Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Lord and Lion in Betfair Exchange Trophy

• 3/14.00 Iberico Lord can win hot Betfair Exchange Trophy

• 12/113.00 Nemean Lion is a smart saver

• 16/117.00 Dr Kananga could reward leap of faith

• Completely free bet on multis on any sport on Boxing Day

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Paisley Park Superboost

Take advantage of the Betfair Sportsbook's Superboost in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot today. You can back Paisley Park to finish in the top four at the boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 4/61.67). Just click on the 'Bet now' tab below.

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Given the excellent prize money on offer I am glad to see that most of the fields at Ascot have held up pretty well at the overnight stage.

There were only 72 entries for the six-race card on Monday but we are left with 51, with the obvious disappointment being the three-runner 50k Graduation Chase at 13:15.

Good work by whoever got that replaced on the ITV schedule. Unfortunately, it is only a seven-runner handicap in its place but that is clearly a better option for punters and viewers.

Ascot 15:00 - Antepost bet Flegmatik

The only ante-post bet I could see on Monday was Flegmatik at 12/113.00 in the 100k 3m handicap chase at 15:00, so that was actually one race I would have liked to have seen decimated at the overnight stage.

Alas no. As it is, only Angels Breath has declined the invitation to run, so the 12s was not the bargain I thought it would be, though it still beats the general 11s in the marketplace. The Sportsbook are ducking him at 8s anyway.

I could also have done without the 15mm of rain that landed on the track on Tuesday for him, but it has been dry since, and is set to remain that way, and the going as of Thursday morning is good to soft.

The going stick readings suggest it may be a touch deeper, but the ground shouldn't be an issue for him.

The case for him is quite simple really, even though he is on a losing run of eight starts and can throw in the odd stinker.

He bumped into one who is excellent when fresh in Your Darling here last time (that horse has form figures of 1311191 off breaks of more than 100 days) and he got dropped 1lb for that second placing, which I thought was very reasonable, as that leaves him only 2lb higher than when just touched off in the old Racing Post Trophy at Kempton back in February, with the third 11 lengths back.

That is a valuable handicap many thought he should have won, chief among them, no doubt, his in-running backers as he hit a low of 1.21/5 there when sent to the front three out. It is fair to say the jockey would have held him on to him for longer had he the chance again.

Over this trip in this ground, he will surely be played a lot later and if he reproduces that Kempton run (which came in a good time) then he has a very fair chance.

I am not inclined to press up at the current Sportsbook price of 8/19.00 though, and clearly all of the big dangers remain in the race.

I am probably most wary of Yeah Man, as he could well have been coming to pick up Victtorino here last time (we will never know but he traded at a low of 1.728/11, if he hadn't had fallen at the last. Up 2lb, he remains on a fair mark, but he does need to improve his jumping and he hasn't been missed in the market at around 5s.

Ascot 13:50 - No bet

The new race on ITV is the seven-runner 2m2f177yd chase at 13:50 - the switch was made easier as both this and the original ITV race are sponsored by the same person - and it's a tricky one.

I don't think anyone would have envisaged Shan Blue running off 142 again over fences after his performance in the Charlie Hall in 2021 but he is clearly a dubious proposition here, as are a few others (four of the seven were pulled up last time out and Harper's Brook ran badly in the Paddy Power).

The solid ones are Triple Trade and Cap du Mathan, and the latter is preferred, as he was dropped 2lb for a good fourth here over 2m1f last time and stays this trip well. The lead could well be Cobden's if they want it, too.

However, the price of around 7/24.50 is nothing too flash.

Ascot 14:25 - No bet

All 10 five-day entries for the Grade 1 Long Walk at 14:25 confirmed on Thursday morning, so nothing has changed, including the betting.

Crambo remains a classic case of a horse I wanted to get with, but not at his price of around 4.57/2 on the Exchange and 3s with the Sportsbook.

While accepting this is a very winnable Grade 1 (only four of the 10 are rated in the 150s), the fact remains Crambo is rated just 142 after his handicap third at Haydock last time. He has upwards of a stone to find with the likes of Dashel Drasher and the past winners of this race, Paisley Park (in 2018, 2020 and 2022) and Champ (2021).

But he really should have won at Haydock (a race that Sam Spinner took off a mark of 139 in 2017 before winning this on his next start) and the 6yo clearly has more mileage in him than the old form crew of 10 and 11yos.

You simply have let to horses you fancy pass you by if the price isn't right. I'd be looking for at least 5.59/2 or bigger on the Exchange myself.

Ascot 15:35 - Back Iberico Lord

The complexion of the 150k Betfair Exchange Trophy at 15:35 changed somewhat at the overnight stage, with six significant withdrawals in Sceau Royal, Black Poppy, Lookaway, Spirit D'Aunou, Park Annociade and Go Dante.

