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Goodwood Tips for Saturday: Tony Calvin backs 33/1 Came From The Dark to light up final day

Tony Calvin
04 August 2023
4:00 min read

Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin

TC is backing three on the final day of Glorious Goodwood

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Tony Calvin aims to round off Glorious Goodwood with a winning Saturday as he backs three including Came From The Dark in the Stewards' Cup...

[33/]1 Came From The Dark will relish 6F
Gis A Sub could deliver if he comes on late
Free bet for customers betting £5 on multis. T&Cs apply.

Goodwood - 15:35: Back Came From The Dark

I was very sweet on the chances of Came From The Dark at the Curragh last time and he disappointed me in finishing only eighth, but I came away from the race with the strong impression that the 7yo wants 6f these days, so I am happy to back him at 34.033/1 or bigger in the Stewards Cup at 15:35.

The 25/126.00 each-way, six places, with the Sportsbook is fair if you want to back him each way.

He hasn't raced over 6f for three years but he stayed that trip very well in his younger years - indeed he won over 6f in heavy at Haydock in June 2019 - and, on reflection, he has been crying out for a return to further in his recent starts over 5f.

He is actually due to go down 2lb in future handicaps, but given he races off 89 here, and was as high as 108 last year, I am not unduly bothered by that. Of course, I'd like him to be rated 87 and be carrying 2lb less but, then again, he wouldn't have got into the race if he had been.

I like the way he has cascaded down the weights while running pretty well in defeat, and you could see him staying on again after getting outpaced in Ireland last time, having shaped similarly at Newmarket and Epsom on his previous two outings.

He finished last in his only start at this course back in May, but that six-runner race wouldn't have played to his strengths. I reckon this ground-versatile performer is drawn on the right side in stall 10, considering there is pace in 1, 4, 9 and 12. The other side could have Significantly in 28 to tow them along.

The fact that he operates well on soft and heavy is important as the track is currently due another deluge on Saturday, with one site predicting up to 17mm.

I fear we could get a fair few non-runners if the bad weather materialises at Goodwood and Newmarket.

Back Came From The Dark @ 34.033/1

Bet now

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Gis A Sub

Gis A Sub is another horse who hasn't won for a while - indeed he has just one success on his dance card, in June 2021 - but he has been nibbled at in the market on a couple of occasions this season, and shown glimmers of form.

I am taking a chance with him at 26.025/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange or 25/126.00 win only with the Sportsbook (who are playing four places) in the consolation race at 13:50.

The latter is probably the way to play it at this stage.

The 2021 Gimcrack runner-up has patently not kicked on as expected since then, and has regressed badly in fact, and he is another horse who is badly-in here in this early closer, as he is due to go down 5lb in future handicaps.

Again, that is highly unfortunate - though it means we get a bigger price, obviously - but a mark of 85 still gives him definite chances if he can put his best foot forward. And his draw in five could be decent.

He ran pretty well when eighth at Newmarket off a mark of 90 in May and when winning his group down the middle (though beaten easily enough by those on either rail) off this mark at Haydock two starts ago.

He did go out like a light when tried in blinkers at Hamilton last time but the cheekpieces are back on here (he wore them at Haydock and when beaten just 3 ½ lengths off 99 at York last year) and he doesn't have much competition for the lead on his side.

Justcallmepete (1) and Live In The Moment (14) are the other forward-goers, but I'd like to see Neil Callan sit just off the former and produce Gis A Sub later this time around instead of trying to blaze a trail.

Either way, I am paying to find out if any of the old ability is there off this mark. And if the rain lands he does operate on soft, and good to soft, perfectly well.

Timeform have him racing on soft twice in his life, once when beaten just 4 ½ lengths in a Group 2 in France as a juvenile (he was last of six admittedly) and in the aforementioned run at Newmarket in May. If he reproduces the latter run he will go close here, 5lb wrong or not.

Back Gis A Sub @ 25/126.00

Bet now

Goodwood - 14:25: No bet

Sweet William was so impressive when winning at Newbury last time that I am not inclined to take on this half-brother to Hurricane Lane on in the 1m6f handicap at 14:25.

He won with more than 7lb in hand there (he has gone up that amount, but I strongly suspect the handicapper would love to have bumped him up another few pounds if he could justify it) and I think he is a fair price at just over 5/23.50 on the Exchange, even in a pretty strong handicap.

But I learned my lesson once again with Amleto on Wednesday not to play at prices I am awful at judging, so I will sit this one out.

He is unproven on soft ground but his dam loved the mud, actually winning in the soft at this course before scoring in heavy in France.

Goodwood - 14:25: Back Ghara

Free Wind disappointed in the Hardwicke but it will be disappointing if this 115-rated filly, spectacularly good when winning the Lancashire Oaks last season, can't win the 15:00.

The expected much easier ground will suit her better than the fast surface at Ascot and, even with her 3lb penalty, she really should be dealing with this lot.

However, regular readers, and Racing Only Bettor listeners, know I love a headgear stat and they don't get much better than a Gosden horse in a first-time hood.

Big John on his own was 24 from 98 with this option but since he has teamed up with his son, The Real Slim Thady, they are eight from 23.

