New Year's Day Racing Tips: Two bets at 40/1 and 15/2 for Tony Calvin to start 2023

• Trip and ground set to suit 40/1 tip at Cheltenham

• Lots in favour for 15/2 Musselburgh tip

• Tony Calvin has two bets for New Year's Day

Hoping 40/1 Jacamar can fly home at Cheltenham

I'll skip right by ITV's opener at Cheltenham - the penny will finally drop with broadcasters as regards these small-field novices' chases, with recordings shown and bigger-field handicaps put in their place live on ITV - and go directly to my sole bet of the meeting.

And it's a fair old swing, too.

Back Jacamar at 40/1 each way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook in the 2m4f handicap chase at 13:55.

I rather showed my hand early when tipping him at 66s on the Racing Only Bettor podcast on Friday afternoon - a schoolboy error perhaps, but you can't hold back fancies - but 40s is fine by me with the extra place.

Mind you, I ill probably top up win-only on the exchange at 60+ as he has the profile that the bigger players will be happy to oppose nearer the off. In fact, there is no probably about it, as I will.

You can obviously make a case for all of these at their respective prices - and I wasn't surprised to see the Sportsbook's opening 14/1 about Fantastic Lady being swiftly accommodated early on Friday, though she is currently that price win-only on the exchange - but Jacamar stood out for me.

Okay, he has run poorly on his three starts this season and his jumping is always a cause for concern in these big handicaps, but even the revised 40s is too big for me.

He has at least been dropped 7lb for those three runs this season (all over further than this) and he is on a mark of just 132, 3lb lower than when just touched off by a neck at Sandown last term and just above his last winning marks at Leicester (131, where he won by 5 ½ lengths) and Kempton (130, where he won ¾ length).

And hopefully the first-time visor (Milton Harris is 3 from 16 with this option) is the key to sharpening up his jumping and him coming back to form.

It could be worth noting that initial cheekpieces did the trick when he won at Kempton on Boxing Day in 2021 and he actually ran remarkably well when fifth here in a valuable handicap chase last January considering his jumping was far from fluent. He nearly took the last fence home with him and still was beaten just over 9 lengths.

There is plenty of pace in here to suit his creeping style and he is ground-versatile, so the further rain that is set to fall on Saturday (up to 13mm perhaps, but less on other sites, so I am working on the basis of good to soft), and maybe the slightly shorter trip will suit him, too.

This certainly looks more his bag than the 2m5f-2m7f+ he has run over in this campaign.

Tempted by Bridge in the 3m Handicap Hurdle

The Relkeel at 14:30 looks an incredibly tight race to call but perhaps Dashel Drasher is still being ignored in the market a touch at around 9s on the exchange (the opening 10/1 with the Sportsbook was taken).

He will have plenty of company for the lead here but he is a course winner, he has run two crackers at Aintree this season, most recently over fences in the Many Clouds, and he is actually the best horse in at the weights alongside the similarly unpenalised Brewin'upastorm.

However, I can sit this one out.

That is also the case in the 3m handicap hurdle at 15:05, though I was nearly dragged in by Bridge North at double-figure odds.

He ran an absolute stinker when heavily punted at Sandown last time, after which the trainer's representative said he was unsuited by the soft ground.

A curious thing to say perhaps about a dual soft ground winner, though Sandown is a law unto itself when that hurdles track gets rain. I can forgive any horse a shocker in that bog.

The other doubt about him is whether he actually wants 3m, as his form at the trip is a touch underwhelming, though all his relatives are stayers (four are 3m winners) and I suppose his Grade 1 fifth at Aintree wasn't too bad.

I do think he is a fair bit better than his current mark (though he is 1lb out of the weights here) but I can just about resist a bet given the form and trip doubts. His trainer is having an excellent season though, and I do have half a sneaky feel for him here.

Age no barrier for well-handicapped Reve

The trip would also worry for me for Gold Des Bois in the 2m4f+ handicap chase at 13:35 at Musselburgh, but I am happy to stick up the 11yo Voix Du Reve at 15/2 each-way with the Sportsbook in the 1m7f124yd handicap hurdle at 14:45.

I was very surprised when he was put in as big as 14s and 12s in a few places on Friday afternoon, and I must admit to having a small nibble at those prices. But I had him down as a 7s chance, as I said on the podcast, so the current price is acceptable, though I must admit that I was annoyed when he was clipped in from 9s early on Saturday morning.

If you can get bigger, do so.

Yes, he is an oldie, against sexier 5 and 6yos with more scope for improvement, but the claims for him are actually quite compelling.

He is 12lb lower than when beaten a neck in this race in 2021, he has also run very well on his other two visits here, and he comes here after a 27-length fourth in the Fighting Fifth and a second to Dashel Drasher at Aintree.

Both of those efforts entitle him to mark in excess of his current level of 133 and the handicapper has been lenient with him.

Take advantage of this positive age discrimination.

Good luck.