Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs 10/1 Rare Clouds to thrive on heavy

• Well done to Wincanton for getting racing on

• Can Feach Amach seize her big opportunity?

• 10/111.00 bet should relish the heavy ground

---

Paul Nicholls Superboost

Paul has three cracking chances today at Wincanton, with the biggest price of his trio being 7/24.50. So the chances are he'll train at least one winner on the card. In fact, it's a 1/21.50 shot that he trains at least one winner.

Well, forget 1/21.50. Get on the Betfair Sportsbook's Superboost and back Paul Nicholls to train at least one winner at Wincanton today at the boosted price of 1/12.00.

---

On Thursday morning, the main weather site I use told us to expect up to 22mm and 20mm of rain at Sandown and Wincanton respectively, throughout the day into Friday morning, on top of already predominantly heavy ground.

That at least eradicated any doubt that it wouldn't be heavy (and then some) all over, despite a largely dry Friday and Saturday at both tracks. It was just a matter of whether the courses survive their respective inspections.

After getting 34mm, Sandown failed theirs at 8am on Friday morning, and it was with a heavy heart that I then deleted 1,286 words of Esher copy.

I had about an hour or so to wait as to whether the Wincanton words would go the same way - I write my full copy on Thursdays for the weekend action, and then make a fresh assessment of the prices and the reasoning on Friday morning if I hold it back until then - after they recorded 27mm.

The Wincanton statement said: "We are making assessments and working through track 'options' at 9am in good daylight".

With Sandown off and Premierisation meaning Newcastle was the only other UK option - though apparently there was talk of moving the behind-closed-doors Southwell into an earlier afternoon slot - Wincanton would have been looking at every avenue in order to race, and they have come up with a plan.

Well done to them. A dry forecast from here on in will hopefully see them pull it off, with an 8am Saturday morning inspection still planned. Whether or not it is an ideal punting scenario is another matter altogether.

As Johnny Ball may have said, if you are betting, then think of a number - and then halve it.

I don't agree with staking plans, for reasons I won't bore you with, but I genuinely believe that here. It really is small-stakes stuff when the ground is this bad.

Wincanton 13:30 - No bet

The ITV action now begins with the 13:30 - be aware that ITV say the Wincanton races will go off five minutes later than scheduled, and Newcastle's 10 minutes - and it is not a very appealing betting race.

Fast Buck has dropped from 131 to 122 in just four chase starts and he surely has a race in him off this mark. He also has form figures of 221 on heavy too, never being beaten by more than one-and-a-half lengths in that ground.

However, he has come down the weights because he has run very poorly at Sandown on his last two starts, so there is an obvious trade-off there and the price is not quite big enough to compensate (one firm opened up on him at a silly-short 2/13.00).

Wincanton 14:05 - No bet

The 24 entries for the 1m7f50yd handicap hurdle at 14:05 dwindled down to just 10 at the overnight stage, but that still offers the prospect of 1,2,3 each-way betting unless non-runners in the ground intervene.

It really is a bargain basement 0-105 though - it's a bad old race, in truth - and the bookmakers are showing Harry Derham (22 winners this season at a strike rate of 27 percent, with eight of his last 13 runners obliging) the ultimate respect by putting in his Fourofakind as the 11/43.75 favourite.

This is a horse who has been pulled up and beaten 56 lengths in his two starts this season but, perhaps crucially, he wasn't wearing a tongue-tie or cheekpieces on either occasion. They are back on here, as they were for when he won at Haydock last season.

Very sly, if a touch too obvious, Harry. Those runs also saw the horse drop 6lb from 108, which allows him to run in this 0-105.

However, were it not for the fact that Feach Amach has not been seen since November, I would have tipped her at 4s against him.

That absence since mid-November worries me a touch but perhaps unnecessarily so, given she won at Sedgefield off a similar break. Maybe she just needs plenty of time between her races.

An opening mark of 93 certainly seems very workable on the Sedgefield win, but perhaps even more so on the talent she displayed on the Flat in Ireland in 2023.

She was rated 80 after finishing fourth to Warm Heart in testing ground at Leopardstown in May. A 93 hurdles mark against an 80 Flat rating presents a big opportunity.

I just have my reservations about her in, at the risk of repeating myself, what will be very bad ground for a 4yo filly. Even before Thursday's rain, earlier in the week the course was waterlogged in places on the hurdles track.

I may well rue bypassing her in this column - she is the best bet in the race as far I can see, if you want to play - but I am content to stay conservative in the prevailing conditions.

Wincanton 14:40 - No bet

There were 18 in the 2m4f handicap chase at 14:40 and we are down to just seven. And, in truth, I narrowed it down to two quickly enough, the aforementioned Georges Saint and Go Steady.

