Northumberland Plate Big Race Verdict: Golden could rule the roost on Saturday

• Newcastle's big race live on ITV this Saturday

• Second from 2023 looks to be a massive player

• Alan Dudman analyses the Northumberland Plate with a 1-2-3 verdict 

Timeform Superboost

East India Dock is a very consistent horse and has now finished inside the top six on his last 10 starts with five wins coming in that sequence, including victory in the ultra competitive Chester Cup last month. 

Today's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is another long-distance competitive handicap in which you can back East India Dock at the super-boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 8/111.73] to finish in the top six once again. To take advantage, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Five places for each-way on the Sportsbook and market movers

It's best to start with the latest prices on the Sportsbook for Saturday's Northumberland Plate - usually one of the best betting races of the month.

Michael Bell's Duke Of Oxford was pretty warm as of Friday morning and he was cut from 9/110.00 into 13/27.50, while Ado McGuinness' Tribal Star was another heating up at the top of the betting market from 12/113.00 into 8/19.00.

Each-way lovers will be licking their lips at the race and the prospect of the five places. Old warhorse Faylaq for Jim Goldie is one of the each-way springers, again as of Friday morning from 22/123.00 into 16/117.00. Charging Thunder also has been cut from 28/129.00 into 18/119.00 for trainer James Owen. But what Owen horse is ever ignored in the market?

Who's Glen is the favourite at 9/25.50.

Northumberland Plate Draw analysis

The recurring motif of Royal Ascot last week was the draw. So draw fans - here we go as Fabrizio Romano sometimes says.

Onesmoothoperator, who defends his crown was drawn in 12 of 20 last year and is housed in seven for Saturday off a top weight 105, and the popular north-eastern stayer recorded the third quickest time in the last 20 renewals across All-Weather and turf 12 months ago.

Calling The Wind, the 2023 winner came from stall 14 of 19, and the previous three victors were again high in 10, 17 and 17. One of those was the hardy Trueshan, whose win back in 2022 from a mega weight was described by one commentator as the "greatest ever Flat win".

Secretariat fans, you were trumped.

Out of the top five in the market, four are drawn high in 19, 14, 12 and 11.

Pace angles - who will make it?

As ever with draws, we have to factor in where the pace comes from as adventure and error go hand-in-hand.

Possible front-runners:

Roaring Legend (10)
Lavender Hill Mob (18)
East India Dock (14)
Imperial Sovereign? (5)
Faylaq (2)
Manxman (20)
Who's Glen (19)
Golden Rules (11)
Tribal Star (6)

Trackers:

Roaring Legend (10)
East India Dock (14)
Faylaq (2)
Intinso (8)
Asgard's Captain (13)
Spirit Mixer (9)
Tribal Star (6)
Alrazeen? (16)

Midfielders:

Onesmoothoperator (7)
Pappano (1)
Manxman (20)
Spirit Mixer (9)

Hold-up merchants:

Onesmoothoperator (7)
Faylaq (last two runs HU) (2)
Duke Of Oxford (12)
Zanndabad (15)
Charging Thunder (4)
Dancing In Paris (3)
Alrazeen? (16)

Key piece of recent form

4 (14)

East India Dock

• J: James Doyle
• T: James Owen
• F:

East India Dock's Chester Cup win off 89 last month is obviously a key piece of form with Who's Glen in fifth on the Roodee but he's been beaten since albeit running a great race for sixth in the Ascot Stakes just 11 days ago. Manxman was 13 lengths behind too.

10 (19)

Who's Glen (Fr)

• J: P. J. McDonald
• T: Andrew Balding
• F:

From Chester, Who's Glen looked very much a potential improver for staying distances and caught the eye, and he could hold the advantage by not racing at the Royal meeting.

15 (11)

Golden Rules

• J: Silvestre De Sousa
• T: Thomas Faulkner
• F:

Golden Rules is by "the crowd pleaser" - sire Golden Horn, and anything by that progenitor stay well, and his fourth in the Queen's Prize off 92 with Who's Glen's second is a good piece of form with the All-Weather in mind. Golden Rules also finished as the runner-up in the Northumberland Place in 2023 from 94 from a midfield position (although he has made the running) and considering he was a bit unlucky in that race, he has to come under consideration.

The only doubt is the "bounce" - as for all his return at Kempton was a great run, it came after a 637-day absence.

5 (1)

Pappano

• J: Jamie Spencer
• T: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
• F:

Pappano for Willie Mullins hasn't got any tangible tokens in terms of form beyond 2m on the Flat and was last seen pulling up in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival with a novicey round of jumping. He's owned by the HOS massive, the same silks for Absurde and Ethical Diamond, so they buy well and might have Australia on their minds with him.

He's a previous John Gosden inmate whose win at Southwell over 1m6f earmarks him down as a potential Ozzie shuttler and he's by Nathaniel so should stay. And as Albert Camus was quoted as saying: "Always go too far, as that's where you will find the truth."

The problem is the price. Mullins tax here comes into play although he was a little drifter on Friday morning from 9/25.50 out to 6/17.00.

The well-handicapped horses

I have no idea if Pappano is well treated from 96 or not. Roaring Legend has winning form over course and distance but he's on a tough enough mark from 103, likewise last year's winner Onesmoothoperator - who is 12lb higher than last term. Duke Of Oxford was third behind Smoothie 12 months ago from 90, and he races from 95 Saturday.

Golden Rules off 90 is a mark he can win from, while Spirit Mixer doesn't look poorly treated from 89, the same mark for finishing second at Goodwood last time. Faylaq is running well enough, but he could be a doubtful stayer and he'd need a personal best from 96.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Northumberland Plate verdict

15 (11)

Golden Rules

• J: Silvestre De Sousa
• T: Thomas Faulkner
• F:

With form in the race and a good mark, I am happy to take the chance on Golden Rules here as from 90 the assessor has thrown him a lifeline. He's drawn well enough too in 11 considering the higher numbers' record and from 8-11, he gets just over a stone from Onesmoothoperator.

As a win bet at 13/27.50 I think that's fair enough.

11 (15)

Zanndabad (Ire)

• J: Jim Crowley
• T: A. J. Martin, Ireland
• F:

Zanndabad was 9s from 11s pre-lunch on Friday, and Tony Martin won the old turf race with Arc Bleu in 2008, and he does know what it takes to win these staying races now considering his exploits with Alphonse Le Grande in fresher times.

Martin is in form at the moment too - with 2-6 at 33% albeit jumpers, and he's 10% for the Flat season with four winners in total.

Zanndabad will stay I am sure as an Aga Khan bred, and his sixth in the Irish Cesarewitch in a field of 30 was from 94 and he met trouble in that. He's 1lb lower here and shaped well on his return over 1m6f in a nice spin and prep at the Curragh last time, and we shouldn't have too much worry about him acting on the All-Weather as his sire Iffraaj is 12% win and 30% place on UK AW tracks.

20 (6)

Tribal Star (Ire)

• J: Jamie Powell
• T: Adrian McGuinness, Ireland
• F:

I'll also throw in Tribal Star as he is from such a low weight and ran a cracker in the Newcastle All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap in April from 88. He couldn't get his favoured lead position and had to come from off the pace - which ultimately led to his downfall as he suffered traffic congestion.

He's only 2lb higher for that and from stall six, we might get a good early position with him under apprentice Jamie Powell who can claim, if he decides to revert to his usual front-running tactics. He also had a nice prep in the Curragh race behind Zanndabad last time.

1) Golden Rules
2) Zanndabad
3) Tribal Star

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