Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin likes Harry in the Betfair Sprint Cup

I doubt that I watched more than a dozen races live in August, so it is fair to say I had a lot of catching up to do when I started to look at the weekend cards on Wednesday.

When going back and looking at the racing last month, the thing that struck me most is how the York Ebor meeting, like Glorious Goodwood, could easily lose at least one day - both clearly struggle quality-wise to fill their space, and probably always have done so in truth - but thankfully Saturday has some competitive, meaty offerings to dissect.

Three cheers if Harry wins the Betfair Sprint Cup

At first glance, Haydock's Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup looked impossible.

On second viewing, it got even harder, as we have a full field of 17 and it has a congested look to it from a ratings perspective.

Most of the pace looks to be low but the in-form Brad The Brief can be expected to go forward from 15, so maybe a high draw isn't that much of the negative it initially seemed.

Let's hope so as I am going to give Harry Three, in 14, a chance to bounce back from a slightly disappointing 4-length 10th in the Maurice de Gheest last time.

To be fair, that wasn't a bad effort considering he was stepping up to Group 1 company from Listed level in one fell swoop, and I also think he was disadvantaged by racing a touch freely and seeing far too much daylight on the near side at Deauville.

Apparently, he is a quirky sort and he probably needs burying and delivering late.

Prior to that, he had shown a pretty devastating turn of foot to win at that course and at York, and he remains a 3yo with plenty of upside, even though he needs to improve 7lb or so to be winning this.

However, I was hugely surprised to see him open at 33/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook on Thursday morning - that was pretty much immediately cut into 22s, then 20/1 and ending up at the current price of 14/1 - but I am backing him win-only at 18.017/1 or bigger in the 15:30 contest.

With such a competitive and deep field, an each-way bet doesn't appeal, even with the enhanced place terms. I should say the ground is currently good to firm (good in places), with very little rain currently due until race-time.

Dancing might be able to produce some Magic

Of course, runaway Ascot winner Naval Power deserves to be favourite in the opener at 13:15 - he is currently ½ on the fixed-odds front - but I'd be inclined towards Newbury runner-up Dancing Magic at double-figure odds (currently 11/1) if I was tempted to bet in the race.

Which I am not, admittedly.

But Dancing Magic posted a good time when second at Newbury (where he was in front a long time and got mugged late on), the four horses immediately behind him have all won since, and his pedigree strongly suggests this Camelot colt will improve for the extra 1f.

He missed an intended engagement at Salisbury last month after getting upset in the stalls it seems, which is not ideal, but maybe I will check him out on the Without Favourite market when that appears on the site.

Hoping a wager on Boy does not fall by the Bayside

I had a rare short-priced bet on Bayside Boy when he disappointed at Goodwood last time, but I am willing to give him another chance in 13:45.

Simply put, he looks far too big a price - he opened up at 13/2 in a couple of places on Thursday morning - so I am backing him at 7.06/1 or bigger.

That is obviously a very big price on his juvenile form, which included a head defeat of favourite Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes as well as Group 1-placed efforts - and on his Royal Ascot run this term, too - and I can certainly see the angle of first-time blinkers for him too after his moody Goodwood run.

Roger Varian has an average record with this headgear move (11 from 132 since 2011) but perhaps they can do the job here. And maybe they will look to ride Bayside Boy more prominently here, even with the likes of Marie's Diamond in the race, especially as he shapes as if further may suit down the line as well.

On form, he should be no more than 4s here, if that, so I would be willing to play at 5/1 and upwards.

More prominent ride could suit Speycaster

There were a few people grumbling about the ride Post Impressionist got when weak in the betting at Beverley last week and, up to 1m6f and down 2lb in the weights, you can certainly see the case for him in the 14:20. Last week's race was worth 16k to the winner, and this is 51k. More urgency can be expected.

The opening industry-best 16/1 (subsequently cut into 12s) about him looked very fair - and I may have a saver on him win-only on the exchange at around 16s if I can get it - but I am not enamored by the fact he is drawn 16 of 16.

With that in mind, I am going to chuck a few quid win-only on Speycaster at 12.011/1 or bigger instead.

