New Year's Day Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's 13/2 bet can keep rivals at Bay

• ITV Racing from Cheltenham and Musselburgh on NYD

• Small fields means a quiet punting day for Tony

• Our man has a 13/27.50 tip in the Handicap Hurdle

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The biggest five-day field of the seven ITV races on New Year's Day was just 15 - the smallest was eight - so you can argue that the contests have actually held up reasonably well (if one was of a generous disposition) at the overnight stage.

It could have been worse anyway, while readily admitting small fields don't really do it for anybody, apart from connections of those gifted easy prize money.

Not a Premier race day for punters.

As a result, it is a very quiet tipping day for me, and I make no apologies for that.

The going at Cheltenham is currently soft but there is possibly 13mm due later on Saturday, and a further 11mm combined Sunday and Monday, so we are looking at heavy.

Musselburgh is soft, good to soft in places, but, after perhaps 4mm throughout Saturday, the forecast for the next 48 hours is currently dry.

For what it is worth, all five ITV races at Cheltenham were priced up ante-post by the Sportsbook, but I doubt there was much action at all on that front with running plans for plenty up in the air.

Cheltenham - 12:55: No Bet

The 2m62yd novices' handicap chase at 12:55 kicks off the terrestrial action at Cheltenham, and I thought it was exceptionally tricky, for all we have just five runners.

In fact, I fancied four of the five (Full Of Light, the small matter of 43lb out of the handicap, is running for the fifth place prize money of £757.50, and more if any of the others fail to finish) to some degree.

You'd like to know exactly what connections have in store for Petite Tonnerre, and whether today is the day - a horrible phrase, but that is the reality with so many trainers and owners who have big pots and Festivals in mind - as he looked very much like a handicap project when fourth in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown last time.

He may need further in time but a mark of just 138 looks eminently exploitable. However, this could be a hot little race.

Libberty Hunter never came off the bridle when winning at Wincanton and, while this is a much classier race, the handicapper may just have underestimated him with a 10lb rise.

Fine Casting made a fair return at Ffos Las and his guaranteed stamina over further could come in handy here, and the handicapper could maybe have hit Matata, the probable front-runner here, harder than he did for his easy return victory. The latter is the Sportsbook's early 13/82.63 favourite.

I couldn't see a bet at the prices.

Cheltenham - 13:30: No Bet

The 3m1f56yd handicap chase at 13:30 - which has cut up from 13 to five runners at the overnight stage - also gives Petite Tonnerre's trainer, Jonjo O'Neill, an excellent opportunity of another winner as his Inch House is one seriously progressive horse. He is the current 13/82.63 favourite.

On the face of it, going up 17lb for two successes of combined winning distances of 6 lengths would appear harsh, but he never came off the bridle in those brace of Newbury successes.

The one possible issue for him is that the ground is going to be as deep as he has ever experienced, and unknowns are not welcomed when you are playing at short prices.

The UK handicapper is not being very generous to Stumptown, who comes here after being pulled up in the Coral Gold Cup last time, as he has been very slow to drop him, but I respect everything Gavin Cromwell sends over.

He is 7 from 30 in the UK this season, with another winner at Doncaster on Friday, and it worth remembering that he went off at 9/110.00 at Newbury and he has definite chances on his Kim Muir second here in March. The first-time blinkers are on.

The old boy Cloudy Glen looks set for an easy-ish lead, and ran well in the Coral Gold Cup, but this is another race where it is hard to argue with the prices.

I'd lean slightly towards Stumptown, for all he has shown very little in three starts this term and, as such, I'd probably be wanting more than his current odds of 7/24.50.

"Rick Wallers", as my podcast colleague Dan Barber would say, are much less likely with just a handful of runners for the odds-compilers to assess.

Cheltenham - 14:05: No Bet

We only had eight in the 100k 2m4f12yd handicap chase at 14:05 at the five-day stage but it has held up well in the overall context of the day.

That said, I bet everyone was rather happy that Wednesday's impressive Leopardstown winner Meetingofthewaters didn't turn up here under a 5lb penalty, though. Cromwell's Railway Hurricane was the other absentee.

To varying degrees, all six of these like to make the running or race prominently, so it could be a case of the cutest ride will prevail.

Or maybe the horse that handles the likely heavy ground best will oblige, and that rules out Torn And Frayed in my book. And he is 6lb out of the handicap, anyway. And Frero Banbou (wouldn't it be just like him to pop up here?) and Shakem Up'Arry are also 4lb and 1lb out of the weights respectively.

It would be great if Stage Star could win this off 166 (particularly as there was talk about him going straight to that thing in March) but he has never raced on officially heavy ground (an assessment that Timeform agree with) and giving lumps of weights all round in deteriorating conditions could be a fair old ask.

