ITV Races

Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's hoping for a fantastic Friday with his super six bets

Betfair Tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has a sextet of bets for ITV Racing on Friday

We have a bumper day of action on ITV Racing on Friday with 10 races from three meetings, and here with his sextet of bets is our resident tipster Tony Calvin...

  • ITV Racing cameras are at Newmarket, Chepstow and York

  • Tony has six bets on the afternoon

  • 14/115.00 and 9/110.00 tips in the handicap at HQ

  • No bets at Chepstow but two appeal at York


Newmarket - 13:50: No Bet

ITV have sneaked another contest into their now live 10-race schedule on Friday, so I've ditched the usual non award-winning flowery intro today, and am getting straight down to business.

Although there is only one handicap among Newmarket's five races on the box, we will start there with what looks like an impossible opener at 13:50.

I should say the ground is currently good to firm (good places) after 15.4mm of rain from Wednesday into Thursday morning so far - that amount has officially made little difference it seems as it has only eased slightly from good to firm, which rather surprises me (basically I don't believe it) - and more is due from midnight onwards from Thursday night into, and during, Friday.

A lot more. Potentially 24mm's worth. And it looks like it is still drizzling at Newmarket at the moment.

So, at a guess, maybe we are looking at soft ground by race-time on Friday? It is not ideal doing a tipping column this early but needs must. We could get a lot of non-runners.


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A crude assessment maybe, but more rain than is currently forecast will suit Flora Of Bermuda no end, and less will suit her main market rival Inquisitively (pulled out on soft ground at Donny), in the Cornwallis Stakes.

I'd say the former is set to go off a clear favourite if the expected deluge arrives.

However, you can make a case for a load of these, and I am sure plenty will take a chance on the fireball Zoulu Chief, and his catch-me-if-you can tactics, stepping down to 5f for the first time since his debut.

You can easily see a scenario where he gets on the far rail from stall two, leads and stays there, but he has pace either side of him and his lung-busting run over 6f here last week must have taken a fair bit out of him and the rain may well blunt his main asset (he was withdrawn on soft ground at Doncaster, like Inquisitively).

No bet.

Newmarket - 14:25: Back Gushing Gold

Admittedly, that is normally my default position on 2yo races but when I did an ante-post piece on Friday's racing on Sunday, Gushing Gold at 10/111.00 in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at 14:25 was the nearest I came to a recommendation.

Along with Bellarchi, she probably has the least sexy profile in the race, as an experienced filly against five last-time-out winners, but I think she just about has the best form (she is officially joint top-rated alongside Chic Colombine, but admittedly three of these don't have a mark yet) and she is ground-versatile.

Her Doncaster second to Dancing Gemini on soft ground last time may be the strongest piece of form on show here and her optimum quotes look mighty tempting.

The problem is that she is up against lightly-raced horses with more upside who do not have that much to find anyway, so I have to resist a bet at the Sportsbook's 8/19.00 , as there is 12/113.00 out there in the wider marketplace.

But she is currently 13.012/1 on the exchange and that is where I will playing. You will probably get bigger given the 12/113.00 elsewhere, but 10/111.00-plus is my recommendation in my bet summary. I'd agree with the Sportsbook's assessment of her, so I am betting.

Back Gushing Gold in 14:25 Newmarket @ 11.010/1+

Bet now

Newmarket - 15:00: No Bet

Pogo was a huge 16/117.00 with the Sportsbook for the 7f Group 2 at 15:00 on Sunday and those that took the double-digits about last year's winner are sitting relatively pretty, with a repeat bid very much on the cards after a good fourth in the Foret last time.

Or they were.

The expected rain could be a big problem for him, so I'd wait to race-time to back him. And there is the little fact to consider that he is the lowest-rated in here, too (though that is a touch misleading as he started the season on a mark of 115).

Newmarket - 15:35: Back Satin

Ah, finally, we have a handicap to go at in the 15:35. It could be the market leaders, the 6lb well-in Humanity and the progressive Alsakib will dominate (they are 5/23.50 and 4/15.00 respectively), but I can't see what Satin has done to earn quotes as big as 16/117.00 and 14/115.00 when the betting re-opened on Wednesday afternoon.

Mind you, the Sportsbook were fully alive to her chance and opened up at just 9/110.00 on Wednesday before pushing her out to 12/113.00.

Her trainer is of the opinion that she has been an unlucky filly throughout her career, but she blossomed for first-time cheekpieces when bolting up at Leopardstown last time.

Jessie Harrington reckoned the headgear made her less intimated by the opposition that day - arguing they made her feel less crowded in a big field - and I'll take a very positive view of that win in a fair time.

Granted, she went up 9lb for the victory and the form hasn't really worked out, but the runner-up was well backed on the show and it could be important that they are staying in handicaps rather than looking for black type.

Back her at 15.014/1 or bigger. She is currently 16.5 on the exchange as this piece goes live.

Back Satin in 15:35 Newmarket @ 15.014/1+

Bet now

Newmarket - 15:35: Back Lucky Fifteen

Timeform called it good to firm at Leopardstown but they also have it as good to soft for two of her earlier wins, so hopefully the rain won't be an issue.

I am going in two-handed though, as Lucky Fifteen is a decent saver at 9/110.00 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

I would have tipped him ante-post but the Sportsbook wanted to duck him at 10/111.00 when he was 16/117.00 elsewhere, but I am happy to take the reduced price now he is here and it is money back if he is withdrawn.