He was unable to take advantage of his low draw over 1m6f here on soft ground last time when stumbling coming out of the stalls - and it was quite a bad stumble too, costing him a few lengths and any chance of obtaining a forward position - so in the circumstances he did well to beaten just 4 ½ lengths into fourth.

He is obviously something of a character (was gelded before his latest run) and presumably they thought he wasn't putting it all in here last time too, so they try him in blinkers.

Ralph Beckett is 30-189 with this headgear since 2009, generating a very healthy level-stakes profit into the equation, and I think, like Bayside Boy, they could go forward with him again. This better ground may suit him better, too.

He was ridden relatively handy when beating a certain Deauville Legend (now rated 115) at Chelmsford last season and I think being ridden prominently from stall three makes perfect sense.

Any 10/1+ (he is 10s with Sportsbook) is obviously hunky dory, too.

Hard to oppose jolly in Old Borough Cup but Island did catch the eye

Soulcombe dominates the betting for the Old Borough Cup at 14:55 and perhaps rightly so.

He was ridiculously impressive when winning the Melrose in a very good time and I am not in a mad rush to oppose him, even off a 14lb higher mark.

The course winner could still be a grade or two above these off his revised mark of 97, but it was a no-bet race for me as I can't be backing horses at his price in big-field handicaps (from a wide draw, too) and nothing among the opposition had a particularly appealing look to them either at their current odds.

Mind you, we do have three recent winners of this race in here, namely the likes of Island Brave, Euchen Glen and Reshoun and all come here in fair nick.

And the more I looked at the former, the more I thought he was a big price at 25/1 each way, four places, as he ran his best race of the year when fourth at Ascot last time and is 3lb lower than when winning this race last year.

However, I was not alone as he was cut into 16s at around 1pm on Thursday, so my interest in the contest ended there.

Cherry worth chancing at Ascot

There are also two cracking handicaps on the box at Ascot (and some equally good ones on Sky Sports Racing afterwards too) but I have to admit the 7f contest at 15:10 defeated me.

My two against the field are probably River Nymph and Shining Blue, both at around 14/1+ on the exchange - the latter looks an awkward ride but I can see the step down to 7f suiting him and he shapes as if a better horse than his current mark - but I could have added three or more to the shortlist in truth.

The 1m4f handicap at 15:45 is very competitive and I actually don't think the favourite First Ruler is a bad price at around 4/1 on the exchange, but I am going to risk a win-only bet on Double Cherry at 14/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

It could be that they pull the horse out if they don't get more than the forecast rain - he has been entered up a few times in recent weeks but has never been declared - but I am willing to take a chance regardless.

He was very impressive when winning in the soft over 1m4f at Goodwood - he beat two subsequent winners there - and was then given what I thought was a very strange ride by Jim Crowley when well punted, stepped up to 1m6f, at Haydock last time.

Perhaps the horse wasn't helping him by hanging, but he didn't get particularly serious on the horse (who hit 2.226/5 in running) at any stage, and he merely plugged on into sixth.

I think he is a lot better than that, and hopefully he can show it if given the green light here, back down to 1m4f. Any 11/1 or bigger will be fine, if necessary.

Honour should oblige but no bets at Kempton

I couldn't see a bet in the two ITV races at Kempton.

I'll be disappointed if Dubai Honour can't win the September Stakes at 14:05, as he is a horse I rate, but it is certainly no gimme and I thought even his exchange price of upwards than 6/4 was a touch on the skinny side as it is a very fair Group 3. I'd be wanting 2/1 to consider getting involved myself.

First View and Fantasy Believer interested me most at around 5/1 and 16/1 respectively in the London Mile handicap at 14:40 - the former, seventh in the John Smith's Cup last time and two from two here as a juvenile, is very much the right favourite - but it did look a very tricky race.

Saeed bin Suroor is superb when trying new headgear and he sticks cheekpieces on First View (23 from 111 since 2016) and Fantasy Believer is on the big side at 16/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook (paying four places), but I can let the contest pass me by without a bet, especially as the 5lb claimer on the favourite could face a tricky passage from his midfield draw in seven.

Best of luck. The claimer, and you.