Great St Wilfrid Big Race Verdict: 14/1 selection to defy the market mover in Ripon feature

Big mover in the betting for Ripon feature

Ripon's biggest race of the season, the Great St Wilfrid over 6f at 15:25 will surely be the best punting race of the day, although 15 runners instead of 16 means four places instead of the five.

The news from the Betfair Sportsbook is that Kodiac Thriller has been the big punt. From 14/115.00, he's now 13/27.50 and hunting down Fast Track Harry for favouritism.

I backed Kodiac Thriller at the track last month. That was the race over 5f at the track proving the game is of infinite ironies as the jockey almost fell off at the start and should have won.

He did next time from the same mark 80 at York and the market believes he can again from a 5lb higher mark.

Draw success over the last 10 years

The Great St Wilfrid is often a seen as a big draw race.

Seven winners since 2016 have been double figures from 16, 19, 17, 15, 19, 10, 13. With the low numbers successful including last year's winner Intervention from stall one over the far side for Mick Appleby.

Stall six provided the winner in 2022 and 2023.

Is there a handicap blot?

Top weight Aramram has been fishing in deep waters and his four runs this term have all been non-handicaps and was last seen in a Group 1.

With that, he shoulders top weight from 109, a mean mark and his last handicap performance was a win from 97. Fast Track Harry 11/26.50 ran at York earlier this season from 99 and now runs from 95, plus he has Jack Nicholls claiming 3lbs.

His stall spot could be better, though, in eight.

Eye Of Dubai has struggled with marks beyond 90 in the past and races from 85 on Saturday, while Khafiz was rated 99 last September and started out this term from 97, and surely has a chance from the assessor now from 91?

Khafiz trip now could be the correct one

You have to include Kodiac Thriller in the top four here with a good draw in 14 to the stands' side and the fact he scored at York in the Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe, a performance that showed a fair bit of speed early in a well-run 5f.

He will have no trouble as a previous Ripon 6f winner back up in distance. Khafiz has been running over the wrong distance all season in my opinion.

He wasn't too far behind in a strong piece of handicap form at Haydock in April behind Cosi Bello, Sarab Star, Great Acclaim and Cerulean Bay.

Those four were rated 95, 97, 98 and 103, and the fact Khafiz was well in toucb and travelling well before his stamina gave up on him was telling.

His final furlong was the slowest out of the top five and now with Roger Fell, he could well have his ideal trip.

Pace map with draw details

FRONT RUNNERS: Dark Cloud Rising (15), Lord Roxby (6), I'm Next (10), Musical Touch (9), It Just Takes Time (2), Brighton Boy? (4).

PROMINENT: Aramram (3), Royal Zabeel (5), Fast Track Harry (8), Khafiz? (7), Eye Of Dubai (1), Manila Scouse (13).

MID DIVISION: Musical Touch (9), Brighton Boy? (4), Flight Control (11).

HOLD UP: Khafiz? (7), Eye Of Dubai? (1), Fortification (12).

Trainer form

Richard Hannon - 4-55 last two weeks at 7% and 2-7 at Ripon this season at 28%.

Mick Appleby - 1-20 last two weeks at 5%.

Clive Cox - 3-17 last two weeks at 17%.

David O'Meara - 9-54 at 17% last two weeks and 3-27 at Ripon this season at 11%.

Roger Fell - 1-17 at 6% last two weeks and 2-14 at 14% at Ripon this season.

Nigel Tinkler - 5-28 at 18% last two weeks and 1-18 at Ripon this season at 5%.

Tim Easterby - 4-73 at 5% last two weeks and 11-94 at 12% this season at Ripon.

Richard and Peter Fahey - 4-28 at 14% last two weeks and 2-37 at 5% this season at Ripon.

Mark Walford - 1-9 at 11% last two weeks and 5-18 at 28% at Ripon this season.

John and Sean Quinn - 1-14 at 7% last two weeks and 1-10 at 10% at Ripon this season.

Brian Ellison - 3-22 at 14% last two weeks.

Kevin and Lauren Frost - 0-8 last two weeks.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3-4 Verdict

Having put up Khafiz earlier this week in my ante-post column, I am not too worried about the price drift as he has gone out to 14/115.00.

The draw could be better but as a 7f down to 6f I doubt he'll make it so the jockey Harry Davies will hopefully drag across on the tails of the leaders from stall seven over to the near side.

Tim Easterby landed this race with Staxton in 2020 and Mattmu in 2017 and out of his three representatives here I'M Next and Manila Scouse both are drawn high and we could get a run out of I'm Next as a pace-setter with a high draw, and he's been running over 5f but looked outpaced at Pontefract last time and might just suit 6f at a sharp track.

I want to include Kodiac Thriller as a lot is in place; winning form at York on fast going, a high draw and track form.

1) Khafiz

2) Kodiac Thriller

3) I'm Next

4) Manila Scouse

Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here!