Alan Dudman Antepost Tips: Balmacara dangerous for Cambridgeshire with rain

• Antepost latest on the Sportsbook for Newmarket

• Cheveley Park outsider worth monitoring

• Alan Dudman has a tip for Saturday's big handicap

O'Brien dominates the Royal Lodge entries against Luther

Newmarket's three-day Cambridgeshire meeting gets underway on Thursday to light up the week and with a wet forecast unsurprisingly on the cards, at least we can stick with runners proven on soft, or even more testing. That's the plan amyway.

The Royal Lodge Stakes at 13:50 on Saturday is dominated by Aidan O'Brien in terms of the entries, although the Ballydoyle master hasn't won it since back-to-back successes in 2018 and 2019.

O'Brien had ten of the 18 entries at the start of play on Tuesday morning and Lambourn was a rare runner and winner for the trainer at Craon last time at Listed level, the ground was very soft there so he wouldn't be seeing the impeding doomy forecast as a negative.

Puppet Master improved to win his second start on soft ground at Galway last time and he looks a lovely middle-distance prospect for next term, and another for the soft ground massive.

Delacroix has already dipped in his toes in a Group 2 race, but he, like Acapulco Boy and Aftermath are yet to face soft in their starts so it looks as though O'Brien is basing the Saturday on the ground from his team.

4 (7)

Luther

• J: Kieran Shoemark
• T: Charlie Fellowes
• F:

The betting is dominated by Luther, and he looked a proper horse winning at Haydock earlier this month and quickened up sharply to win by 2L. His trainer Charlie Fellowes must be revelling in training him as he said: "He is a strong, powerful colt with as good a mind as I've trained."

He's probably one with the most talented he has trained - but it was good ground at Haydock and I am not in love with the idea at backing him at 2/13.00 as good as he is, and the Breeders Cup could be on the agenda for him.

Nothing really appeals at this stage in terms of a bet; as the second favourite Wimbledon Hawkeye, while rated 109, has been beaten twice in Group company, granted against Lion In Winter last time, and he's at 11/26.50.

So it's a battle between the superpowers versus Luther - I am sure there's a link from a film there somewhere.

Cheveley Park outsider worth chancing at 12/113.00

The Classic conundrum of the Cheveley Park awaits on Saturday with the Group 1, and so often a winning filly that poses the question will she stay for a Classic the following season?

2 (5)

Babouche

• J: C. T. Keane
• T: G. M. Lyons, Ireland
• F:

Babouche heads the Sportsbook at 13/82.63 and she won the first domestic Irish Group 1 of the year with a performance of some merit at the Curragh in landing the Phoenix Stakes last time - and the time was a good one on the official good ground - although Timeform rated the ground with firm in the description.

Her fifth furlong at the Curragh was an eye-catching 10.87 and she took care of Whistlejacket pretty comfortably with some authority.

Unbeaten in three starts, she's a live Classic candidate for next season and her trainer Ger Lyons won the Cheveley Park in 2011 with Lightening Pearl.

Lyons' verdict was thus: "She is a good horse and we knew that from the start. Horses like this are hard to find. When lads like us find them, we can do it. She will stay over this trip until she tells me. For now the plan is the Cheveley Park and that will be her done for the year. There is no rush to step up in trip."

5 (7)

Lake Victoria (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

Lake Victoria is three from three also and another of some serious juvenile talent from Ballydoyle and indeed Ireland, but if it's heavy or soft on Saturday, she will have to prove herself on testing ground, much like Babouche

Sean Levey rode her on second run at Newmarket and she was most impressive there and subsequently followed up with a Moyglare win at the top level. We need both of those fillies in the race to make it a proper Group 1.

The forecast worries me for the weekend, and it might be worth chancing the each-way 12/113.00 price on the French runner Rayevka.

8 (8)

Rayevka (Ire)

• J: Maxime Guyon
• T: Francis-Henri Graffard, France
• F:

The Aga Khan wouldn't have too many sons or daughters of Blue Point, an emphasis on speed which flies in the face of the owner breeding longer distance horses, but she was a 5L winner at Chantilly in testing ground and quickened up when ridden on the pace in fine style.

The 12s is surely too big if the ground does change and with her proven on soft, it sways me for an each-way bet. Of course, there's more established Group 1 form in the field, but the French runners are often underrated.