As the latter is 6s, I really should be siding with him, but the 9/43.25 jolly Georges Saint - bigger on the Betfair Exchange - really does have a lot going for him.

I can see him getting the run of the race from the front here. He is in-form, proven on heavy ground and by far the most solid proposition in here.

But that 12-length Fakenham win was perhaps not as convincing as the winning margin suggests. He did go up 7lb for it and punting at his price in bad ground is simply not for me.

Wincanton 15:15 - Back Rare Clouds

If you had asked me when I started writing this column whether a seven-runner handicap hurdle in what will presumably be borderline-raceable conditions would be responsible for a fresh bet on Saturday, I would have been rather surprised.

But I am willing to take a small-stakes betting chance on Rare Clouds at 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook, or 11.010/1 or bigger on the Exchange, in the 15:15. He is a 10yo against horses with more handicap upside, but he still has plenty going for him.

The 11s in the marketplace was taken on Friday morning.

Quite simply, I want to side with him because he comes here after just getting touched off in a three-way photo at Chepstow last time and this is surely his ground.

He has been largely racing on good going for his current handler but it was soft at Chepstow last time (raised just 1lb for being beaten a short-head and a neck, with 12 lengths back to the fourth) when he took a step forward at 18/119.00 and his best form for his previous trainer Sue Smith came on heavy, albeit back in 2020.

He was beaten two lengths off a mark of 107 (3lb higher than he runs off here) at Sedgefield over 2m4f in heavy ground, and the winner went on to win two of his next five starts.

That he is best suited to deep ground is perhaps not surprising, as the horse is a full brother to the one-time 154-rated Vintage Clouds, Ultima and Peter Marsh winner in the mud, to name just two victories. He is also a half-brother to Vintage Star of Smith's, and he too loved heavy.

I am going to take a chance Rare Clouds will handle these conditions better than most.

And, hopefully, better than all of them. I actually fear the 10/34.33 poke Intimate over the 7/42.75 favourite Individualiste.

Newcastle 13:40 - No bet

Newcastle has been drafted on to the box and it is soft, heavy in places, there, with a bit of rain around on Friday.

It's a predictably low-quality offering, with poor prize money to match, but at least the field sizes are decent.

First up on ITV is a 2m1f 15-runner novices' hurdle at 13:40 and the layers were never going to miss the obvious pair of Two Auld Pals and Carlisle winner Forged Well (and therefore carrying a 7lb penalty), so we can quickly move on.

That said, I'd have been all for the 4s one firm put up about Forged Well on Friday afternoon. Sure, Two Auld Pals should be the favourite but 4/15.00? The Sportsbook are a more realistic 11/43.75.

Ben Pauling is responsible for a real shortie in the shape of his unbeaten Handstands in the 2m4f+ novices' hurdle.

He doesn't appear to have much to beat here under his 7lb penalty, hence he is heavily odds-on at 4/111.36 with the Sportsbook.

Newcastle 14:50 - No bet

The 0-100 2m4f handicap chase at 14:50 is predictably more competitive, though it is probably one of the lowest quality races to appear on ITV, with a ratings range of 98 to 72.

En Meme Temps looks to be just about the most solid in the race, albeit that is not saying much.

He has clearly regressed since his days with Tom Lacey and Philip Kirby, when he was rated in the mid-120s, but his overall profile is the best in here.

Rated just 95 now, you can maybe forgive him a below par run over an extended 2m7f as maybe he didn't see out the trip (he has never raced over further than 2m5f+ before), never getting into it from off the pace. I'd expect him to be ridden more prominently here.

Consistency is hardly his watchword (this is a 0-100, after all) but 2m4f in testing ground are an optimum combination, and a reproduction of his Hexham win in March, or his second there in October, must see him go close here.

You look for the positives in these races and the fact that his small stable had a winner on the Flat here on Thursday is no bad thing.

I was going to suggest a tiny bet at the Sportsbook's [7/1] but do I really want to be getting involved with an inconsistent horse in a 0-100 on deep ground?

No. However, once again, if there is a punt in here to be had, it is probably him. I wouldn't lay anyone that 7s myself.

Newcastle 15:25 - No bet

We are treated to a 0-105 2m4f62yd handicap hurdle at 15:25 to sign off on the Toon but, again, I am not getting involved.

The ultra-obvious one is handicap debutant Yealand, as he wasn't given a hard time at Bangor last time and an opening mark of 96 looks okay, especially as he is a Shirocco half-brother to decent sorts Shanroe Santos and Young Bull, rated 137 and 134 respectively at their peaks.

However, Yealand hasn't been missed at the Sportsbook's 9/43.25, so no dice. Or is it die?

Good luck.

---

Now Read - Paul Nicholls Saturday runners preview: Individualiste can go in again at Wincanton

---

Watch this week's Racing...Only Bettor