Easter Monday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's 20/1 bet on the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

• Tony has four bets on Easter Monday at Fairyhouse & Kempton

• Irish Grand National heads the betting at 20/1

• Two to back at Kempton in the 16:05

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I will spare the person's blushes, but I nearly spat out my Saturday afternoon gin when hearing one TV pundit declare that "Thedevilscoachman has a Racing Post rating of 175, compared to his mark on Monday of 147, so he must still have a little bit in hand."

Just the 28lb in hand in the Irish Grand National, eh?

You will rarely hear such nonsense - for the record, the horse's top RP rating is 152 over fences, and 160 over hurdles, and the person in question was quoting the adjusted figure.

But, Thedevilscoachman appears to have as good a chance as any in the Irish National at Fairyhouse at 17:00 on Monday, and he just about heads the betting on the Exchange.

Turn to Royale Pagaille in the Irish National

I am hardly going in guns blazing in the race from a punting perspective, especially as the horse is obviously vulnerable to the various, less-exposed, longer-term plots of the home contingent, but I am going to throw a few quid at Royale Pagaille.

The ground on the chase course is currently soft, yielding in places, at Fairyhouse, with a little more rain to come on Sunday and Monday it seems (maybe around 6mm but who knows?), and that will suit the class horse of the race.

The race time he ran in a handicap he won off a mark of 163 in the Peter Marsh in January 2022 and he has plied his trade in the highest grade since. Well ever since his subsequent good second in the Grade 2 Denman Chase, anyway.

This season he has finished second in a King George after an interrupted prep and you can mark up his 24-length sixth in the Gold Cup a touch as he got hampered when Ahoy Senor came down.

He can race off 160 here, his lowest mark since winning the 2021 Peter Marsh on the bridle off 156, and I am hoping class will out here, and more rain arrives for him.

Back him at 20/1 each way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Lunar Power stepping up is exciting

ITV are also showing four other races on the card, and some cracking ones there are too.

Bloody Destiny goes on a retrieval mission in the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at 14:40 after having the time bandits in tears with a pretty dismal effort in the Triumph Hurdle, and he does so with an initial hood and a tongue-tie applied for the first time since he won in France. He tops the betting at 11/8.

I couldn't see a bet in the race though, and the same applies to the other small-field Grade 2 heats at 15:50 and 16:20, so it's back to the handicap action at 15:15.

We haven't seen Lunar Power for a while, but he was a head second off a mark of 88 in a 2m Dundalk handicap on the Flat in November when we did, and he looks fairly treated off 130 here on his return to hurdles.

Given his 2m Flat form, I like angle of him stepping up to 2m5f+ for the first time (he has never raced beyond 2m1f in both codes) , even if he has the pedigree of a miler.

He has run well on all three outings here, including when fourth in the Grade 2 Juvenile hurdle on this card last season, though the obvious problem is the ground, as I suspect Noel Meade (in fair form, with four recent winners going into Sunday) may pull him out if it gets too testing.

The hurdles course is a touch better than the chase track at the moment though, being described as yielding to soft in places.

But, as it stands, I think he is a worth a small bet at 11.010/1 or bigger. I think you will comfortable get that price on the Exchange, but 10s is the lowest I would go.

Family ties over at Kempton

My 21-month old grandson Rome is threatening to make his first racecourse appearance at Kempton on Monday, so I have had a good look at the card for him, just in case.

I won't be having a bet in the 3yo conditions races at 14:55 and 15:30 as there are simply too many unknowns, even those races have disappointingly attracted just five runners each.

Only one of the horses have run more than twice, and you don't know the state of readiness of all but one of them (Ensued is the only horse with a recent run, and he is not without a chance at double-figure odds) - and the 1m3f handicap at 16:05 predictably interested me more.

We have a full field of 14 - five horses were balloted out on Saturday morning - and some improvers among them but I am going to side with proven fitness in the shape of Sir Rumi as my premier bet at 7.06/1 or bigger.

He ran perfectly well to finish second on his return at Doncaster 10 days ago but, in hindsight, I reckon his jockey would have sat a lot nearer the pace had he the chance to ride the race again.

He was always going strongly off the pace but making up ground in those bottomless conditions proved his undoing and he couldn't reel in the prominently-ridden winner.

That showed his well-being though, and he ran okay on his only previous start at this track last September.

He was beaten 4 ½ lengths that day but a draw in one proved a hindrance, as he couldn't go the early pace, got shuffled back on the rail, and never really got into it, though he made good late headway.

If he can hold a more prominent position from stall three here, and utilise his proven stamina over further from around the 2f pole, then he has winning claims.

Mayhem may be on the cards

Stable-switcher Max Mayhem is the one I fear most, having been bought out of Joseph O'Brien's yard for 42,000gns in October and joined Kevin Philippart De Foy, with 3lb claimer Benoit De La Sayette up.

Blimey, that sentence took me five minutes to write and spell check.

The horse may not have kicked on as expected as a 4yo, having won a valuable 1m2f Curragh handicap off 95 on his final start at three, but he ended 2022 with a decent third at Dundalk in October and his excellent new trainer could rekindle the fire off a tempting enough mark of 93.

He was apparently not easy to keep right when with O'Brien, so I imagine his new handler will have him well tuned up here as a result.

Back him at 6.611/2 as a saver. I'm happy to have those two running for me at the odds.

If Laurel is straight enough then she will obviously take all the beating in the 16:40 - she will be heavy odds-on - but it is not an race that interested me from a betting perspective, and that is the only one that counts.

Good luck.