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Saturday 26 September, 15:40
Live on ITV Racing
Favourite Gavriel handed stall 28 of 28
The Gosdens (well John mostly) have a record five Cambridgeshire Handicaps in the bag already and the market indicates number six could be next.
Gavriel, owned by the Campbells Soup man George Strawbridge looked ahead of his mark at Ascot to win in exciting fashion and the "Group horse in a handicap" line was being well prepared and brushed off in anticipation.
He beat Balzac in a bit of a canter that day and Balzac since has come out to score again. Gavriel off a mark of 99 obviously has any amount of improvement in handicaps to come, but 4/15.00 in a field of 28 is a tough ask.
Market movers on the Sportsbook
Last year's runner-up Indalo was a solid second favourite as of Friday morning, and had been cut from 8/19.00 into 13/27.50.
The big move into single figures, though, came in the shape of Erzindjan from 12/113.00 into 7/18.00 for Billy Loughnane and TJ Kent.
Erzindjan is an eight-year-old and the yard haven't had a winner in two weeks, so I am somewhat surprised.
Spanish Voice for Andrew Balding was cut into 16/117.00 from 40s and a similar move came in the shape of Principality from 40/141.00 into 16/117.00, although Principality's trainer Harry Eustace is on the cold list and hasn't had a winner from his last 17 runners.
Impact of the draw
Chasing the draw at Newmarket this season and indeed some of the big meetings has been a nightmare. Far side one day, near side the next, down the centre next week. You get the drift.
Newmarket at the best times with fields racing in fissiparous fashion is a horror show, and with 28 runners, the contest again is a duel between us and the stands or far side. Or indeed middle.
Gavriel's position in 28 on past editions of the race is not a bad position by any means as 19 from the last 24 winners have been housed in double figures, with the list of winners and draw here:
- 2025: Boiling Point (6)
- 2024: Liberty Lane (4)
- 2023: Astro King (35)
- 2022: Majestic (26)
- 2021: Bedouin's Story (21)
- 2020: Majestic dawn (25)
- 2019: Lord North (29)
- 2018: Wissahickon (21)
- 2017: Dolphin Vista (29)
- 2016: Spark Plug (28)
- 2015: Third Time Lucky (7)
- 2014: Bronze Angel (11)
Pace map with tactics and draw
FRONT RUNNERS: Spell Master (3), Salam Dubawi (4).
PROMINENT RACERS: Parole d'Oro (23), Thunder Run (16), Shafdar (5), Spell Master (3), Thunder Run (16), Alcarath (1), Harmonics (18), Urban Lion (22), Crest Of Fire (7), Pierre Royal (9).
MID-DIVISION: Hand Of God (24), Indalo (26), Hard Endeavor (5), Pathein (15), Bourbon Blues (13), Wanderlust (14), Principality (20).
HOLD-UP: Erzindjan (25), Pathein (15), Wild Thoughts (19), Hard Endeavor (5), Bourbon Blues (13), Asmen Warrior (21), Spanish Voice (11), Gavriel (28), St Anton (17), Zennor Storm (6), Altareq (10), First Ambition (27), Principality (20).
Each-way contenders
St Anton at 25/126.00 holds all of his best form on good or quicker so the effort at York on good to soft last time is readily excused.
He scored at HQ earlier in the season off 91, his third success of the season and was strong at the end of the mile, so the extra furlong could help.
A draw in 17 is right in the middle however.
Salam Dubawi could be a bit of flyer as from the pace map, and if he repeats his tactics from Hamilton when making the running earlier in the season, he could go forward from his stands' side draw and might not have much company.
He is a 50/151.00 shot and Olivia Tubb claiming 5lb wouldn't be an angle as a "go to" for big handicaps for such an inexperienced rider, but if she gets him out early, he might outrun his odds.
His success at Hamilton was over 1m1f and he hacked up by 3L. His latest run at Ayr in ground that resembled the Everglades took its toll in terms of his finishing effort, but he was tanking into the contention at one stage.
Back Salam Dubawi, E/W 6 Places, in 15:40 Newmarket
Trainer form
- John and Thady Gosden: 5-29 at 17% last two weeks and 5-23 at 22% at Nemwakret this term
- Karl Burke: 11-65 at 17% last two weeks and 2-13 at 15% Newmmarket this term
- Harry Charlton: 3-13 at 23% last two weeks
- Roger Varian: 4-20 at 20% last two weeks and 19-180 over five seasons Newmarket at 11%
- Andrew Balding: 16-85 at 19% last two weeks and 8-41 at 20% this terms at Newmarket
- Brian Meehan: 2-11 at 18% last two weeks
- Ed Dunlop: 2-29 at 7% last two weeks
- William Haggas: 14-62 at 23% last two weeks and 5-27 at 18% this term at Newmarket
- Richard Spencer: 3-27 at 11% last two weeks
- Michael Bell: 1-15 at 7% last two weeks
- Harry Eustace: 0-14 last two weeks
- Oli Rix: 1-6 at 17% last two weeks
- Adrian McGuinness: 0-34 at 0% last two weeks
- Ian Williams: 4-35 at 11% last two weeks
- Richard Hannon: 4-56 at 7% last two weeks
- Jack Channon: 2-24 at 8% last two weeks
- Alan King: 1-7 at 14% last two weeks
- James Owen: 5-56 at 9% last two weeks
- Jane Chappple-Hyam: 5-15 at 33% last two weeks
- Jim Goldie: 5-52 at 10% last two weeks
The main plays on the Sportsbook
For a place, I have to seriously consider Hand Of God whose second in the John Smith's Cup behind the very smart Raammee gives him a big chance.
A draw near Gavriel high could also help and he's the sort of horse that needs a pace to run at with the way he travels.
He was a little unlucky too at York behind Raammee as he was messed about a little on the inside and that run was a carbon copy of his Newbury win in May when he was travelling well on the inside and had to wait for room.
He's an extravagant moving horse and after a poor effort at Deauville last time, can get back on track on his favoured good and good to firm ground.
Alan Dudman's 1-2-3-4 Verdict
I don't want to ditch my antepost pick Pathein and at 12/113.00 on the Sportsbook, he has held up well over the course of the week.
He travels well, unexposed, and didn't get the best ride ever last time.
Hand Of God will have his conditions, and while predicting the draw can be a pointless task at Newmarket, at least the stats point strongly to a high draw.
Salam Dubawi on the other side in stall 4 could get the easy lead in that group and he's a big price to warrant an each-way interest with the six places.
Indalo was close to making the list as last year's runner-up but he's pretty high in the weights now from 104, and I like Spanish Voice with his smooth travelling style. Although the 40s has long gone.
1) Pathein
2) Hand Of God
3) Spanish Voice
4) Salam Dubawi
Back Pathein, E/W 6 Places, in 15:40 Newmaket