Tony Calvin Tips

Racing...Only Bettor

Rhys Williams Tips

Daily Racing Multiple

Today's Racing News

Racing Results & Replays

Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Bay Bridge to seize the day

Tony Calvin
01 July 2022
5:00 min read

TC is backing two at Sandown and one at Haydock on Saturday

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Tony Calvin aims for an upturn in fortunes with three bets for Saturday afternoon including Ryan Moore's ride in the Eclipse at Sandown...

"A reproduction of that Sandown run may actually be good enough here, so I am chucking a few quid on him at 5.24/1 or bigger."

Back Bay Bridge 15:35 Sandown @ 5.24/1

I am down on Saturday's racing already as my ante-post selection in the Eclipse, Dubai Honour, is a no-show - surprisingly, he is tried over 1m4f again at Saint-Cloud on Sunday - but that is part and parcel of the game.

Apologies, though. Doing your money without a run is the worst betting experience.

My general tipping form could certainly be a lot better too - you have to be up front about these things - but we have some high-class racing and good handicaps to go at this weekend, so fingers crossed for a change in fortunes.

Stellar Eclipse tough to solve

The Eclipse has cut up to six runners, from 11 at the five-day stage, but it is a stellar cast and not an easy puzzle to solve. Cogent cases for all six can be made at their respective prices.

French Derby winner Vadeni stands out in terms of potential but his price has been whittled away to just 6/4 now (though he has just hit 2/1 on the exchange as I write), while Native Trail remains the least attractive at his current odds (around 3s) to these eyes.

The overpriced one is arguably Mishriff. If he returns to the form of his 6-length defeat of Alenquer in the Juddmonte then all of these will have to raise their game to win.

But whether he's ready for this - we haven't seen him since his Saudi trek in late February - is anyone's guess, so that is a fair if. He was a reasonably tame third of four in this race last season, having previously won the Sheema Classic in March.

As I am sure you will hear numerous times in the coming 24 hours or so, there is no guaranteed pace on in here, which complicates matters. But, as State Of Rest showed in beating Bay Bridge at Royal Ascot, doubt creates an opportunity for one of the jockeys to seize.

Bay Bridge the bet at the odds

If you take the view that Bay Bridge wasn't seen to best effect when second to the front-running winner in the tactical Prince Of Wales's Stakes - and it was clearly no disgrace to finish a length second to a four-time Group 1 scorer, with the rest well beaten off - then he is the bet at the current odds.

He went off at 10/11 at Ascot after that seriously impressive course and distance win in the Brigadier Gerard and, on ground likely to be a touch easier here - which his jockey believes will suit him - maybe he is the answer.

And let's go back to the course win here in May.

He beat Mostahdaf by 5 lengths there, pulling a cart, and the runner-up went on to split Broome and Hurricane Lane in the Hardwicke. And the fourth, Dubai Future, won the Wolferton by three lengths.

A reproduction of that Sandown run may actually be good enough here, so I am chucking a few quid on him at 5.24/1 or bigger.

I'd be very happy with 4s, and willing to take 7/2+. Alenquer has been the one for money on Friday morning.

I am not having a bet in the opener at 13:50, but Tippy Toes came closest.

She is the lowest-rated in here but she gets 8lb from the older horses and she has shaped a lot better than her finishing positions suggests since winning at Chelmsford in April.

She was a good sixth in Group 2 company at 50/1 at Haydock and was one of a few hard luck stories when in midfield at Royal Ascot in the 5f handicap. In her case, she had one of the more unfortunate runs as she got brought to a halt at one stage and was still beaten just 4 ½ lengths.

But it's a very tight race, and she could run a career-best and finish fifth.

Prince a good price to upset favourite

I have no problem at all with Sinjaari being a relatively short favourite for the 1m handicap at 14:25, as he is 1lb lower than when flashing home to finish a good fifth in the Hunt Cup.

But you'd struggle to argue he is a betting proposition, even at around 11/4, so Tahitian Prince is a low-level bet at 15.014/1 or bigger for me, win-only on the Exchange.

I appreciate the 14s with the Betfair Sportsbook went on Thursday evening (into 10s there), but I would be loathe to go any lower than 15.014/1 myself, with 13.012/1 an absolute minimum.

