Saturday Racing Tips: Estate heads Tony Calvin's trio of tips on the All-Weather

• TC's trio of bets for Saturday's all-weather action

• Yimou fancied in TV opener but no bet for now

• Attwater holds key to 13:50 but Real Estate the pick

• Forest of Dean has profile for success at Lingield

• Bombastic a fantastic chance at Chelmsford

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I'll back Yimou at 5s but no bet for now

I'd put Pinocchio to shame in the hooter stakes if I said I was an all-weather punter - I would rarely, if ever, look at it outside of the bigger meetings - but needs must, so away we go.

The action at Lingfield is actually pretty decent and I thought I would probably, rather unexpectedly, be having a bet in the opening 5f sprint handicap at 13:15 there.

However, I had at least 5/1 in my mind about Yimou when looking at the race on Thursday morning without the prices, so I was decidedly underwhelmed by the opening 10/3.

The case for him is obvious, I suppose, and I was probably being overly-optimistic about the price.

He is in-form, he is well drawn in two to go forward, he has taken well to cheekpieces of late and he has run well on both starts at the track, including when beaten a neck off a 1lb higher mark over 6f here in September (when he was picked up late doors).

If he hits 5s anywhere in the marketplace, I will play, as I can see him getting an uncontested lead here - the badly out-of-form Corinthia Knight, ridden by an inexperienced 7lb claimer, is the main pace rival from trap six - but no bet as it stands.

Estate has a Real chance in 6f handicap

The 0-55 6f handicap at 13:50 looks more trappy but I thought Michael Attwater held a strong hand with Lothian and Real Estate.

The former has not been missed in the market at the Sportsbook's opening 11/4 but Real Estate looks a solid enough poke at 8s.

He may have been disadvantaged by racing on the inner at Chelmsford last time and some of his best efforts have been off much higher marks at this track, and he is already 1lb lower than when getting the race in the stewards room here in July.

He is worth a bet at 9.08/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is also 8/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to back him there.

Unexposed types a danger to my initial selection

I was hoping to get bigger than the opening 3/1 about recent course and distance winner Ummsuquaim in the 1m4f handicap at 14:25, as I thought a 3lb rise for that win was fair enough and the promising 7lb claimer Mohammed Tabti again takes the ride.

But there a few in here that would worry me, most obviously George Boughey's Vision Of Hope, making his handicap debut for a yard that can quickly rattle up sequences with these types once they have made their handicap bow.

Boughey (who still owns the horse) picked her up for just £2k in the summer and, by Mastercraftsman out of a 1m5f winner (who won in headgear and on the all-weather), you don't need to be Inspector Morse (or any other detective of your choice) to see this filly improving significantly for the step up to 1m4f after two runs over 7f and 1m for the stable, the latest of which was in the fog.

I was actually a little surprised to see her open up as big as 11/2 with the Sportsbook and, with a first-time hood on and an opening mark of just 57, everything points to her proving very competitive here. But the 11/2 quickly became 9/2, then 7/2, and my interest faded more than a touch.

Another interesting lightly-raced horse in the race in first-time headgear is 40/1 poke Amerighi.

He showed little last time but he is rated a mere 54 and his three half-brothers were all very smart tools, including the Group 1 winner Thunder Moon. Perhaps this son of Carravagio will prove better over shorter distances than 1m4f, though.

Queen can proves best in Winter Oaks Trial

Tequilamockingbird is a fair price at the Sportsbook's 8/1 (though she opened up at 10s) in the 1m2f fillies' handicap at 15:00 but all roads led me to Queen Of Ipanema in here, bar the most important avenue.

The price.

I was hoping for a little bigger than 15/8, and a touch bigger at 2s on the exchange, given the depth of the race, for all it is only a six-runner affair.

Boughey has wasted no time in rattling up a five-timer from a very lowly opening mark with this well-bred, ex-Godolphin filly - that final qualifying run for a handicap mark at Kempton in September was a bit of eye-catcher in hindsight - and I like the angle of her coming back down to 1m2f again, after winning over 1m4f last time, as she looks a pacey sort.

She has gone from a rating of 52 to 83 in little over a month, and her progress may not have stopped just yet. At £20k in July, she was another very shrewd, bargain purchase for the yard.

Forest of Dean has profile for success

I am happy about the price with Forest Of Dean in the 1m2f Listed race at 15:33 though, and he rates a bet at 6.05/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. He is also 5/1 with the Sportsbook, and currently 6.611/2 on the Exchange.

This could be a tactical six-runner race as I couldn't see any guaranteed front-runner in the field but I like Forest Of Dean's profile.

He has three course and distance efforts that would see him go very close here, including a Group 3 win. He shaped better than the beaten distance suggests when fifth to Missed The Cut here last month.

He finished behind Algiers and stablemate Harrovian there, on his first run since February, but he was anchored out the back in first-time cheekpieces (retained here). Unsurprisingly, he could never get competitive as the temp quickened.

I expect him to be ridden much handier here (he used to be ridden closer to the pace when winning valuable handicaps in 2019, and he was when given a good ride by Rab Havlin, who is on board here, for that Group 3 win as well) and all those good course performances have come in small fields.

Jockey bookings suggest he is the stable second string here behind his higher-rated stablemate Harrovian, but I disagree.

I would also be happy if Havlin, who also rides Real Estate earlier on in the card, set out in front.

Bombastic could outrun his odds

The fare at Chelmsford is obviously of a far lower quality then Lingfield, but I am going to take a chance with Bombastic at 33/1 win-only with the Sportsbook, in the 1m handicap at 14:05.

Recent Wolverhampton winner Vitesse Du Son and Eagle Eyed Freddie (the latter is the likely pace angle in the race from stall one) dominate the betting, with Bombastic's stablemate Nick Vedder third in at 11/2. But I like Bombastic at the price.

Robyn Brisland is a decent operator at this level and this horse has already dropped 14lb in just six starts since joining him from David Evans in August. Hopefully he will be ready to strike now off a mark of 49.

The only time he has raced here before was a 3 ½ length fifth to a certain Highfield Princess of a mark of 68 in December (the triple Group 1 winner was only off 80) and Bombastic is dangerously well treated now.

His best efforts on turf came over 1m, and when forcing the pace, so if William Carson can get him handy from trap eight, just behind Eagle Eyed Freddie, then he could outrun his odds by some margin.

He could be the sort to drift to a big price on the exchange near the off - as well as the dangerous market leaders, Nick Vedder could also be the stable preferred on the day under David Probert - so I wouldn't go any lower than 20s.

Elegant Ellen should go close

I was half-tempted by Ostilio at 33s in the 7f handicap at 14:40 until I clocked he had finished last on all three of his starts here, and I suspect that Roger Varian's recent Wolverhampton winner, the well-related Lord Paramount, could be at least a stone well-in here.

That is why he opened up at 8/11, I guess.

If you are going to have a bet in the 14-runner 0-52 6f handicap at 15:15, then I actually think Elegant Ellen must go very close with a clear run and she is a very fair price at 4/1.

She ran a very solid race when third here last time, she was competitive enough off much higher marks than this when trained in Ireland, and she looks by far the most likely winner to me.

But it's a very low-grade contest and luck in-running will be needed in a maximum field of 14 over 6f, so I can let her go unbacked and untipped.

Good luck.

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