Good Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's dreaming of a 10/1 winner at Newcastle

• Rainbow Dreamer at 10/1 the main bet of the day

• Brewing worth opposing at Lingfield

• 6.05/1 Final Voyage & 25/1 Hafeet Alain are Tony's two tips

When you look at Newcastle's Good Friday fields against the amazing prize money on offer - the opening Listed race isn't on ITV but is still worth six figures, while the others have 150k or 200k on offer - something remains very wrong somewhere.

I guess we all know why.

Understandably, we keep banging on about the talent drain in this country as soon as horses hit the 80-rated barrier, and start getting sold and shipped off, but perhaps we should be shouting louder and more often when I see a card with over a million quid on offer attracting just 60 runners.

I appreciate the qualifying criteria for the day makes it more complex, but it's sad to see three of the seven races not even attracting eight runners, and it is clearly a long-term haul in the UK for all concerned before the situation will improve.

If it ever can, with the Middle Eastern racing programme looming ever larger.

Never mind the Racing League, a breakaway league in the likes of Saudi and Qatar is not a big price in the coming years.

Still, mini-moan over, let's play with the hand with we are dealt, and there is a fair smattering of quality on show.

I wouldn't profess to be an all-weather specialist (or, of more relevance, a regular bettor on it) so I am not going mad stakes-wise, but let's kick off with Newcastle, starting with my main Good Friday bet.

Back Rainbow to put us in early dreamland

Back Rainbow Dreamer at 10/1 each-way, three places, in the 2m Marathon at 14:25.

The oldest in the field, along with fellow 10yo Withhold, he comes here on the back of a pretty underwhelming run at Kempton in early February but it transpired he came back sore after he strained a muscle in his quarters there (as reported by Alan King in his Weekender column), so that performance can be forgiven.

He had earlier finished a good second to Berkshire Rocco at Southwell in January, with 8 lengths back to Earlofthecotswolds, and that pair top the betting here at 2/1 and 7/2 respectively, while my man is 10/1.

That seems wrong to me.

He has clearly regressed since being rated high as 111 in 2021 but he is still only 4lb off the above pair (who are rated just 101) on official figures and he has a good body of work at this track, including a close fifth off a mark of 107 in the 2020 Northumberland Plate.

Okay, he was only 4 ½ lengths fifth to Earlofthecotswoldsh in this race last year but I don't think he got an optimum ride there and I'd be hopeful he at least hits the frame here, a 10yo or not, though this is probably a tighter race than the betting suggests, with a few in with a chance.

A few each-way fancies but no bets

Elsewhere on the Newcastle card, I'd be struggling for bets beyond the obvious to be perfectly honest - for example, I am happy to leave the shorties like Forest Of Dean, and the two market leaders in the fillies and mares' race to others - and I don't see any point in waffling on any further, with an inevitable no-bet conclusion.

A few outsiders did catch my eye - Glorious Angel at 20/1 in the 13:50, Notre Belle Bete at 10/1 in the 15:00, Lord Of The Lodge at 12/1 in 15:35 and Alligator Alley at 16/1+ on the exchange in the last (I sound like a TV pundit there naming a hatful in the pre-race analysis in the hope that one wins so I can claim a winner) - but I decided I am not punting them myself, so it was effectively game over from a tipping point of view.

On to Leafy Lingers then.

Voyage and Alain can push the fav in 1m handicap

Brewing may be unbeaten and representing William Haggas and ridden by Ryan Moore, but he takes out too much of the market at 11/4 in the 1m handicap at 14:40 given his inexperience - he has never faced more than seven rivals and this will be a whole new level of rough and tumble for him, especially if he doesn't get away smart from stall one - and I will take him on with two.

Final Voyage, ridden by the latest media darling, 5lb claimer Billy Loughnane, is my idea of the most likely winner, ahead of Brewing, so he is a bet at 6.05/1 or bigger, which I imagine you will get given he is 13/2 in a place elsewhere. 5/1+ will do for me, though.

He was rated as high as 93 when trained by James Tate, with one of his better efforts coming over 1m2f here, and he looks well handicapped off 88 given his recent form for Johnny Murtagh, even before factoring in that claim.

His latest second under an inexperienced 10lb claimer at Dundalk in January looks like strong form - the winner was only beaten a neck by Mulgrave, also in here, off an 8lb higher mark next time - and if Loughnane gets the breaks from stall 11 on this hold-up performer I can see him being hard to beat.

It may be a tough watch as he attempts to weave his way through the field up the straight if you back him, though.

On a similar theme, Hafeet Alain is likely be trading double his pre-race price after a furlong as he invariably starts slowly and has to be rousted along, just as in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton when ridden by Loughnane last time.

That could spell trouble from stall eight then but he is a big price at 25/1 with the Sportsbook and he returns to a track on which he has run well on all three visits, including a course and distance win off a 6lb higher mark last season.

He was dropped 3lb for the Wolverhampton run (he has come down 9lb in total this season, having run well on four of his six starts) and he looks too big a price back at Lingers.

Back him at 25/1 win only with the Sportsbook or 26.025/1 or bigger on the exchange. I'll settle at Betfair SP.

A couple of interest but I'm not forcing a bet

Tony Carroll betters his usual strike rate when applying blinkers for the first time (11 from 71 since 2009) so that makes his 20/1 chance Lequinto interesting in the 6f handicap at 15:15, though I can always resist a bet in a sprint, especially when they are drawn 12 of 12.

It is 13/2 the field if you shop around in the 1m2f handicap at 15:50, so it is obviously a very competitive heat.

I thought Million Thanks was a fair enough price at 8/1, given he is 2lb well-in after his Kempton second on Saturday with a decent claimer now taking off 3lb, but the 1m2f trip is an unknown and there are credible dangers lurking everywhere, so I am not inclined to force another bet.

Good luck all.