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Four Ascot races on ITV for Saturday priced up on the Sportsbook
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Long Walk tip can make a breakthrough
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Alan Dudman has three antepost selections for this weekend
Will Mullins and Elliott take a crack at Iroko at Ascot?
Ascot's pre-Christmas meeting begins on Friday and that will certainly be a day to assess the ground as of Tuesday "good" was in the description with forecast showers on three days (including Saturday) as we prepare for a quartet on ITV. The Sportsbook have priced up all four already.
Beginning with the 13:50 Howden Graduation Chase over 2m5f, this has the potential to cut up sadly, as most of these novice races over fences tend to, and the Martin Pipe winner Iroko, from the 2023 Festival at Cheltenham is unsurprisingly in as the 7/42.75 favourite.
He was turned over as market leader on his comeback run for the season at the Betfair Chase meeting last month after an interrupted debut fencing campaign last term after suffering a setback following his impressive chase debut. He got to the Turner's, but one had a feeling he didn't really do himself justice, nor at Aintree subsequently.
Iroko was a first festival success for Cheshire duo Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero winning the Martin Pipe and I tend to think that race is one for a proper stayer moving on, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him at one stage this term go over 3m as jumping fences at speed has been quite the test.
At 7/42.75 and top-rated at 152 by some way, the race revolves around him clearly. Willie Mullins has thrown a spanner in the works with James Du Berlais' entry and he's a 4/15.00 shot but hasn't been seen since taking a crunching fall at Punchestown in May.
Fil Dor is entered too for Gordon Elliott, and does have good ground form, but he's also entered at Punchestown on the 27th December and quite often Elliott has double entries for his horses to keep his options open with the changing weather.
And that, in a nutshell presents the problems as two of the first three might not turn up, neither Henry De Bromhead's Jungle Boogie, who also is entered in the King George (massive outsider).
Time for Blueking to announce himself to the staying ranks
For once we can spin on in time order with Saturday's Ascot 14:25 Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle, and the latest race for us and racing fans to try and unearth a candidate for the Stayers' Hurdle come Cheltenham - a fruitless task to date in a division crying out for an up-and-comer.
Strong Leader has emerged as one such contender after his win in the Grade 2 Coral Long Distance Hurdle at the recent Newbury meeting, a success that prompted a cut from 12s into 8/19.00 for Cheltenham's Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle in March.
"He improved throughout the whole of last season and I'd like to think he'll do the same this term. He's as good a staying three-mile hurdler as we've got on this side of the water by the looks of things, and hopefully he can keep progressing," said Murphy, who had identified this and the Cleeve en route perhaps, so he's taking the traditional path.
Indeed, one report said he had to knuckle down to "get the job done" at Newbury, and it wouldn't be racing synopsis without "job done" but he was only doing what the market expected as an odds-on favourite beating the 144-rated Monmiral. The only negative is the fact he has never won right-handed, and while some subscribe to that theory, it's a poser that isn't really on my radar, but it's something to bear in mind.
This Sportsbook market is again another with a case of some jeopardy as both The Wallpark for Gordon Elliott and Hiddenvalley Lake hold entries in Ireland, with the latter over fences too and Henry De Bromhead's Hiddenvalley Lake was put in his place by Strong Leader at Aintree last spring fairly emphatically. Likewise Crambo, who was 46L behind Murphy's stayer at Aintree but did win this race 12 months ago, so it's surprising to see him at 6/17.00. On Aintree, Strong Leader looks a fair price doesn't he?
Crambo's win last year in this race saw him beat old stagers Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher - but there are no brave veterans for this renewal. Ascot Long Walk without Paisley doesn't seem right.
In terms of a bit of each-way thievery, look no further than Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls' Blueking d'Oroux at 8/19.00 with the race having the potential to lose the Irish challenge.
Blueking d'Oroux is very much untapped potential and he's 40/141.00 on the antepost book for the Stayers' at Cheltenham and notably was one of Nicholls' horses to follow for the jumps' season by saying in his exclusive Betfair column:
"He ran very well in the Long Walk Hurdle for a 4YO, in history not too many 4YO's have won the Long Walk.
"We had a little setback with him mid-season and then he ended up running a good race being hugely disadvantaged at the weights at Sandown.
