Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin is backing 6/1 Kinross for July Cup glory

• Tony takes aim at the entire Saturday ITV Racing card

• Kinross is his headline tip in the July Cup

• And he has two to play in the John Smith's Cup at York

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There is rain due at all of the three Saturday ITV tracks from Friday onwards - Newmarket, Ascot and York - but forecasting just how much is difficult to gauge.

A lot of the sites disagree on the amounts due. Surprise, surprise.

Writing this on Thursday afternoon, I am going to work on the basis of good to soft ground at Newmarket and Ascot, and maybe even a touch deeper at York, but keep an eye out over the next 24 hours.

There could easily be even more dig at all courses on Saturday afternoon if the more extreme forecasts land, as some sites are predicting 9mm+ alone at all three on Friday.

Then again they could miss all the rain and it will ride on the quick side everywhere, such is the life of a punter.

With 10 ITV races to go at, I am not going to spend too much time talking about no-bet races, but we will kick off with the July Cup at 16:35.

Newmarket July Cup - 16:35 - Back Kinross @ 7.06/1

I fully respect the chances of the improvers Shaquille and Azure Blue - and I'd favour the filly at the prices as I am not totally sold on the solidity of the Commonwealth Cup form, for all Shaquille obviously did remarkably well to win given he blew the start - but there is no doubt in my mind that Kinross brings the best form to the table as it stands (with the exception of Little Big Bear's 2yo form admittedly, but the jury is very much out on him, especially with his well-publicised setback leading into the race).

Now, I am a slightly worried about whether Kinross the pace to win over a quick 6f here, and I suspect you won't see him asserting until well inside the final furlong, but I do like his chances and any significant rain on top of heavily-watered ground will be in his favour.

Well, as long as he is drawn in the right place, but at least we only have nine runners on that score.

He clearly goes on quick ground - he won the City Of York Stakes on good to firm and was an unlucky third from a wide draw in the Breeders' Cup Mile on officially firm in November - but I just think a bit of ease would suit him over this trip.

And the presence of Art Power, and maybe Shaquille and Little Big Bear, should give him a fair pace to aim at.

The dual Group 1 winner has several pieces of form that should really have him heading the market here - he was very good when winning the Prix de la Foret and the Champions Sprint at Ascot in October - and it is just a matter of how forgiving you are about his comeback run behind Khaadem in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

To my eye, he (and maybe his jockey after a long week) just got very tired on his first run since November, and he was nursed home in the final furlong, so I don't think being beaten five lengths was that off-putting as regards his chances here.

I had a bit on him at 6/17.00 ante-post and he remains a bet for me at 7.06/1 or bigger, though there obviously will be a Rule 4 if Little Big Bear is ruled out. The 11/26.50 with the Sportsbook is obviously fine.

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Emaraaty Ana, a good sixth at 66/1 in this race last season, ran a big race at 33/134.00 and upwards.

By the way, apologies to those who took my advice and backed Lezoo ante-post for the race.

It was a mystifying decision of the owners (they seemed to be driving the decision, not the trainer) not to run their Group 1-winning filly, with excellent course form, in such an open July Cup, but let's at least hope they win it with their Kinross instead now.

Newmarket - 14:50 - Back Coco Jack each-way @ 20/121.00

The 12-runner 1m handicap at 14:50 includes two horses that are due to run in the 15:25 at Ascot on Friday - Metal Merchant and Sniper's Eye - so be aware of that.

The likely lads in here are Tafreej, Royal Dubai and Havana Blue, but they dominate the market and I have been sucked in by Coco Jack, in first-time cheekpieces.

He hasn't won since scoring at Hamilton last August but he has run consistently well in defeat since - a reproduction of his second to Lion Of War at Musselburgh on his penultimate start would see him be very competitive here - and perhaps the headgear could be the missing piece of the winning jigsaw.

George Scott is only five from 51 with first-time cheekpieces though and it seems like he wouldn't want any significant rain for the horse (though even good to soft would surely be fine, as he has plenty of form on that) but I have to take a pop at him at the price.

The stable is going along okay, with 16/117.00 and 15/28.50 winners of late, and hopefully it can all fall in place for him here.

He has looked on a few occasions as if some headgear would help straighten him out, including in the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot last time. There isn't a lot of pace in here - I had Milteye down as the likely leader - but hopefully Coco Jack can travel kindly and sit handy.

I was surprised when the first two firms up on Thursday made him as big as 20/121.00 and 18/119.00, so back him each way at 20/121.00.

Newmarket - 15:25 - No bet

One of the most striking 2yo debuts this season - betting without Asadna at Ripon, obviously - was City Of Troy's win at the Curragh earlier in the month and I get the impression connections will be very surprised if he is beaten in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at 15:25.

Don't get me wrong, the betting tells you as much, but the manner in which he went through the line at the Curragh hinted at a colt of rare promise.

But he is obviously not a betting proposition for me at his price, up in class and meeting a much better class of opposition on a track that can throw up funny results.

If anything, I thought Coventry fifth Haatem was probably the bet in the race, each way, if there was one.

Newmarket - 16:00 - No bet

The 7f Bunbury Cup at 16:00 looks an absolute minefield of a race and I am not tempted to play. On a manic day of racing, one thing you don't need to be doing as a punter is forcing a bet.

