai earlier in the year?

I was tempted by him at around 9/25.50 on the exchange, but I won't force it.

Ascot - 15:00: No Bet

The same applies to the 6f Group 3 at 15:00.

Now, there is no confirmed pace in here, so the opportunity is there for a jockey to take the initiative.

Looking through the field, I thought Garrus, drawn 10 of 10, could be an ideal candidate but who knows what Jim Crowley will do?

I just couldn't get a handle on the race, which is also very close knit on official ratings after factoring in the penalties. Rumstar is big enough at 14/115.00 but I won't be having a bet.

Newmarket - 15:15: Meditate advised ante-post

Over to Newmarket then, where I have already had a punt - on that subject, while admiring their honesty, I was really disappointed to read in the Weekender that a prominent tipster doesn't back all the horses they put up in their columns and podcasts, as that should be a given for all tipsters - and that is Meditate at 9/110.00 win-only in the Sun Chariot at 15:15.

However, I did so partly because I thought the second favourite Mqse Des Sevigne wouldn't come over on the ground (it is currently good, good to firm in places), but unfortunately she has done, and she is clearly a massive runner alongside the favourite Inspiral.

I am not inclined to press up, as I think she is basically her correct price now around 15/28.50, but I saw enough of her in the Matron Stakes in the headgear (retained here) to think she could put it up to the top two in her optimum conditions.

Newmarket 14:05: No Bet

If being drawn in midfield in 14 of 22 doesn't scupper his chances, I think Zoulu Chief will probably justify short-priced favouritism in the 14:05 auction stakes at 14:05. He currently trades at 2.26/5 on the exchange.

And, while I am talking about valuable 2yo races, I also think 4/61.67 poke Dragon Leader probably wins Redcar's Two Year Old Trophy at 14:45, as well. He is 1.758/11 on the exchange.

I am sure many will double up that juvenile pair, but would I?

Not a chance.

Newmarket 13:30: Back Totnes

I am having a small dabble in the 1m2f handicap in Newmarket's opener at 13:30 though, and that is Totnes at 7/18.00 win-only with the Sportsbook or 8.07/1 or bigger on the exchange. She currently trades at 9.08/1 as this column goes live, and 8/19.00 in the wider marketplace, too.

Now, this could be quite a hot little fillies' handicap and I am also a bit wary of the ground being too lively for Totnes, but I was genuinely expecting her to be half the price that she opened up on Thursday. She was put in at 12/113.00 in most places.

That initial, general, 12s was never going to last, but I was hugely disappointing to see the 12/113.00 become 17/29.50 and then 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook through Thursday.

Now, quickening ground also has to be a concern, as she ran poorly as a 7/42.75 favourite on good to firm going at Salisbury in June. But Timeform thought it was even more extreme (firm) that day, so all may not be lost.

Timeform called it good when she won by 3 lengths at Chepstow two starts ago and she comes here off the back of an excellent second to Balance Play on heavy in a valuable handicap at Newbury last time.

I'm taking a very positive view of that run in a good time, so a 1lb rise doesn't deter me, especially as she didn't get a lot of racing room in the final furlong or so there.

The 12/113.00 was plain wrong about such a progressive filly, and I deliberated long and hard about whether to back her at the current odds. But I decided to focus on where the price is going, rather than where it has been. Any 7/18.00 or bigger is acceptable.

Good luck. A quiet punting weekend for me.

---

Racing... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.