Saturday Racing Antepost Tips: Eyes on the Lincoln prize with a 20/1 outsider

• Menuisier's Tribal Chief double-entered at Doncaster this weekend

• Baker outsider looks a big runner for the Rosebery

• Alan Dudman previews the start of the Flat season with three antepost tips 

• We are now NRNB on the 2025 Grand National

Doncaster - 14:25: No Bet

Flat fans, our time has come! For those that have disliked pondering the mechanics of the jumping game, Saturday is a real treat with the first day of the turf season at Doncaster and a rattling good card at Kempton both covered on ITV4.

Conditions at Doncaster are for a dry week and rain on Saturday, with the dangling participles of the wide open 2yo Brocklesby to get the ball rolling, and anyone who finds the winner of that, you have led a charmed life. And Bill Turner at least has one entered.

It will be interesting to see what the market makes of Iberian in the Doncaster 14:25 Cammidge Trophy as Charlie Hills has won this race in recent times and he's a trainer that had a pretty dreadful 2024. Iberian is a 5/16.00 shot on the antepost book and while not flowing with winners over the last couple of months, his horses appear in better nick.

Marshman for Karl Burke, who is double-handed at entries stage, is a fairly obvious first stop with race-fitness on his side and almost won the race last year when nailed by Montassib in the closing stages. The French would have a word for that in "braquage".

He can rate unlucky 12 months ago as he was too close to a hot early pace and just got tired in the closing stages in heavy ground hitting 1.251/4 in the run. There wasn't a lot to crab about the performance and he was second in the Hever Sprint at Southwell last month.

The ownership team also have Sophia's Starlight in the race at 40/141.00 and that looks way too big on her fourth in the Wentworth Stakes at the track during the November meeting. Perhaps she will need the rain with established form in heavy.

In short, for fear of sounding drab, the claims of Marshman are rock-solid, but the price isn't the most exciting.

Doncaster - 15:00: Back Witch Hunter E/W @ 8/19.00

I am a follower of Liberty Lane - last year's Cambridgeshire winner from a mark of 105, but so is the Sportsbook with Liberty Lane the 7/42.75 favourite for the 15:00 Doncaster Mile.

He capped off a fine season as also landed the Suffolk Stakes at the Guineas meeting in May. However, he is a horse who certainly wants a bit of juice in the going. His Cambridgeshire win came on soft and he is on something of a revenge mission as he was sent off one of the market leaders for the Lincoln on the card 12 months ago and was down the field.

I quite fancied Witch Hunter in the Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton last time, and it could be a case of watching how he goes in the market as he was a big drifter on the day and couldn't make an impact ridden off the pace.

No doubt stepping up to 1m will suit him better and at 7/18.00 appeals a bit as an each-way bet although he does hold an entry in the Lincoln for which he is 20/121.00, but surely he'll have a better chance in this as he'd be off top weight in the handicap.

He made his return in Group 2 company at Sandown last season and struggled a bit at that top level, and while adaptable with the ground and armed with race-fitness, certainly is up there on ratings and his trainer has won the race twice since 2017 with Kool Kompany and the likeable Chindit.

Doncaster - 15:35: Back Tribal Chief E/W four places @ 20/121.00

The headline act for Saturday is the Lincoln Handicap at 15:35, and with six rated above three-figures at entry stages as a race that should throw up a maximum field of 22 and a chance to play each-way with the four places on offer on the Sportsbook.

On the trends, the younger horses have enjoyed a blissful time in this handicap, with four-year-olds winning every race between 2016 and 2021, and three other runnings in the last ten years going the way of a five-year-old.

There's usually a "Group horse in a handicap" heard in the build up to the race, and if I hear that, I'll be running for cover and diving behind the sofa.

The big Newmarket yards are out too with William Haggas' Goodwinson as a 14/115.00 chance - and Haggas has won it four times.z

We've got one at a price to consider, and while 36 on the list and rated 90, Tribal Chief really appeals as a handicapper for these sorts of races for trainer David Menuisier.

Menuisier is a man I have plenty of time for - I like how he campaigns his horses, offers it straight in terms of post-race analysis, and clearly a good trainer.

Tribal Chief firstly is a strong traveller, and showed a remarkable transformation last term from winning a handicap at Nottingham off 61 to winning three more and ending up with a rating of 90.

Where does his improvement halt?

His win at Yarmouth at the fag-end of the turf season was impressive and fairly bolted away with barely a question asked from a mark of 77, and he subsequently acquitted himself well in a better race at Newmarket.

The mark of 90 poses a new question, but if the rain arrives on Saturday and watering has taken place, he would require a bit of cut in the ground I am sure, but with his style, I can see a fast-run mile suiting him down to the ground. Watered ground maybe.

A few quotes from Menuisier too will help here in terms of what to expect following his win at Kempton last term. He said: "The plan is to give him time to keep on improving. Physically, he's not quite there either, so he'll improve this year and next year as well.

"In time, he'll stay well. Even though he is from the family of Little Big Bear, there's a fair bit of stamina on the dam's side as well. He'll tackle some longer trips, but we're not sure how much further he'll get."

A caveat again applies, as he also holds an entry in the Spring Mile and might be more likely as he's 14th on the list, so I wouldn't put off the bet there in whatever Menuisier decides.

Kempton - 14:40: Back Killybegs Warrior E/W three places @ 25/126.00

The three Kempton races on ITV - the Rosebery, Queen's Prize and Snowdrop are always good races although the former isn't quite the race it used to be.

Kempton's 14:40 looks warm and a bit of a mix with horses fit from the All-Weather and contenders starting out their season.

With three places on the Sportsbook it's a fairly open market as we speak on Tuesday with a 9/25.50 the field market, and I would expect Andrew Balding's Mount Atlas to attract support from the 6s on offer as he can be labelled unexposed, progressive and a good profile. Indeed, his second in the Old Rowley Cup in October from 94 puts him well up there.

This will be his third run in a handicap. Balding also has Teumessias Fox and Lieber Power in as entries.

George Baker, the trainer, won the race last year with Cemhaan from stall six at a big price and beat Killybegs Warrior into second - who was then trained by Charlie Johnston.

It was a terrific run by Killybegs as he was drawn wide and had to do a fair bit of donkey work from that bad position to slot into his favoured front-running tactics and paid the price for those early exertions as he was not beaten far in the end, and I liked the way he fought back when headed and the third was a long way behind.

Now with Baker, he's been on his travels chasing the dollars out in Bahrain, so he is at least fit if the travelling has been taken well.

The horse looks on a terrific mark from 92 considering he was 103 just 12 months ago in the Rosebery, and while he lost his way with Charlie Johnston, it's not a downgrade at all going to Baker.

At 16/117.00 he is well worth a look each-way and hopefully we can get a favourable draw.

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