Streets Of Gold is the obvious one for me, as he is 4lb well-in after his Jersey third, he has winning course form and a good midfield draw in 10 (it gives the jockey "options", as they say) but it's not a betting opinion. I thought the Sportsbook's 9/110.00 is fair, though. Popmaster is scheduled to run at Ascot on Friday.

As regards the pace, I have it middle to high, with the most obvious forward-goers in 12, 16, 19 and 20.

York - 14:00 - No bet

We also have four ITV races at York and, as stated above, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world were we looking at borderline soft ground on Saturday if they get a real deluge from here on in.

First up on the box is a 0-105 1m handicap at 14:00 and there are at least four forward-goers in here, so they shouldn't be hanging around.

Aramaic interested me most at around 7/18.00 or bigger after an improved effort - though I could see the case for the inconsistent Rhoscolyn running better with more dig in the ground and down to a mark of 91 - but significant rain could be an issue for him, I guess.

It is a very trappy handicap that I am happy to leave alone.

York - 14:35 - No bet

I would have been all over Regional in the 5f Listed race at 14:35, as I thought he posted a stunning effort in a very quick time at Haydock last time, and 7/24.50 would have been very fair on good ground.

The trainer immediately namechecked this race afterwards for this course winner, but two things stopped me from playing at his relatively short price.

One wasn't the penalty he picked up for winning at Haydock, but they are the weather forecast (they think he wants fast ground) and the pace map. He is drawn in 10, but there is speed all around him in 8, 9, and 11 and this could set up for a closer.

Mondammej anyone?

York - 15:10 - Back Millebosc at 15.014/1

It is almost obligatory to have a pop at the John's Smith Cup at 15:10, a race which is worth over 103 bags of sand to the winner.

There are seven horses officially well-in for this early closer - chief among them Long Tradition, raised 14lb for his Chelmsford win but who can race off just a 5lb penalty - but I am going to dutch two.

The first is a very speculative dart at Millebosc at 15.014/1 or bigger, basically on the grounds that he is trained by William Haggas.

He does have a bit more going for him than that, in that this 2021 French Derby third is now racing off a mark of just 97, and he is having just his second start for the trainer.

However, he clearly must have had his problems as we have not seen him since November when he made a promising debut for the yard, as I doubt even Haggas is that patient.

He did win this race with Sinjaari off a long break in 2020 though and that horse was having his first start since being gelded, as does Millebosc here. Let's hope he is William special.

York - 15:10 - Back White Wolf @ 17.016/1

My main bet is White Wolf at 17.016/1 or bigger, though, stablemate of Long Tradition.

He is ground-versatile and this lightly-raced gelding (this is just his 10^th start) has run three decent races this season, most obviously when just touched off at Chelmsford, though it is his run in the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap over 1m4f at Royal Ascot last time that alerted me to his chances.

Now, it is now quite clear (from his three runs over the trip) that he doesn't quite get 1m4f but the way in which he travelled into the Ascot race, and picked up from the turn to 1f out with a dangerous-looking run, really caught my eye.

He bottomed out close home but he was beaten just 3 ½ lengths and the step down in trip is a massive plus.

It's clearly a massively competitive handicap but I am quite sweet on his chances.

Millesbosc and White Wolf are also 14/115.00 and 16/117.00 respectively with the Sportsbook, so feel free to back them there (each way punters are getting five places), but I'll settle at Betfair SP.

York - 15:45 - No bet

Hamish looks a very solid favourite in the 1m6f Group 3 at 15:45 but Tashkhan can give him a race if the rains come, though I appreciate that will suit the jolly, too.

I wouldn't like to be laying Tashkhan at 5/16.00 each way, even if this is a six-runner heat, as he has the talent to give the odds-on jolly a fright, even if you have to go back to Ascot in October 2021 to make a winning case for him.

Ascot - 13:45 - No Bet

The Ascot coverage starts at 13:45 with the work of the devil in the shape of a 19-runner 5f handicap.

If the cheekpieces will hopefully perk up Coco Jack, then a lot of those loyal to Whenthedealisdone in this race will be hoping first-time blinkers, replacing the pieces, revive his fortunes (Roger Teal is three from 32 with this switch since 2009).

He has dropped from 98 to 92 after four runs this season and he is now 8lb lower than when a good fourth over course and distance in October, so his handicapping chance is clear.

I actually think he is a fair price at around 14/115.00 from his midfield draw but I can leave this race well alone. He could run well and finish seventh.

Ascot - 14:20 - No bet

There is some serious prize money flying around on Saturday as we also have the 140k Group 2 Summer Mile at 14:20.

Thankfully, the field has held up pretty well, with nine runners from 15 at the five-day stage, but I won't be having a bet at this stage.

If Ascot get plenty of rain, then Aldaary is my idea of the winner - the general 9/25.50 about him was bigger than I expected - but the problem is that his price will contract if they do!

And the race does have depth.

Oh, just a reminder.

I said I would back Nashwa at 9/25.50 in the Falmouth Stakes on Friday if and when she hit that price. She is drifting a touch and the current exchange price is now 5.39/2, so we are nearly there!

Good luck on such a busy Saturday. Stake sensibly.

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Now read Kevin Blake on Saturday's racing in his exclusive Betfair column

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