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Kelso, Newbury and Bangor priced up on the Sportsbook for Saturday
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Conditions prime for Nicholls' chaser Matterhorn
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Alan Dudman has four tips for the weekend at 12/113.00, 10/111.00, 7/18.00 and 6/17.00
Weather conditions ahead of Saturday
Kelso were good, good to soft on Tuesday ahead of an excellent card this weekend with rain predicted, although light rain, set for Saturday morning.
Newbury stage three races on ITV4 on Saturday, and Tuesday looked drier with good in places in the description at the time of writing, and we probably will be looking at good to soft for both on the better side - although following Uttoxeter's ground any replication of that would be an unwelcome curveball to most.
One race from Bangor is in the box too and is priced up on the Sportsbook, but rain is forecast there for the Friday.
Kelso usually stage decent racing and more tracks like the Borders' venue are welcome in my view on the cameras rather than some of the wildly unambitious small field novice races from the southern tracks.
The errant and currently wayward Mr Incredible was Mr Naughty last time as he refused to race at Wetherby and is the key horse here purely from a weights point of view as he's off 150 and top weight with the next on 133.
He is 14/115.00 and isn't really a viable punting option at the moment with too many letters in his recent form but he did finish second in last term's Midlands Grand National.
Cadell looks pretty interesting at 7s for Lucinda Russell, and as usual with the Kinross yard, I am like a moth attracted to a flame.
The excuse for a poor run last time was the trip in the Edinburgh National and that was his first run since his stone last effort in the Betfair Esher Novices' Chase Grade 2 in December - and his jumping went to pot.
If he can get back to something like the horse that won at Wetherby earlier in the season, he'd potentially be a runner as that race was on good ground and it could be good suits him best at around 3m to 3m2f. The only factor that worries me at the moment is his jumping, as he wasn't totally fluent at Wetherby in beating two rivals, and his mistake in the Edinburgh National at fence eight put him on the backfoot.
Prince Des Fichaux is actually shorter in the betting and second favourite at 4/15.00, and he's rated just 108 with only one win from 15 runs - although his fourth in the Eider last time puts him into the mix.
Cadell has the most upside as a potentially progressive horse and did win at Kelso as a novice hurdler two years ago.
Back Cadell in the 13:15 at Kelso on Saturday
The Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle over 2m had 16 at the entries stage and with a maximum field of 16 will be one of the more interesting each-way races.
Armed And Fabulous tops the market at 4s for Willie Mullins, but we've seen on countless occasions with Mullins and favourites for Saturday races at this stage of the week that they might not even run, plus she's double entered for the Beeswing on the card and the Listed race. A braver person than me can have a go at second-guessing Mullins' intentions.
As the French say, 'C'est dommage'!
Walkadina for David Pipe could prove to be better than her Ludlow run when beaten by 14/1 outsider Le Yacht in a novice in soft ground.
That was her first run since wind surgery and a break of 63 days, but her win on good ground at Uttoxeter in November makes her more of a bet at 6/17.00, although Timeform did record the ground more good to soft that day.
Her jumping was good, and her trainer David Pipe was impressed with her technique, and he also remarked she was highly thought of in her bumper runs but wasn't seeing her races out. She certainly did with the addition of the tongue tie at Ludlow and she did make the running - so perhaps those positive tactics suit her best.
She tried a Listed race at Newbury and hasn't got too much to find with Rula Bula and I am hoping the better ground is big factor with her.
In her light career to date she already has four odds-on defeats in-running to her name (although she was 4/7 at Ludlow) and her bumper runs at Hereford and Uttoxeter saw her trade at 1.21/5 and 1.330/100 in defeat.
Back Walkadina in the 15:00 at Kelso on Saturday
The 14:05 Novices' Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f from Newbury could well be the biggest field of the day with 24 entries and a max field of 16 and the Sportsbook are going with four places at the time of writing on Tuesday.
Now that the Gary and Josh Moore team are back up-and-running after a very poor season, I am on the lookout for their runners and Old Cowboy is an interesting switcher into handicaps.
He won't mind any "good" in the description for Saturday as bolted up in a novice at Plumpton to get him into this with his new mark of 121 and he claimed the scalp of the Willie Mullins More Koko at Plumpton who was sent off at odds of 1/81.12.
The form might be very misleading but he won by 20 lengths and had competed in a good novice at Ascot over 2m4f behind First Confession and Crest Of Fortune - the latter has since won by five lengths and the Moores would have been struggling for winners at the time.
The yard are 10-41 at 24% at the time of penning his preview and Old Cowboy potentially could be a better horse on good ground as a Blue Bresil offspring, and with the four places, I like him as an each-way bet.
Back Old Cowboy in the 14:05 at Newbury on Saturday E/W
Saint Segal ran a terrific race at Newbury last time for the antepost column when finishing third in the Greatwood Gold Cup - a race where he jumped great from the front only to be denied by Booster Bob - who very much had the boosters on as he came from nowhere for some in-running carnage.
Jane Williams' Newbury specialist is clearly a player once again at a track he goes well at and remains unchanged at 139, which I think is generous judged on that terrific third.
It's not often Imagine for Harry Derham would be so big at 9s, but he looks a horse more with a reputation now rather than any substance but is becoming very well treated off a mark of 139.
Matterhorn, a famous alps mountain but also a chaser for Paul Nicholls is one to take a chance on with the drying ground. Indeed, with winning form on good to firm, we could so a better horse skip around granted good at least.
Harry Cobden is already booked in place so it looks as though Nicholls in banking on the decent weather and off top weight at 145 he also comes into the fresh having last been seen in November running in hot race at Ascot.
Indeed, he's been seen over shorter, but he won't mind going back up in distance.
Rewinding a couple of seasons ago - March 2023 to be precise, Nicholls said after a stylish win over hurdles: "He's still eligible to be a novice until December, so we can have a crack at the Persian War, but now he's won nicely we could perhaps look at one of the better meetings in the spring. On that performance he's as good as any novice we've run around here. He's a super jumper and a lovely horse - I was excited by that."
That victory was at Taunton and last summer breezed through races to bump up his mark from 128 to 147 and hosed up at Stratford.
He's better than your usual summer horse and is down 2lb from his last run at Ascot. His a good jumper and goes from the front too and the 12s makes him an each-way bet with the three places on the Sportsbook, which for a seven-year-old and unexposed over fences looks fair.
Back Matterhorn in the 14:40 at Newbury on Saturday E/W