He has the profile of a horse that could be weak near the off, so you may be best holding on till you can match some 14s+ on the exchange.

Here is the case for him.

Now, regular readers (and Podcast listeners) will know that I pay next to no attention to jockeys, but I really was put to the test here.

Betfair Betting Podcast · Racing Only Bettor | Episode 182 | Ignore Jockey Bookings

The riding arrangements were slow to come through for this horse, but Sam Hitchcott's name appeared at around midday.

The Sam Hitchcott who hasn't had a winner in the UK since September 2017, and is on a losing run of well over 200 here.

Though, to be fair, he spends a lot of time in the UAE and has been banging in winners there, so I am joshing a touch.

He could have his work cut out though, as Tahitian Prince is a tricky horse, wears first-time blinkers and has to negotiate stall 11 of 11 here.

When I say tricky, Rossa Ryan got off him after he won at Kempton last season and said he needs to be produced as late as possible, and that is certainly not what happened at Windsor last time.

He traded at 1.271/4 when hitting the front at the furlong pole, towards the unfavoured centre of the track, and his run soon petered out.

Hitchcott's task won't be easy here then, but he is riding a well-handicapped horse and one for whom blinkers could really suit. And he is on a hold-up horse, so the outside draw may actually help him get settled and cover before the (hopefully) late pounce.

Richard Hannon's record when using this headgear initially is better than his all-in strike-rate (25 from 190 in recent years).

I don't have any betting opinion in the 15:00, so you are on your own there. Heredia is the right favourite but she is skinny enough at 5/4.

Double Cherry a reluctant no bet

It is currently good to soft at Haydock but it may be soft again come Saturday afternoon if one forecast is correct - they got 11mm on Wednesday, with plenty more to come it seems in the next 24 hours - and that will be no hardship to Double Cherry.

As with so many ITV races this weekend, I have no real problem with Sea King being favourite, but not at his current price, and I really like Double Cherry.

He went up 9lb for winning a much lesser handicap last time - he won less than 6k there and this is a 100k pot - so hopefully he hasn't ruined his chance, but you had to be impressed by the manner in which the afterburners were turned on close home in winning that 1m4f contest at Goodwood in the soft.

Run-style and pedigree (he is a half-brother to stayers, including Uber Cool, who won over course and distance on heavy ground), strongly suggest the step up to 1m6f will suit and this is a horse having just his fifth start.

Trainer Tom Ward hasn't had a winner for a while, but he has had three horses beaten in photos of late (two by a short-head) so I am not worried on that score.

Double Cherry was my nap of the weekend, each way, when we recorded Racing Only Bettor on Thursday afternoon.

However, the early 12s soon went, followed by the 10s and 9s on Thursday afternoon, and then the 17/2 became 7/1 on Friday morning.

That was simply too low for me - you have to draw the line somewhere - so he is now a reluctant no-bet at his current price. If he drifts back to 9/1 or so (maybe unlikely), he would become a bet again.

I liked Oaks fifth Kawida most in the Lancashire Oaks, as a 3yo who will like the ground and getting 12lb from the older fillies, but I thought the 6s with the Sportsbook was only fair, and I can let the race slide by.

Victory could be a winner at Haydock

I had to do a double-take when I saw Gaassee put in at 6/4 (a touch bigger on the exchange at 2.8) for the 17-runner Old Newton Cup at 15:15.

No. Thank. You.

He may well scoot up, as so many of William Haggas' horses tend to do - just the four-timer for that ever-impressive outfit at Haydock on Thursday - but you can fancy a fair few against him in here, and On To Victory stood out to me at 25/1 each way, five places.

The selection actually finished an eight-length fifth to Gaassee at York last time and obviously lacks the sexy profile of the winner, but he is 10lb better off and should relish this test.

His connections made no bones about the fact that he would need the run at York, but he shaped well in fifth, and the softer ground here is very much in his favour. All his best form over jumps and on the Flat has come with some dig.

He is now 2lb lower than when winning the November Handicap in soft ground at Donny in 2020 and this is a horse who finished a 1 ½-length second to Hukum off levels on soft at Goodwood last May.

He has good course form too, having finished a neck second here in 2020 - he also may have won over hurdles here but for unseating at the last - and he is weighted to run a big race with conditions to suit.

Good luck.