Tony Calvin's Antepost Tips: Back 9/1 Meditate to shine in Newmarket's Sun Chariot

• Good ground expected at Newmarket

• Meditate massively over-priced on best form

• TC's early view on Ascot and Redcar races too

There have been two long range ante-posts markets on Betfair for this Saturday - fixed-odds and Exchange - so we have established lines there to guide us, to a degree.

On Sunday, when I looked at the most high-profile of those two races, Newmarket's Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at 15:15 (I really should get a life, or maybe shed my atheist tag and hit the church on the Sabbath), it was a little depressing to see only 13 entries. Three of those had raced very recently. Or were about to.

They were Coppice and Astral Beau, who finished first and eighth at Newmarket last Friday, and Cachet, who was due to run in the Prix de la Foret on Sunday (she only beat one home).

And Coppice was said to be going to continue her racing in America after her win.

The two form stand-outs were Group 1 winners Inspiral and Mqse De Sevigne, but before we get to the revised entries after Monday (we are down to nine now) we better do the usual ground housekeeping.

Ground - Expect good to firm on Saturday

The going was very quick at Newmarket on Saturday (it was officially good to firm on Monday) but Turftrax (the BHA site hasn't been updated from 08:20 on Monday morning at the time of this column going live), reported that 6mm has fallen in the last 24 hours, so it is fair to assume the ground has eased a touch. If at all.

And if they don't water to any significant degree it will still be good to firm on Saturday, with a dry week now forecast, including 23 degrees and blue skies at the weekend.

(Update after the column went live: the ground is now good.)

Newmarket - Saturday 15:15: Back Meditate

The aforementioned Inspiral and Mqse De Sevigne were confirmed on Monday, and they remain at the head of the market at evens and 10/34.33 respectively. It is hard to argue with that assessment.

The other winner at the highest level, Meditate, is a 9/110.00 poke behind 11/26.50 third favourite Just Beautiful.

Coppice, at 10/111.00, is perhaps a surprise confirmation given we thought she was off to the US, but I imagine the Gozzas (who obviously also have the favourite in here) and Juddmonte clocked how lacking in depth this Group 1 is and decided to delay the trip (or maybe stay in the hunt just in case something happens to Inspiral).

We will see at 10am on Thursday.

One of the positive aspects of a small field is that we can have an early stab at a pace map.

I'd expect Just Beautiful to go forward and other potential prominent racers include Meditate and Random Harvest (though tactics change on those), Goldana and Roman Mist.

So nothing much to be gleaned from that, to be perfectly honest.

What is harder to gauge is how many of the nine will be confirmed on Thursday morning, on the expected good to firm ground.

Mqse De Sevigne and Goldana have never raced on ground that fast, so I would hold fire on backing them ante-post, but the rest will be fine on it.

And the in-form, improving Heredia was supplemented on Monday, so she is a certain runner, well-being permitted.

I toyed with putting her up at 10/111.00 each way, three places, with the Sportsbook but I pulled back at the last minute and thought "why I am avoiding the obvious?"

How is the Irish 1,000 Guineas runner-up Meditate 9/110.00 in this field? And, even more strikingly, why is she 14.013/1 on the Exchange?

Of course, the latter price, even in a lightly-traded market, suggests she may not even be coming over and I have no idea if she is.

And maybe they have other plans for her, such as the Breeders' Cup, where she hacked up in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last season, or the QEII.

This looks a good spot for her though, and she is surely massively overpriced on her best form (she started the season rated 114, just 4lb shy of Inspiral's current mark of 118).

She very much caught the eye when fourth in first-time blinkers in the Group 1 Matron Stakes last time, staying on well from the rear under a hand ride close home, just 1 ¾ lengths behind the more prominently-ridden Just Beautiful.

A mile on quick ground are her optimum conditions, and last year's Cheveley Park runner-up on this track could even start second favourite on the day if the French horse doesn't travel because of the ground.

Now, I may be doing my money in cold blood here (and am even more acutely aware it may be yours too, if you take this advice) but that is the risk with ante-post betting and I have to recommend a small-stakes win-only bet at 9/110.00 with the Sportsbook.

And, of course, any 10.09/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. She is 10/111.00 in the wider marketplace, for the sake of transparency.

She is one of only two 3yos in the race along with Coppice, and the Classic generation have a good recent record in this contest, including with Aidan O'Brien's winners Roly Poly and Alice Springs.

Newmarket - 14:05 Saturday: No bet

Right, the Sportsbook have also priced up the other two races at Newmarket, so is anything there doing betting wise as well?

I don't normally need any second invitation to take on short-priced favourites in big fields, but I do think Zoulu Chief probably just about deserves to be even money in the 29-strong auction race at 14:05. Or not far off it given how well his York win in a great time has worked out.

Woodhay Wonder, at 3/14.00, is the obvious danger but if there is an overpriced one further down the list it is maybe Beenham at 20/121.00, though her best form is with some dig.

Newmarket - 13:30 Saturday: No bet

The other ITV race is the 70k 3yo+ 0-105 1m2f fillies' handicap at 13:30 but you have to question the wisdom of the course also staging a 1m4f fillies' handicap for the same money on the same card for the same horses in the same handicap bracket.

It is madness, surely.

My eyes nearly popped out of my baldy head when seeing Madame Ambassador was 33/134.00 for the 1m2f race with the Sportsbook. But then I clocked she was also entered in the 1m4f contest as well, along with Prenup, Lady Boba, Aiming High and Shazam (Scenic is also entered on Friday, by the way).

I very nearly broke my double-entry rule by tipping Madame Ambassador, a four-length winner over course and distance last time out, at 33/134.00 but she also has 1m4f form, and I have no idea which way the stable will lean.

A reluctant pass.

Ascot - Saturday 15:35: No bet

There were 49 entries for Ascot's 7f Challenge Cup heritage handicap on Sunday - the other long-range ante-post market, I mentioned - and we are now down to 30, with a maximum field of just 18. The latter point is well worth noting as a fair few are likely to be disappointed.

The ground for Ascot's two-day meeting starting on Friday is currently good on the straight course and good, good to soft in places on the round course - I was expecting nearer good to firm before looking - after getting 2.8mm on Monday.

It is dry for the remainder of the week with, again, 23 degrees and blue skies on Saturday, so maybe we are looking at on the fast side of good.

The Sportsbook have priced up all four ITV races at the track, but I couldn't see much of an edge in the three Group and Listed races at this stage, and nothing much appealed in the handicap either, though the 25/126.00 about Escobar in the wider marketplace looked okay.

That said, his last three efforts on good to firm ground have been pretty woeful, so that would have to put you off with the current weather forecast. Maybe he wants a bit of cut these days.

The Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar at 14:45 is also on the telly box, and there are just 15 entries for the 150k race, which surprised and disappointed.

Dragon Leader is the 8/111.73 favourite here, with Kylian next best at [10/3). They are the form horses and, given the former is getting 13lb from the latter, the betting looks about right.

By the way, the ground at Redcar is currently good (good to firm) in places after 6mm of rain on Monday night - there is another 7mm due on Friday on the main site I use - and that is pretty much what is expected going-wise for the weekend.

Go well.

Watch Tony on Weighed-In