The first-two will presumably be going for easy place prize money now in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day, and Sceau Royal's absence could be significant as the weights were raised 3lb as a result. That means the wayward Onlyamatteroftime is now 1lb out of the handicap.

It remains a red-hot race but all roads led to Iberico Lord for me, and I don't think his price of around 3/14.00 with the Sportsbook is bad at all.

In fact, I am having some at 3s and above, though it will have to be a cash bet for me for the time being.

Basically, I was hugely taken by his run in defeat at Sandown last season and I thought he breezed home in a very good time in the Greatwood on his return. I am not inclined to think an 8lb rise will stop him.

In fact, I reckon he could end up as the best 2m hurdler in the UK outside of Constitution Hill by the end of the season, not that that is saying a great deal at the moment.

That is some way off but, off a mark of 134 here, he will take some stopping, I believe. The Greatwood fourth and sixth have won since, too. Take the 3/14.00 or [4.0] or bigger on the Exchange. He is currently 4.216/5 on the latter.

Ascot 15:35 - Back Nemean Lion

With the Sportsbook offering four places, I am going to have a saver on Nemean Lion at 12/113.00 each-way.

He went off at 6s for the Greatwood and he would have finished a lot closer had he not clouted the last two hurdles. The horses either side of him at the finish have won since, as outlined above, and I think he will finish in the first four.

He is actually one of six horses still in the Christmas Hurdle, although that has no real bearing on this race. So I have no idea why I mentioned it.

Haydock 13:30 - Back Dr Kananga

The weather at Haydock has thankfully not been as bad as was forecast at the start of the week, but they have still had 11mm Monday to Thursday morning, and the going is heavy, soft in places, on the chase track and the reverse is true on the hurdles circuit.

With possibly another 16mm to come from hereon in to race-time on Saturday though, it will be heavy everywhere.

The Tommy Whittle at 13:30 came down from 18 to nine at the overnight stage and it wouldn't surprise me if Cooper's Cross came out on account of the ground. One more no-show and we are looking at the dreaded seven.

Thankfully, each-way betting doesn't enter the equation for me here.

Backing Dr Kananga requires a leap of faith as he has run like a drain since his novices' hurdle second at Bangor last season. However, he has a wind op since we last saw him and he has come down a hefty 12lb for his last three chase runs.

He is now 12lb lower than when sent off 8/19.00 for a 22-runner Becher last December and he loves the mud, as form figures of 112 underlined.

I am happy to take a chance on him at double figures, win only to small stakes. Back him at 16/117.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook. I was expecting nearer 10s.

Ben Clarke's small string had a winner at Fontwell last week (it finished alone but it was winning anyway), he had a runner narrowly touched off at Wincanton on Tuesday, as well as a 200/1201.00 third at Lingfield earlier this month.

The 1m7f144yd handicap hurdle at 14:05 has cut up from 15 to eight, and each way punters please be aware that one of those, Jagwar, is currently down to run at Ascot on Friday.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they made a late switch though, and decided to come to Haydock, as this looks an easier race. Keep an eye out there, then.

I was leaning towards tipping Goobinator at 8s for this race on Tuesday, but he was also entered in the opening 2m3f handicap on the card, as well as the trainer and owner Tim Leslie also having Word Has it in the entries.

As it is, both run, and this is a race that Donald McCain won in 2021, and had the runner-up either side of that victory in 2020 and 2022.

Goobinator won off a long absence off a mark of 83 on the Flat on heavy ground at Catterick on Halloween night, so a hurdles perch of 122 looks exploitable, especially as he has been rated 11lb higher in this sphere.

I was very tempted by him at 13/27.50 but he has to back up that Flat run (his first since May 2022) and he hasn't always impressed with his hurdling. And betting in very bad ground at Haydock (and I reckon it could be very deep) always come with risks, even though he is a dual scorer on heavy.

Furthermore, the Sportsbook have Jagwar in at 11/43.75 and so are looking at a likely fairly decent (or indecent) Rule 4. I'll mostly likely update the column once I know what Jagwar is doing.

In summary, Goobinator was a very narrow pass as regards this column, though.

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Update - (11am Friday morning)

Jagwar is a non-runner at Ascot today (Friday) so I imagine he will run in the 14:05 at Haydock on Saturday, and have an excellent chance. Completely unexposed after just two starts, a mark of just 119 makes him the one to beat.

It could well be that the race now holds up as having eight runners for each-way backers, which would make Gooibinator an attractive enough win and place option at 13/27.50 - though he is a point bigger in several places - but be warned the ground at Haydock has worsened further after 6mm on Thursday and there is more rain to come.

It really could be one of those days when even heavy ground horses don't like it, as we saw at Aintree recently.

Go well.

Back on Saturday afternoon with my Boxing Day thoughts.

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Read Paul Nicholls: Solo to star in my Ascot Saturday seven

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Watch Racing... Only Bettor HERE