Mill Reef Big Race Verdict: Dods' youngster has too much staying power for Newbury rivals

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Saturday 19 September, 14:12
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No O'Brien runner for Newbury feature

A Saturday juvenile race without an Aidan O'Brien youngster should in theory make this easier for not only tipping purposes, but also riders' plans with no tactical anarchy on hooves.

Aside, with the proximity of the Irish Champions weekend, in recent times O'Brien's name is a glaring omission from the honours' list.

The forecast for rain at Newbury on Friday could play a little part, but it was good to firm on Thursday night and eight are set to take their chance.

How good is Arapaho Gold?

In answer to the headline, the market has Arapaho Gold at 6/52.20 so he's good. Up to Mill Reef standard? Almost certainly.

On the Timeform Top Two-Year-Old scale, he comes in at 109p, tucked in behind Darkness Falls, Desert Castle, Senorita Bonita and Musical Times. However, they've all got to go some to catch the leading juvenile Sun Goddess, with an outrageous 120.

His work on the track has been exemplary. Unbeaten in four, he was a fine winner of the Gimcrack and at York it was his first taste of good to soft.

There was a brief moment when he was shaken up, but with cover to negate slight keen-going ways, he displayed his turn of foot at the end and recorded a 12.06 second sectional. The Convivial Maiden for juveniles later on the day saw the winner clock 12.91 at the end, albeit over 7f, while the closing fastest sectional in the Nunthorpe was at 12.36 seconds.

Perhaps a red herring there as Baccio, who won, ran at paint-stripping speed in the early part.

Armed with that data from York, we know he can finish well. That again was the case winning at Newbury prior, as on quicker going he ducked under 12.00 seconds and for good measure was almost taken out early in the race.

Balding out to land a second Mill Reef

8 (8)

Jolivette

• J: C. T. Keane
• T: Andrew Balding
• F: 1953

• SBK 15/8
• EXC 3.2

Second favourite on the Betfair Sportsbook is Jolivette at 15/82.88, a filly who gets the weight with the 6lb sex swing and she also can match the favourite with her experience.

In four runs a win on debut at Newmarket is all she has to show for her efforts. That form does not look strong with a George Margarson horse in third and is now rated 75. The second Topaz however has gained a win at Salisbury in a Novice.

She's been well beaten in the Albany and Duchess Of Cambridge too but saved her profile with a come-from-behind third in the Lowther. Perhaps she enjoyed the easier surface a little more, but I don't have her rise down as intergalactic. Not at 15/82.88 anyway.

Andrew Balding won this race in 2022 with Array but I prefer the finishing power of the Dods' colt.

Is there an each-way bet?

With eight runners, while not quite a brilliantly lit punting emporium, it's better than seven runners playing for the measly two places and Nabati at 9/25.50 could be the outsider, but not an outsider price enough.

Adaay Of Scarlett is exposed and on some sort of quest to break the record for most juvenile runs in the season (currently at eight) and his second in the Group 2 Coventry against Great Barrier Reef on the opposite side of the track doesn't make him an 11/112.00 shot.

His subsequent seconds in the Bahrain at Newmarket and Richmond at Goodwood is testament to his soundness and toughness.

2 (6)

Adaay Of Scarlett (Ire)

• J: Rossa Ryan
• T: Hugo Palmer
• F: 11222257

• SBK 11/1
• EXC 15

I thought he was pretty unlucky at Goodwood chasing a very strong pace and when he floated into contention on the outside it looked "game on". However, Ryan Moore was at his best and picked the pocket in true Raffles style. In the finish it was quite something to see how small Adaay Of Scarlett looked.

His last two runs need reversing but the 11/112.00 price on early season form, and Goodwood looks big.

Hugo Palmer, the biscuit baron, is a little quiet in terms of stable form and going into Friday was at just 7%.

Nabati tried 7f last time and is back to 6f and is proven on good and good to firm, and the surface could be key to the chances of Matteo - who ran a poor race on soft at York in Arapaho Gold's Gimcrack, and Matteo just went backwards.

He'll be happier judged on his first two wins on good to firm with a sounder surface on Saturday, but if we're going back to past form on quick going, Matteo has a win at Beverley against Adaay Of Scarlett's Ascot and Goodwood form.

Mill Reef Verdict

1 (2)

Arapaho Gold (Ire)

• J: Connor Beasley
• T: Michael Dods
• F: 1111

• SBK 6/5
• EXC 2.22

Jolivette looks a poor price, and against 6/52.20 on Arapaho Gold, you could argue his place in the market would be understandable at 4/51.80.

Dods talking about the apple of his eye said: "The likes of Dakota Gold, Commanche Falls, Mabs Cross and Mecca's Angel were slow burners who hit the heights at three and upwards, so as a juvenile he's probably the best.

"Northern Ticker was a good two-year-old and years ago we had Dubawi Gold, but he wouldn't be in the same class as this horse."

Backing him at 6/52.20 while unoriginal might be boosted here with the option of either playing a forecast, which is not really my thing, or the three places with Adaay Of Scarlett.

This race looks less daunting for Arapaho Gold's owners, one a pork pie magnate (words I have never typed in my life), than the speech to give for winning the Gimcrack.

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