Middle Park with O'Brien and Ides Of March progressing

The stellar card at Newmarket on Saturday is a real autumn highlight and the Group 1 is another that gets us thinking for next season's talent - and guess who has the favourite?

In fact, his highness O'Brien has the top two with Whistlejacket (who was beaten by Babouche last time) at Evens and Ides Of March at 3/14.00.

4 (8)

Ides Of March (Ire)

• J: Sean Levey
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

The latter interests me more as his win last time in the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes was seriously impressive. He was most rainbow-heeled there on good ground and one can hope he can emerge as a fully fledged Group 1 sprinter for next season.

He's fast and was the only runner in that Group 3 to clock a sub-11 second sectional at the five marker and he was always in control front rank - indeed, the field were in trouble with 2f to go.

The 2yo is a bold, imposing type in appearance and this race was nominated immediately by O'Brien. However, caution might have to be exercised here as in his starts to date they've all been on ground with no mention of soft in the description.

7 (7)

Shadow Of Light

• J: William Buick
• T: Charlie Appleby
• F:

There is a Godolphin challenger - praise the Lord! Shadow Of Light is a 6/17.00 shot for Charlie Appleby, and while he lost his unbeaten record when finishing second in the Gimcrack at York, he emerged with credit there up in class and the team were not despondent with assistant trainer Alex Merriam saying: "We're happy. It was a big step up and Shadow Of Light has probably learnt a lot and ran his race. He got beat by a better horse on the day. We'll stick at six and he looked quite professional. I said to Charlie the winner looked good for Aomori City, so we'll take that."

I may be repeating myself here but the efficacy on softer conditions has to be questioned, as three starts thus far for the colt have all been on good ground.

It's one for the weather I am afraid, but Ides Of March had an authorial quality about him last time and he's improving.

Cambridgeshire tip at 10/111.00 for Saturday

We didn't have too much luck with the draw for Ayr and the Silver Cup and Gold Cup selections and they were found a little wanting last week, and even those with the most prized savant powers will be tackling the Cambridgeshire Handicap fraught with peril with the numbers and sheer size of the field.

Liberty Lane will be top weight from 105 and is a 14/115.00 chance on the Sportsbook - a reminder five places too antepost.

Karl Burke's 4yo ran in the Cambridgeshire last term on fast ground and was down the field, but the forecast might serve him well with some cut and ran well after a break at the St Leger meeting when second off 105.

We can ignore his effort in this 12 months ago, and it might be worth noting too that the first three home in the race were drawn with high numbers.

26 (25)

Roi De France (Ire)

• J: Oisin Murphy
• T: John & Thady Gosden
• F:

Roi De France at 7/18.00 leads the Sportsbook, but he's just the sort of horse with a high profile that I am trying to wean myself away from but he did travel ahead of his mark last time at Yarmouth when denied and beaten by James Webb.

Roi De France for the Gosdens hit 2.111/10 in-running, but I thought Ryan Moore was superlative in controlling the race from the front on James Webb, and sadly it was a case of Kieran Shoemark being outridden. It happens.

Perotto at 16/117.00 has been transformed by the hood and ran a super race to finish third in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He did act on soft last year in the Victoria Cup, but I suspect he's a little better on decent ground.

Again, with potential soft ground in mind, and I am truly placing my eggs in the basket of the heavens, Balmacara is one that won't mind the rain this week and he's a 10/111.00 shot.

8 (1)

Balmacara

• J: Charles Bishop
• T: Eve Johnson Houghton
• F:

He ran second last time behind the progressive Flying Frontier at Sandown over 1m2f and almost nicked the race from the front with the final furlong proving just a little beyond him. The ground was officially good on that occasion, which could have been a little too quick.

I like his style from the front and the way he won at Doncaster in a novice earlier in the season in soft ground highlighted him as a rain cormorant - he absolutely devoured the mud.

His jockey that day was impressed with the 4L win, with Charlie Bishop saying: "We came here today to find out whether we've got a handicapper or a Group horse. That's for the trainer to decide now. But I imagine she's going to look for something flashier - Balmacara could do a bit of damage on soft ground in a Group race."

Glowing words indeed Charles.

His run against Persica put to bed any fears in terms of the trip too, and that run looks better now with Persica since winning a Listed race at Ayr.

We're going with the ground here and I am playing at 10/111.00. He's unexposed from 102 and the drop a furlong from his run last time is a plus.

Now read more tips from Betfair's team of writers here!