ITV Races

Alan Dudman's Antepost Tips: Two selections to consider for Lanzarote honours on Saturday

Trainer Fergal O'Brien
Fergal O'Brien has Kamsinas in the Lanzarote Hurdle this weekend

Alan Dudman is on weather watch ahead of this weekend's ITV races, but with the Sportsbook priced up for Saturday, our antepost man previews this weekend with three tips...

  • Kempton's Lanzarote Hurdle Saturday's big race with four places on Sportsbook

  • Kamsinas the number one tip with each-way claims for Hobbs' mare

  • Alan Dudman has three antepost tips for this weekend on the Sportsbook


Weather could play havoc with Warwick, Kempton and Wetherby

Looking ahead to Saturday requires a fair amount of agility although agile thinking means the Veterans' Chase Final scheduled for last weekend at Sandown has been rerouted to Warwick for this Saturday - which obviously brings into play Sam Brown with stronger claims considering his victory in the same race was at Warwick 12 months ago.

You can re-read my Veterans' Final preview here from last week but the prospects are not forbiddingly high considering the course took a major 30mm hit on the rain front and have the prospects of sub-zero readings on the gauge on Tuesday night.

Plus the brook has burst its bank.

Kempton has to battle the prospect of low temperatures too this week with the track soft and heavy at the start of the week - and that looks more promising than the prospects for Wetherby and the possibility of the Towton Novices' Chase on the box - Yorkshire looks in a spot of bother.

Anyhow, we're priced up on the Sportsbook and it's prudent to consider Kempton with the best prospects.


Kempton - 14:10: Back Minella Blueway EW @ 10/111.00

At Kempton the opening ITV race is the 14:10 3m Handicap Chase and a few of the main contenders have held entries/declarations with meetings abandoned with the likes of Hunter Legend 4/15.00 and Roccovango 4/15.00 ready to roll without a party to go to of late, and those two top the betting.

Thirteen are in at the entries stage and we need to show a bit of imagination here as Minella Blueway has an entry in the Classic Chase at Warwick and is a 20/121.00 chance for that, but is shorter at 10s for Kempton, and we have to be thinking that Warwick's chances look slimmer than Kempton.

With three places on the Sportsbook and every chance this race could cut down to eight or nine runners, Minella Blueway stands out as an each-way punt as his trainer Evan Williams must feel confident he has a stayer on his hands. After all, he was entered in the Sussex National at Plumpton on Sunday - another meeting banjaxed by the weather.

Minella Blueway obviously has to improve a lot to even figure here with a rating of just 113 compared to top weights from 144 and 143 but he ran a third to Lowry's Bar over hurdles last season off 121 in soft conditions and Williams has got a well treated horse on his hands over fences - it's just finding the right target. Indeed his Chepstow win over hurdles last season has worked out well too from Welsh National Day and he bolted up in that.

His first try over 3m and fences came last time at Windsor, and that was his best run of the season (and chasing in three attempts) and the trainer said in a stable tour he was hoping fences will be a big help to him.

Lightly-raced he's on a good mark and three miles could be a good starting point here on in for some staying prizes.


Kempton - 15:18: Back Kamsinas E/W with four places @ 12/113.00

Saturday's big handicap and one of Kempton's fiercest is the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle and 33 entries to deal with for a maximum field of 20 for the 2m5f prize.

Dan Skelton, the man for the Saturday handicaps has won the last two renewals with Jay Jay Reilly and West Balboa and is responsible for five of those declarations - including previous winner West Balboa who is a 12/113.00 poke.

The Sportsbook has four places on offer and it could be the sort of race to dutch a couple at prices.

I've mentioned Evan Williams with his Minella Blueway, but it's his other "Minella" that might move on the market this week with Minella Missile a 16/117.00 chance.

The seven-year-old hasn't been seen since winning the Grade 2 Hyde Novices' Hurdle when beating Captain Teague at the Cheltenham November meeting 421 days ago and a first run in a handicap off 138 for a graded winner gives him a chance.

However, running a talented novice from last season into a race of this nature on potentially a bog is something I doubt Williams will want to do considering he eschewed the Challow and the Relkeel last term due to possibility of testing ground.

One contender we've seen this season on two occasions is Kamsinas for Fergal O'Brien and there are quite a few positives in this hurdler's favour for a tilt at a big pot this weekend.

A flat track has been his playground in the past with wins at Kempton (over C&D as a novice), Haydock and Aintree and he stayed well on good ground to win in Liverpool in October off 130 showing his attributes of being strong in a finish over 2m4f.

He, like Minella Missile, has a Grade 2 Novice win to his name and won on Betfair Chase Day in 2023 and ran on the same card when last seen in November in a race behind Steel Ally in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f.

Visibility was nearly non-existent at the end in the gloom as Steel Ally pierced it from the front and wasn't for catching, but Kamsinas stuck on and might have got closer had he not the missed and fluffed the first hurdle in the straight (three from home) with a flat footed jump that cost him momentum.

The one doubt I have is perhaps genuine heavy ground but it was testing at Haydock over a trip that looked slightly on the short side.

He's only up 2lb and he's still in ballpark territory for one of these big handicaps considering his novice form. Knight Of Allen was also in the Haydock race behind Steel Ally last time (third) and is an 8/19.00 chance, so the race hasn't been missed.

A bigger price with the 20/121.00 on Georgi Girl is based on previous course winning form and also soft ground form and is one to monitor this week and makes the cut on Saturday in terms of a bet with the tempting four places.

She won a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle at Warwick in November (her first run of the season) and couldn't have been more emphatic - a win that is sure to open up abundant opportunities.

Crucially, it came over 2m5f and she was ridden not only like a good horse out the back, but also ridden like a stayer and wasn't stopping at the end.

She also looks as though she has the build of a chaser and was only put up 5lb for that win to 129. Yes, she was beaten on her next start from that mark at Cheltenham at the Christmas meeting, I still think she's off a great mark judged on that Warwick performance as she had bundles in hand with the way she travelled.

They used to say the great Jimmy Greaves somehow managed to conceal himself in the penalty area, and maybe I'm wrong against the assessors, but I would have thought she warranted more of a rise.

Last winter she scored twice on soft and one of those was at Sandown by a massive 19L - the other at Kempton.

With her being unexposed at the trip and the Philip Hobbs/Johnson White team very much back amongst the winners with a recent strike-rate in the last two weeks of 39% I think she's a runner.


Now read more tips and previews from Betfair's team of writers here!


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