Forget the official soft ground at Goodwood last time, as it was heavy, and extreme heavy at that - why I am getting Nicky Henderson and Lydia Hislop vibes here? - so I am more than willing to forgive him that eclipse at 6/42.50.

Prior to that, he had looked as if he was a 1m4f winner in waiting with his strong-staying successes over 1m2f, pouring in on late in three successive victories, and his pedigree backs that up, too. Although he is by Lope De Vega, his dam won over 1m5f and he is a half-brother to a 1m6f scorer.

He has shades of the stable's 2018 winner of this race, Rock Eagle, who also blossomed for the step up to 1m4f for the first time after being beaten at Goodwood the time before.

If the ground gets very testing, then Ralph Beckett may pull him out I suppose given what happened at Goodwood, but he is getting some of my cash at this stage.

Back Lucky Fifteen, E/W 4 Places, in 15:35 Newmarket @ 9/110.00

Bet now

Newmarket - 16:10: Back See The Fire

I know she will be suited by the extra furlong and the easier ground, but I was very disappointed with Ylang Ylang here over 7f last time, so I was going to sit out the Group 1 Fillies Mile at 16:10.

But then I looked at the betting and thought Shuwari and Ylang Ylang took out too much of the market at 13/82.63 and 11/43.75.

See The Fire is the clear pick of the (best available) prices for me as she clearly bumped into a real deep ground lover in Darnation at Doncaster last time (though Timeform called it only good to soft), having raced on what the old Halifax mob called good to firm on the July course on her debut.

That ground versatility comes in very handy when tipping 32 hours in advance too but, again - they have a free pass to my brain it seems - the Sportsbook are on the same wavelength as me, going bottom price of 7/18.00 on Wednesday when she is 12/113.00 and 11/112.00 elsewhere, 12s in four places, in fact.

But I am getting with this daughter of Sea The Stars and the Juddmonte winner Arabian Queen at 11.010/1 or bigger on the exchange (her current odds as this goes live). I'll settle at Betfair SP, as that is my set norm. Some jockeys who rode in that May Hill race don't rate it, but we shall see.

Back See The Fire in 16:10 Newmarket @ 11.010/1+

Bet now

Chepstow - 13:35 & 14:10: No Bets

Oh, hang on, we have two jumps races from Chepstow on ITV.

That must mean Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls must be ready to start earning again.

The ground is currently good to soft there (they had a whopping 16mm overnight, so I am very surprised it isn't deeper) and by the time they get to race-time it could be heavy as they are expecting another 6mm through Thursday and 19mm on Friday.

I'm not sure I want to be betting so far out with that forecast. It is certainly not a given that the 10 and nine runner races on the box will be each way 1,2,3 betting heats at the off.

In fact, I am very sure I don't want to be unloading, unless I had a very good reason to, as plenty of non-runners will surely follow any significant rain and the markets could be all around the place by the time some read this.

And if it doesn't land, then I don't want to be hanging my mythical hat on a real mudlark.

Good Boy Bobby and De Rasher Counter would probably be my pick at 9/25.50 and 14/115.00 respectively in the veterans' chase at 13:35 and I hope Captain Teague justifies odds-on favouritism in the Persian War at 14:10, as it will be good to see the soft ground Cheltenham bumper third make an early 2023-2024 statement in the novices' hurdle ranks, but I am not betting myself there at the moment.

York - 14:40: Back Urban Outlook

It is good (good to soft in places) at York, with a dry Thursday forecast, but be aware they are due 13mm through Friday , and first up there on ITV is the 1m5f188yd handicap at 14:40.

A few of these could have been rocking up in the 1m4f handicap at Newmarket , and one of those was the favourite Urban Outlook.

And, to perfectly honest, the only real decision I had to make here was to side with him or let the race slide from a betting perspective, even though it looks a lively enough heat on paper.

He won as snug as a bug in a rug at Haydock last time, and a 6lb rise to 85 doesn't bother me at all given his potential and pedigree - he is related to the stable's subsequent Hong Kong Grade 1 operator Urban Aspect - and I decided he is a fair bet at 6.05/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is 9/25.50 with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places, if you want to punt there, and there is plenty of 5s knocking around fixed-odds.

It was soft at Haydock, so the expected rain is no problem for him.

Back Urban Outlook in 1440 York @ 6.05/1+

Bet now

York 15:50: Back La Trinidad

There is nothing doing for me in the 18-runner 2yo race at 15:15, which leaves me with the 7f192yd handicap at 15:50.

David O'Meara is running four of the 13 and it won't surprise anyone if Orbaan pops up off his mark (but we have been saying that for too long now), but La Trinidad immediately looked too a big a price at 10/111.00 to me. He is also 11.010/1 on the exchange.

He is 2lb well-in after his second at Redcar last Saturday, he is a dual course winner and he has run okay in this very race for the last two years.

The quick turnaround is the obvious worry for this smooth traveller, but he won twice in nine days in 2020 and his price surely underestimates his chance given the form he is in.

A much busier punting day than in recent weeks, so good fortune to us all.

Back La Trinidad in 15:50 York @ 10/111.00

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PROFIT AND LOSS 

STAKED: 185
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L: - 16.1

PREVIOUS (from March 26 2022 -April 15 2023)

Staked: 436
Returns: 643.6
P/L: +207.6

*All exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP for sake of fairness

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