Perhaps far more so than his opening price of 4/51.80 with the Sportsbook would suggest.

In particular, giving 16lb to the progressive Richmond Lake could be beyond him, though you'd have to be worried about how much the Aintree win in near-unraceable conditions has taken out of Donald McCain's horse.

Very worried, and that alone makes me shy away from the 4s poke.

Cheltenham - 15:15: No Bet

The class action of the day is the Grade 2 Relkeel at 15:15 and this was always likely to cut up, with Willie Mullins having four in here at the five-day stage and others with alternative options. Just four of the 12 remain in the race.

Henry de Bromhead sends over Bob Olinger though, and it was good to see him back with a battling win in the Lismullen Hurdle on his return, though he picked up a 6lb penalty for that success.

Brewinup'astorm also carries a 6lb burden for his National Spirit win in February, so I find him hard to fancy, and his stablemate, the unpenalised Strong Leader, would have made more appeal but for doubts about him in the ground.

The main question punters probably have to answer here though is whether they think Marie's Rock will bounce back from an underwhelming return at Newbury and she too, also, has a 6lb penalty to carry.

She'd arguably take all the beating on her win in this race last year (I am still unconvinced by Bob Olinger) but she did run pretty flat at Newbury and 5/42.25 is no particular gift.

Another no-bet race, sorry. It is not easy to call the tactics in the race either, with no habitual front-runner.

Cheltenham - 14:40: Back Springwell Bay

O'Neill's Springwell Bay had the option of running in the Relkeel but they have decided it is sensible to take advantage of a mark of 143 while it lasts in the 3m handicap hurdle at 14:40.

In theory, this should be the best betting race at Cheltenham, with 10 runners, but is that the reality?

The form of Springwell Bay's 2m5f win in November hasn't worked out at all and he is 6lb higher here, as well as having his stamina to prove. Furthermore, should a first-time tongue-tie for him bother you?

But he did win very easily there and they clearly think he is a lot better than his revised mark, as well as believing three miles will suit.

Indeed, O'Neill said after that November success that it was his "dream" to get him in the Stayers' Hurdle. I think Jonjo is a tee-totaller, so it wasn't the drink talking, and Crambo was rated only 142 when winning the Long Walk, let us not forget.

I fully intended to write that the market is always likely to over-react to talk like that but then the Sportsbook opened him up as the 13/27.50 third favourite behind Ed Keeper and Butch. They are clearly mindful of some of the potential negatives I mentioned above.

More of that price in a moment but it wouldn't surprise me if we got non-runners if the forecast rain arrives, as some of these would prefer better ground. So keep an eye out for three no-shows that would change the each-way terms.

The obvious alternative to Springwell Bay is 3/14.00 poke Ed Keeper, who presumably Sam Twiston-Davies much preferred to his old man's The Newest One.

He won as he pleased in what was a fair race at Newbury, and I suspect this lightly-raced sort will be very competitive here off a 9lb higher mark. He is the most likely winner perhaps.

I was going to give a chance to the horse that Sam Twiston Davies declined to ride for Papa, The Newest One, but it looks like his first preference is at Southwell on New Year's Day. So there's your first likely non-runner in this 10-strong heat (as well as a small Rule 4).

However, just in case he does run here (Southwell is not a certainty to go ahead), below is the case for him.

A half-brother to the stable star The New One, this one-time chaser has returned in the form of his life over hurdles this season, finishing second here in November and then posting a very impressive novice hurdle win at Chepstow last time.

The handicapper raised him only 2lb for that runaway win on heavy, and I reckon a mark of 128 gives him better claims than his price suggests. But he won't run if Southwell is on.

A re-think was necessary then.

The 13/27.50 Springwell Bay did give me plenty of food for thought and, after much deliberating, I decided he is going to be my only small-stakes play on the day as it stands, even with the doubts.

Timeform called it heavy ground when he won here in November, and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest he can walk the walk, as his trainer talks the talk.

But it really is only a small bet. It wouldn't actually surprise me if he was pulled out on the day if it got really heavy, and the trainer didn't want to risk him on that surface on his first attempt at 3m.

Musselburgh 13:10 & 14:20: No Bets

Up at Musselburgh, the seven-runner 2m3f171yd handicap hurdle at 13:10 kicks off the ITV action, followed by the 2m4f68yd handicap chase at 14:20.

I don't have any prices for those at the moment, so I can hardly have an opinion, so I may return with an update on those races tomorrow or on New Year's Day once the markets have appeared and stabilised.

Good luck.

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