"I think the plan this year is to go in those long distance hurdle races being five and a year older and stronger that should suit him well and I suspect we will start him off, although no plans are set in stone, in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot and then perhaps look at the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.
"There are plenty of options for him but he really is an improving young horse who could have a really good season over hurdles before he goes chasing possibly in a year's time."
He has a good Ascot record too with form figures of 2511 and has a beating of Strong Leader at the track over a shorter distance and crucially with the ground unlikely to be a bog-like on Saturday, he has form and has raced on good three times.
It looked a really nice prep and piece of planning from Nicholls for his comeback run last time at Ascot over 2m4f - and I view running a stayer over a shorter distance first-time up as a positive and at 8/19.00 each-way looks the bet without the pesky double entries.
Back Blueking d'Oroux E/W in the 14:25 Ascot (Saturday)
Last year's winner Victtorino can still be a force from 143
Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch are achieving staying big prize pathos over fences of late as they scooped the December Gold Cup and Peterborough Chase with Gemirande and Djelo, although a Coral Gold Cup victory eluded the pair with Victtorino at Newbury with his third and a performance littered with some sketchy jumps.
It was an odd performance too in the Berkshire staying event as he was given a lot to do, and while often held up, he was a winner of this Ascot race 12 months ago taking a more prominent position, although it was a race that wasn't without its dramas.
Two late fallers at the last in last year's renewal masked Victtorino's six length victory, but what cannot be disputed is the way he travelled in the race. Eldorado Allen made the pace and tried to kick away with a bold move on the second circuit, but Deutsch never panicked and kept his mount on the outside.
He won from 138 and is off 143 for Saturday and he's still in ballpark territory for a win despite a 5lb higher mark. Indeed, with the ground possibly verging on good to soft, it shouldn't inconvenience him as last year was on officially good.
"That was a joy to ride," said an Deutsch post-race last term. "I don't know if he was getting lonely at the last but that's the only one he didn't jump, but I picked him up from the back of it and he was quickly back up to his running speed. He was a lovely ride and there are lots of races for him."
Incidentally, Victtorino's blue and white checkerboard silks are owned by the family of Mars Bars chocolate fame and those of Secretariat, so a win can boost the coffers for any Christmas selection box fans out there. Not a bad family - owning Mars bars and Secretariat.
Trelawne is just behind in the betting at 4s on the Sportsbook, and while Kim Bailey could do with a boost after that news concerning Chianti Classico, Trelawne has a profile suggesting any "good" in the description will be a no-no as his form is on soft and heavy.
'V' is for victory, Victtorino and my own chocolate maker - Villy Vonka. Four successive Saturdays for Venetia with a big pot can hopefully become five.
Back Victtorino in the 15:00 Ascot (Saturday)
No surprises with Be Aware for big hurdles' prize
Blue and white silks are again the topic of conversation with Be Aware's owner Andrew Cohen, whose Suny Bay was just about one of my favourite staying chasers back in the 1990s and as a staying project down the line for chasing, I'd like to think Be Aware is going to go into those ranks for the future.
Now one thing I believe Be Aware wants is a trip, and I can see the Coral Cup as a perfect race for him come March but he remains over 2m for Saturday (if a runner) for a massive pot in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle and his trainer Dan Skelton sees this as another chance to add to his riches in the quest for the trainers' championship.
"This race is always one of the highlights of the Festive period and on our radar from a long way out. It's a very valuable race and could be an important contest in our bid to claim the Trainers' Championship this season. We've been fortunate enough to win it twice before and hopefully we can be lucky again. It looks the ideal spot for Be Aware after his run in the Greatwood and he should have plenty of improvement to come."
Be Aware's second in the Greatwood was eye-catching to say the least - as Burdett Road had the major advantage of making the running and controlling matters, while Be Aware was a mile out the back and flew home, alas not quite getting there.
A rise of 7lb up to 137 is not an issue as I see him as a high 140s horse and with good ground form too from the Greatwood, and indeed his Sandown second in the novices' handicap final last spring, he's perhaps the one hurdler I am looking forward to seeing most for not only Saturday, but for the rest of the season.
Back Be Aware in the 15:35 Ascot (Saturday)