Goodwood Tips for Friday: Tony Calvin backs 16/1 Wizard to work his magic

• 16/117.00 Vino for victory? He has a lot going for him

• 16/117.00 The Wizard of Eye has form to succeed

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It's all about how much the sodden track dries out now with a much better forecast for the next 36 hours or so. It couldn't have got much worse than Wednesday at Goodwood, even if the course's (presumably faulty) rain gauge only recorded a scarcely believable 4.6mm on the day, and it may well be that my first Friday selection is a non-runner because of the ground.

They were calling it soft on Thursday morning, presumably with a touch of unofficial heavy thrown in, but Goodwood is one of those quick-draining tracks and only 2mm is due now up to Saturday on the main weather site I use.

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Vino Victrix

Hopefully the ground will be deemed suitable by connections, as it could well be that the Goodwood Cup heroes of Tuesday, Hughie Morrison and Tom Marquand, bag another staying contest with Vino Victrix in the 2m4f handicap a 13:50.

The ground is the obvious problem as all the evidence suggests that even soft ground is no good to my selection, let alone heavy, but hopefully it will begin to dry out significantly from here on in.

It was officially good to soft when he won here last season (by 3 ¾ lengths off just a 4lb lower mark than this) and he can race off the same mark as when chasing home handicap blot Run For Oscar in the Cesarewitch last year. He saw off 19 others that day by a length or more, so he is weighted to win this, all right.

His form chance is clear then and you can mark up his run in the Northumberland Plate last time as he raced prominently in a race that suited the patiently-ridden closers.

One firm bizarrely made him a 33/134.00 poke on Wednesday but I will take my chances at 16/117.00 each-way, five places, with the Sportsbook and hopefully Morrison is not too trigger-happy by withdrawing him early, and decides to see how the land lies on Friday morning.

The old silver fox won this race with Star Rider in 2016 and Vino Victrix has a lot going for him.

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Law of the Sea

Given Vino Victrix may be a non-runner, I am going in two-handed, and I was tossing up between Temporize and Law Of The Sea, both 14/115.00 pokes with the Sportsbook.

In truth, I will probably back both, but I couldn't really justify going in three-handed from a tipping point of view.

I am going to go with Law Of The Sea, with Temporize getting the bullet purely because he must have had a hard race when just touched off at Ascot last week. He is player all right if fresh enough for the job, as he is 2lb well-in on the Ascot run.

However, Law Of The Sea it is, despite the fact that he beat only one home in the aforementioned Northumberland Plate last time. But he did the unfavourable donkey work from the front there, and he was struck into anyway.

On his earlier form, he has a very solid chance here. He was unfortunate not to go very close in the Chester Cup on soft ground in May (just 3lb higher here) and then went on to run crackers in defeat at Haydock (he would have won if ridden more aggressively) and when a close fourth in the Ascot Stakes.

Like Temporize, he doesn't have any course form but all the other boxes are ticked, as they say. Trainer Ian Williams won this race in 2014 and 2017.

The 14/115.00 may be under pressure very quickly but 12/113.00 would be fine.

Goodwood - 14:25: No bet

Nostrum looked awesome when making all on his return in a hot Listed race at Newmarket but he is priced accordingly at 4/61.67 - though a touch bigger on the exchange as you'd expect - in Group 3 company at 14:25.

Of course, they were considering going for the Sussex Stakes with him, but they keep their sights lowered. However, it is not as if he is bombproof.

You will read and a hear a lot about the "bounce factor", real or imagined, with this horse in the next 24 hours, as he was coming back from injury (knocked himself in the spring when getting ready for the Guineas) and a long absence last time. This will be the softest ground he has encountered and it is not as if this is a weak Group 3.

And he could possibly have three rivals for the lead here after getting an easy solo at Newmarket.

Docklands was hugely impressive at Royal Ascot, albeit in handicap company off a mark of just 94, but the one that could cause an upset is Galeron.

He was last in the St James's Palace Stakes on his most recent outing, which is hardly encouraging admittedly, but that was clearly not his true running.

