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Mark fancies Ballydoyle to win the Oaks once more
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He expects a Hurricane in the Woodcote
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Varian runner can go well on handicap debut
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It's Oaks day at Epsom and ITV are covering six of the seven races and the first contest of interest from a betting perspective is the 6f Woodcote Stakes for two-year-olds.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick are always to be feared in this type of contest and they team up with recent Haydock scorer Maximized, who cost at £720k at the recent breeze-ups.
He won in good style on that debut despite looking to be the stable second string on both jockey bookings and betting, travelling nicely before settling things with a minimum of fuss in the final furlong. Maximized looked a little green that day and will almost certainly improve, but Epsom is a difficult test for one who maybe still has a bit of growing up to do and the time of that win was nothing flash.
I prefer the claims of Havana Hurricane, who himself created a big impression when winning first time up and hails from a stable that won this race in 2023. That form was franked by the second Logi Bear going in next time and that one reopposes here, but it's hard to see how he reverses the form, seemingly beaten fair and square on the day.
With plenty of progression likely, Havana Hurricane looks a solid choice against Godolphin's favourite.
Back Havana Hurricane in the 14:05 Epsom
Mutaawid did this column a favour when bolting up at Newmarket last time and he holds strong claims again despite being bumped up 10lb for that success.
John & Thady Gosden's son of Frankel looks the type to bag a big handicap this season and it's possible he may even climb higher than that, but I have a bit of a doubt over him at this particular track given he didn't look entirely at home around Goodwood on his seasonal return.
He also got an uncontested lead at HQ last time and things may not pan out quite so favourably this time around with other forward-going types in the field.
Mutaawid isn't passed over lightly, but I'm going to side with Roger Varian's Defiance, who himself could be the type to bag a good prize this term and the stable like to target this race having won it three times in the past.
He'd shaped really well when second over this C&D in the Blue Riband Trial at this track on his return in 2024 before seemingly finding his stamina stretched in the Lingfield Derby Trial next time. Defiance's only other start last term came when down the field in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he clearly wasn't right but was probably flying too high in any case.
He's been given plenty of time since then and has also been gelded as he makes his handicap debut, while the drop back to 1m 2f looks right up his alley. There could be plenty more to come from Defiance and I'm really keen on his chances from what looks a fair opening mark of 99.
Back Defiance in the 15:15 Epsom
Whichever way you shake it down, this year's Oaks revolves around the unbeaten 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower, and there'll be plenty who think she's a good thing.
She's done nothing wrong to date and her form is clearly the best in the line-up, but she has stamina to prove stepping up markedly in trip and her pedigree doesn't give me the confidence that she'll prove up to the task.
Desert Flower is by Night Of Thunder, who was a top-class miler and Desert Flower's dam was best up to 1m 2f, flopping at her only try over this trip.
There are enough doubts in her pedigree for me to want to take her on and in Aidan O'Brien's Minnie Hauk we have a solid alternative who has no such worries.
Granted, her form isn't yet in the same league as the favourite's, but she's done nothing wrong herself and as a daughter of Frankel she can be expected to get even better as she matures.
Her trainer is on record as saying she'll come on plenty for her recent Chester success and she also has Ryan Moore in the plate, who rides her instead of recent impressive Musidora winner Whirl.
Back Minnie Hauk in the 16:00 Epsom