Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin takes a chance on Via Serendipity

It is Gentlemen's Day at Sandown on Saturday - cough, splutter - but we won't go there, and instead we will fast forward to the 1m handicap at 14:15.

The two terrestrial contests either side of that race do not make any great betting appeal, so I am happy to pass them by.

Hopefully, Via Serendipity can provide us with some pre Royal Ascot luck.

See what I did there?

Via Serendipity will surely go well

He has run well on all four of his starts at this track, including when winning this race when trained by Stuart Williams in 2018, and he rates a decent each-way bet at 10/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He is usually held up, but he has made all and has raced prominently when winning in the past, so 5lb claimer Harry Davies does have options if the horse bounces out promptly from trap eight of 10.

Davies is certainly on a well handicapped horse here, as Via Serendipity is just 1lb higher than when winning at Goodwood last September and is some 12lb lower than his all-weather mark.

And the 2lb that he was dropped for his Windsor run last time could prove very generous. That was a throw-out run if ever I saw one, as he never had any chance there on the outside in the small field, trying to play catch-up against an all-the-way winner on the rail.

He has loads of good turf handicap form off higher marks than this, and he normally needs at least a couple of runs to get him straight, too.

He surely has to go well even if I could stop a train with my tipping over the past few weeks.

I was very surprised to see him open up at 10s with the Betfair Sportsbook - though that was pretty much the price across the board - for that all he meets some younger, progressive opposition, mostly obviously Encouraged, and the in-form Ouzo.

But they both paid for their good runs last time with rises in the handicap and are opposable at the prices.

Interestingly, Via Serendipity was left in the Hunt Cup on Thursday afternoon, and he would need to win this to have any chance of getting in there under a 5lb penalty. The trainer won with two of his three runners on Thursday, with Davies on board one, and the other finished second after trading at 1.758/11 in running.

For what it is worth on the Esher card, I thought Night Of Luxury was half-interesting at around 8s in the opener at 13:40, as he had plenty left in the tank when winning at Leicester last time, so a 3lb rise was fair - though the runner-up did little for the form at Nottingham on Thursday afternoon - and he is bred to be much better than a 78-rated handicapper.

And Illustrating (who opened up at 12s with the Sportsbook) would be fair at a double-figure price in the 14:50, but neither appealed greatly as a solid bet, even if they were the ones I would focus on if you wanted a minor investment.

Slim pickings at York

Over at York, I thought there were also some very slim betting pickings in the four ITV races, so much so that I am not inclined to waste your time or mine by going through each contest and coming up with a no-bet conclusion.

If you are a forgiving type then Throne Hall, who has beaten just two horses in three starts this season, is handicapped to coast home in the opener at 14:00 at his best, but it is clearly a guess-up in his current nick, for all two of his better efforts have come over track and trip.

It is not a case of not having done the prep or homework, but the dog may well have eaten it for all the punting enlightenment I came up with.

And, with Royal Ascot around the corner, I make no apologies for being selective.

Price compensates for Pocket The Profit's berth

There is also an ITV race at Chester, and I will be interested to see if they chance Pocket The Profit from stall 11 here (while not suggesting for one moment that, if he does get pulled out, it would be the wide draw which prompted the withdrawal).

Mind you, it's a 100k race, so they will surely give it a crack, bad draw or not.

He was a costly failure for me when only sixth at Epsom last week but, in common with a few others there, he was ridden far too cold and patiently from the rear in a race in which the pace held up, and he got on a roll far too late.

To be fair (ish) to his jockey, I am not entirely sure he was in love with the track - I get the impression that Hayley Turner was happy with her position turning in, and then it all rather came undone - and this horse has a good 7f handicap in him off a mark of 86 (he got dropped 1lb for Epsom).

If Chester gets any passing showers then so much the better, as softer ground appears to suit him best, and I note they have been watering to maintain the current good going, so that's a plus.

Feel free to go overboard with the watering can, Chester.

Stall 11 of 14 is an obvious hardship, as it was when he was fifth here over 6f last month (he was housed in seven of nine, and needs 7f in the absence of deep ground).

It was just a matter of whether the enhanced price (due to the berth) compensated for that glaring negative but, as the 20/1+ was bigger than I was anticipating, I have decided it does, so a win-only bet is recommended at 21.020/1 or bigger in the 15:20.

He is 20s with the Sportsbook, who are offering four places.

I noticed it took a while on Thursday for George Boughey to declare a jockey on the horse, but he found one in the end at 12:40.

So over to you, Kieran O'Neill; you can get busy as early as you like on a horse who will get a mile in time.

Good luck this weekend, all.

The cool before the warmth, the calm before the storm (as Paul Weller may have written if he had penned this column).

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 116

Returns: 177.9pts

P/L: +61.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1