Mustard.

Ghara wears the hood for the first time here - she was due to do so at Newmarket on July 22nd but self-certed on the day - and she is a bet on the stats alone, but I also think she has been shaping like 1m6f will suit the Frankel filly.

It will need to improve her significantly, allied to the hood, that much is true. She is rated a mere 95.

She looked one-paced when fourth in the Lingfield Oaks trial and when in midfield in the Ribblesdale at 100/1101.00, but she stuck on well both times - I liked her willing attitude at Royal Ascot, especially as she was bang last after coming tardily out of the stalls - and the stamina test promises to bring about marked improvement.

There are shades of Mimikyu about her.

That filly was rated just 99 going into the Group 2 Park Hill last year, but a first-time hood and the step up to 1m6f for the first time saw her land a punt, beating the 113-rated Eshaada pointless, and elevated her to a mark of 112 afterwards.

I suggest you back Ghara at 21.020/1 of bigger on the Exchange - the 20/121.00 with the Sportsbook is obviously fine, but there is plenty of 25/126.00 in the marketplace, so I am setting a fair guide price there - and place-only on the Exchange too once that market is loaded, if all eight runners are still in the race once it is.

Back Ghara @ 21.020/1

Bet now

That way, you are assured three places if we get a non-runner in the dead-eight field.

I will also be backing her in the Without Favourite market when those lines appear on the Sportsbook and on the exchange.

Indeed, I could not believe it when the first firm up with this line on Thursday offered her at 20/121.00, then went 14/115.00. They also offered her at 10/111.00 without both the jolly and River Of Stars. I got involved.

Personally, I'd happily back her at 10/111.00 or bigger without her stablemate Free Wind, even if the weather is the big worry.

She was beaten 80 lengths on soft ground at Newbury in April (it was actually ridiculously heavy that day) which is an obvious concern if it pours down, but something else may have been the reason for that stinker.

Either way, I'll take my chances.

Newmarket - 14:05: No bet

Over to HQ where the going is currently good, good to soft in places, but the forecast for Friday and Saturday is pretty grim, so I reckon we could be looking at soft ground.

Or indeed heavy on this well-watered course. The main weather site I use currently has 23mm landing on Friday and Saturday.

I won't play in the 6f fillies' nursery at Newmarket at 14:05 but I thought impressive course and distance winner Say Hello and Haydock scorer Tierney were the two to beat. The market is pretty much telling you the same. They opened up as the 4/14.80 favourite and 6/16.80 respectively with the Sportsbook.

Tierney is proven on soft, having shaped well on at Chester on her debut, so I would lean towards her, but I can leave the race alone.

Newmarket - 14:40: No bet

I also thought the betting was correct in the Listed 1m4f contest at 14:40 in that Curragh Cup third and 6/42.46 favourite Amusement could take a fair bit of whacking and, if there is one to beat her, it could be Godolphin's Ascot winner Sunset Point 9/25.30.

Both have winning form on soft ground.

However, there is little juice in either price in truth, and it wouldn't surprise you if the well-bred Sweet Memories (a Sea The Stars half-sister to the Moyglare winner Cursory Glance) stepped up from her Newbury novice win to be very competitive here, so, again, I am not inclined to force a bet.

And it is not as if I am a massive fan of punting on the July course, especially when the weather forecast is this grim. If they get the forecast rain then 10/111.00 chance Understated comes firmly into the equation.

Good luck today.

Read Daryl Carter's Saturday tips here

Watch our weekend racing preview here...

Recommended bets

Back Gis A Sub @ 26.025/1 or bigger in 13:50 at Goodwood or 25/126.00 win-only with Sportsbook

Back Ghara @ 21.020/1 or bigger in win in 15:00 at Goodwood or 20/121.00 win-only with Sportsbook

Back Ghara @ 4.57/2 or bigger in place market in 15:00 at Goodwood when the market is live on Friday evening

Back Came From The Dark @ 34.033/1 or bigger in 15:35 at Goodwood

PROFIT AND LOSS (April 16 onwards)

STAKED: 123 RETURNS: 143.4 P AND L: +20.4 PREVIOUS (from March 26 2022 -April 15 2023) Staked: 436 Returns: 643.6 P/L: +207.6 All exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP for sake of fairness

The Betfair Sportsbook is giving customers a completey free bet to use on Racing Multiples across the next three days (Sep 29 to Oct 1) including top-class action at Newmarket and Longchamp. You must opt-in. T&Cs apply.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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Goodwood Tips for Saturday: Tony Calvin backs 33/1 Came From The Dark to light up final day

[33/]1 Came From The Dark will relish 6F

Gis A Sub could deliver if he comes on late

Free bet for customers betting £5 on multis. T&Cs apply.

Goodwood - 15:35: Back Came From The Dark

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Gis A Sub

Goodwood - 14:25: No bet

Goodwood - 14:25: Back Ghara

Newmarket - 14:05: No bet

Newmarket - 14:40: No bet

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[33/]1 Came From The Dark will relish 6F

Gis A Sub could deliver if he comes on late

Free bet for customers betting £5 on multis. T&Cs apply.

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