And he is certainly not a no-hoper on his Guineas fourth, or his fifth to Paddington in the Irish equivalent, and he has run three times at the track, with one win, and he has been successful on soft.

I was very tempted by the Sportsbook's 16/117.00 - like Bold Discovery and Epictetus, he is only 5lb shy of the favourite on official ratings - but I am going to wait until the Without Favourite markets are out. For all the possible negatives, Nostrum did look a potential worldie at Newmarket.

Not too often do you see Sir Michael Stoute so obviously impressed as he was in that brilliant post-race interview with Racing TV's Lydia Hislop.

No firms have priced up the without market yet but Only Montesilvano is a bigger fixed-odds price than Galeron, so my guide price for Galeron without Nostrum is 6/17.00. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed (@tony_calvin), as I will outline a bet there if I get the price I am after when the lines go up.

Goodwood - 15:00: Back The Wizard Of Eye

Having tipped him ante-post, and pressed up win-only on the day when he was a massive drifter all the way up to a Betfair SP of (48.0), I was getting pretty excited when Tacarib Bay cruised into the lead on the far side in the big 7f handicap at Ascot on Saturday.

Then I looked at the near side, and I was immediately deflated as they were miles clear. Especially as he finished sixth, despite easily winning his race on the far side by a couple of lengths, and I had tipped him each way, five places, ante-post (up to eight places were available on the day!).

It shows you how myopic you can be when you have backed a horse, as I was staggered to log on to the Timeform site on Wednesday and see Tacarib Bay had traded at a low of just 10/111.00.

I am not unduly worried about him backing up so quickly , as he arguably ran a career best when running Triple Time to 1 ¼ lengths in a Group 3 at Haydock just a week after being beaten just over a length in a 7f handicap here last season (off a 3lb higher mark than this). He clearly stays a mile and handles deep ground.

But the combination of 1m on soft ground does worry me, though it could be that the gelding operation he had before the Ascot run last time has instilled a more professional attitude, and added grit, towards the end of his races.

So I was torn as to whether to stay loyal to him here, especially as this is the one of the premier "luck" races of the season, and he will need plenty of fortune from trap four if he gets shuffled back early.

I backed him on Wednesday, and I certainly wouldn't lay the 13.012/1 he currently is on the Betfair Exchange, but I have to admit my doubts have grown since, so I am going in with The Wizard Of Eye here as my main bet at 17.016/1 or bigger on the Exchange.

That's a fair price to aim for but, as ever, I'll settle at Betfair SP as that is the fairest approach as regards my P & L.

I'll think you'll get bigger than 16/117.00, as he is 20/121.00 in the wider marketplace and currently 21.020/1 on the exchange, though the Sportsbook are currently ducking him a touch at 14/115.00.

Remarkably, this is the horse's handicap debut after 18 starts, and he has clearly mixed it in a much higher grade than this.

Among his better efforts was a close second at 40/141.00 in a Group 3 at this meeting last year on fast ground, and he has form with plenty of dig, too.

He was beaten under seven lengths in the Group 1 Lockinge two starts ago and I am willing to forgive him his below-par run in the John Of Gaunt Stakes last time - he emptied very quickly after travelling well - and not least because he got dropped 2lb for it.

He is off a mark of 105 here, which gives him every chance on a number of his runs in a higher grade, and he can go forward from six if his jockey decides. Indeed, some of his better efforts have been when making the running, but he can sit handy off the pace, too.

Trainer Stan Moore has had only 13 winners this season but two of those have come recently at odds of 22/123.00 and 11/26.50.

Goodwood - 15:00: Back Tacarib Bay

I have thought about it and I have to have Tacarib Bay onside too from a tipping perspective at 11.010/1 or bigger. Both of my horses will need all the luck going, so this is a win-only race for me tipping-wise.

I'll leave it there as I don't have a strong opinion in the King George Stakes at 15:35, though I did chuck a few quid each way on last year's narrow runner-up Raasel at 33/134.00 yesterday. The draw probably did for him when he disappointed in a handicap here on Tuesday off a mark of just 101.

Go well.

Read Ryan Moore: Expecting a big run from impressive Espionage on Thursday at Goodwood

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