Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin can't let Carjac go unbacked in Paddy Power Gold Cup

• Our man hopes Deyrann is no car-crash in PP Gold Cup
• Skelton runner looks well-treated and sure to run well
• Henderson could have handicap snip on his hands

He is 4lb out of the handicap, he damages more fences than a Force 10 gale and he is basically everything like a hound dog, as Elvis may have once sung by mistake, but there is no way on earth that I am going to let Deyrann De Carjac go unbacked with the pace set-up that confronts him in Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup at 14:20 on Saturday.

Side with him win-only at 26.025/1 or bigger on the exchange.

He is also 22s with the Sportsbook, who are paying five places, if you want to back him there each way, but it is an on-the-nose job for me.

Waiting ride could pay dividends in Paddy Power burn up

Negatives galore, readily admitted, but it is all about the price, stupid. He is currently 29.028/1 on the exchange, and I imagine he could well get bigger given the profile. 25/1+ is good for me, though.

The thing that immediately strikes you when looking at this big handicap is that there are a shedload of forward-goers in the race, and there is no shortage of potential winners too, as it is devilishly competitive.

I won't bore you by reeling off that list, as it is basically all of the 16-strong field, but I happen to feel that Deyrann De Carjac - or car-crash, as he has become known after a winless spell heading back to November 2019 - is being slightly disrespected in the market.

Granted, he added to his glowing reputation for getting beaten when somehow contriving to get chinned on his return at Wetherby last month, easing into the lead after the second-last, scooting clear and somehow managing to get chinned close home. The only surprise was that he didn't go lower than 1.031/33 in running.

Considering that he is effectively 8lb higher in a much deeper handicap here - though he has been rated 16lb higher in the past - I can accept the cynicism that will come my way, especially as you will hear a lot in the next 48 hours about the need to be handy in this race.

But, take away the emotion and the ridicule, and that Wetherby run was a good return - he clearly got there too soon - and the fact is a lot of his best runs have come at this stiff-jumping track.

And, despite being 4lb out of the handicap here, this is the lowest chase mark he has run off at this course.

He will have his preferred decent ground and, while I know nothing of 5lb claimer Harry Kimber - other than the fact that I thought of Harrison Ford in The Fugitive when I typed his name - I see he has ridden 17 winners at a strike rate of some 26% this season (rising to 29% in chases).

I'll happily have the 5lb claim on my side in those circumstances and a waiting ride could just pay dividends. I'll take my win-only chances at the price, anyway.

Well-treated and optimum conditions for Skelton's canoe

I thought Sole Pretender was overpriced at around 18s on the exchange in the Arkle Trial at 13:45, though he was always going to be ignored in the betting with sexier types like Monmiral and Banbridge in the line-up. I may chuck a few quid at him but I will leave him alone for the purposes of tipping.

That is certainly not the case with Padleyourowncanoe, who I am definitely both selecting and punting at 7/1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook, four places in the 14:55.

A market over-view before we proceed.

He was available at 16/1 ante-post and was briefly 12/1 in a place when the market reopened on Thursday morning, and the Sportsbook's industry-best 9/1 early that afternoon was still generous. Too generous obviously, as that got clipped into 7/1 soon afterwards.

But I still think the 7s is backable. In fact, I'd have him vying for favourtism myself, but maybe he has hit his mark now.

His hurdles mark of 123 looks something of a gift if Dan Skelton has him back on song for this - he was rated 142 in this sphere after a Boxing Day hurdles win in 2018 - and his record when fresh gives you plenty of encouragement on that score.

He finished third, beaten under 6 lengths, off a mark of 135 first time out when a 40/1 chance at Haydock last season (the soft ground may not have been ideal there, but he still shaped very promisingly, hitting 4s in the run) , as well as winning on his 2019 reappearance, to go with other good efforts when fresh, and quite simply the handicapper has given him a huge chance, back over hurdles.

This is a horse who finished fourth in a Fred Winter and eighth in a Pertemps here in the past and, from what I can see, 3m on good ground are his optimum conditions. He is only an 8yo too, so not the usual teenager I get lured in by.

I'd be pretty keen on his chances, and I'll be disappointed if this is a lung-opening prep before he renews his chasing career.

Henderson's Wiseguy could leave these for dead

Talking of the handicapper being lenient, I bet Nicky Henderson was a touch delighted when his Wiseguy got a mark of just 119, so little wonder he is 10/3 favourite for the 2m5f handicap hurdle at 15:30.

This is a horse who beat Hillcrest in his bumper, and then won a maiden hurdle over 3m at that track last December, form which entitled him to a higher starting mark than 119. For starters, the horse he beat 7 ½ lengths off levels there has run well in defeat since and is now rated 120.

Now, he looked like a work in progress there and he missed the rest of season with an injury, but they might not see which way he goes here if fully wound up.

I don't pay too much attention to stable tours, other than looking for running plans, but Henderson said recently that "his future is bright, extremely bright." Make of that what you will but that doesn't suggest ole' Nicky thinks he is a 119-rated handicapper to me.

But, at around 7/2 on the exchange in a decent handicap with depth, I can let him go unsupported.

Guernesey was a big market mover at Sandown on Sunday, only to unseat at the second, so he could be interesting at around 8/1, and of course the Irish coming over mob-handed for this would concern you as well.

We also have two all-weather races from Lingfield on ITV but I am going to leave it there.

Very short and sharp for a Saturday column but I make no excuses for keeping it tight, and not forcing bets, on such a busy three days of racing on the box.

Back for more on Sunday's racing.

Good luck.