Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's hoping Ginger and Destiny will deliver at Perth

• ITV Racing from Sandown and Perth on Friday

• Small field sizes means a no-bet card for Tony at the Esher track

• Two win only bets at Perth for our top tipster

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*PLEASE NOTE: Sandown's Friday card has been abandoned

Sandown will be disappointed by the field sizes for their ITV card on Friday and, while we expect few runners in the domestic Group races these days, the fact that the Esher Cup has attracted just five horses is possibly yet another wake-up call for the sport.

In truth, it struggles to get much sleep these days, as the hits keep coming.

Of course, a mixture of heavy and soft ground on both Flat courses would have been a barrier of entry to many - so it is probably best not to overplay this - but this 3yo 1m handicap was pretty big news when I was growing up.

I remember being on track back in 1988 when Raykour landed a punt for Filthy Luca in the race at 13/8 and then finished second in the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes two months later.

The race clearly does not hold the lustre it once did but five runners (down from 16 at the five-day stage) for a 30k Class 2 0-100 handicap, whatever the weather, is sad to see, as is the fact the meeting only has 39 runners on its seven-race card, and no contest has each-way 1,2,3 betting.

And I wouldn't rule out a fair few withdrawals either if they get the rain some are forecasting throughout the afternoon on Thursday, with up to 7mm possible (and maybe more) according one to one site.

Bets are thin on the deep ground then, as bookmakers are obviously keen to keep the known mudlovers on side.

Esher Cup could be set up for the jolly

Sandown, 13:50

In fact, all bar Metal Merchant have at least soft ground form in the Esher Cup at 13:50, with Saxon King holding a victory on heavy to his name.

It is not a race I am keen to bet in, especially as I couldn't see any pace betting angle into the race, with three having gone forward in the past (Saxon King, Physique and Legend Of Leros) and another Metal Merchant, who races prominently.

That could set it up for Local Dynasty but there was never any chance of him being underestimated in the market, and he is a short-priced favourite. The Sportsbook's current 11/8 is the biggest fixed-odds price around.

Odds-on derby winner could get shorter

Sandown, 14:25

The same applies to his stablemate, 2021 Derby winner Adayar, who is getting 5lb from his main form rival Anmaat in the Gordon Richards Stakes at 14:25.

This Group 2 shows Sandown does have stars on the card then, and some hugely promising horses too in other contests, but just not enough of them for betting purposes.

That said, I was surprised that the first firm up on Wednesday made Adayar 8/11, though I imagine their line of thinking was he wouldn't be subjected to a hard time first time up in this ground.

That was taken though, and he is now best at 4/6 with the Sportsbook, a price that will be coming under pressure.

Will Mutasaabeq get his own way out in front?

Sandown, 15:00

The seven-runner Group 2 bet365 Mile at 15:00 is another little cracker as it stands, though I suspect we could lose Potapova if we get a lot more rain.

I thought it was a really trappy little race, in which all seven have their chance, but I can see Mutasaabeq getting his own way out in front for the in-form Charlie Hills from trap one.

The problem is that he has a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable against horses of a similar standard - so the Sportsbook's 4/1 looks too skinny - and especially so if the 120-rated Group 1 performer Light Infantry is fit and on his A-game, though David Simcock's horse has been priced up pretty defensively at 6/4 (though currently heads towards 15/8 on the exchange, which is more realistic).

Fire appeals but ground a complete unknown

Sandown, 15:35

Aidan O'Brien decided not to confirm either of his two five-day entries in the Classic Trial at 15:35 but it remains a corker of sorts, with all five runners having a lot to recommend them.

The Group 1-placed Arrest and Salt Bay, and Group 3 Zetland Stakes winner Flying Honours (never raced on anything worse than good), have the best form and the first two have proven heavy-ground ability, but I am hoping 6/1 chance Circle Of Fire is allowed to take his chance.

He looked a very smart prospect when easily beating a couple of fair sorts on fast ground at Salisbury last season and I'll be very interested to see what he can do upped in grade, but whether he wants it this deep is anyone's guess.

And connections might not want to guess for his first start of the season. Even if they do roll the dice, the ground is clearly a complete unknown for him.

Nothing doing at Sandown then - it really is the ultimate no-bet card for me - but luckily ITV are showing a couple of decent handicaps at Perth. It is currently good (good to soft in places) there , with minimal rain due.

Back Mail to deliver in Perth opener

Perth, 13:30

Inferno Sacree looks the likely leader in the 2m handicap hurdle at 13:30 (there are another couple of occasional forward-goers in here) but I think Ginger Mail could well reel him in and take a lot of beating.

2m on decent ground is what he wants and he comes here after an excellent second to Traprain Law at Ayr last month .

He has gone up 4lb to a career-high mark of 119 on the back of that run, but it is fully justified as the winner went into that race in top form (and they pulled a mile clear of the third, too) and he has since finished an excellent third to Afadil in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last week off a 5lb higher mark, and the first-time cheekpieces were pretty much the only thing that worried me about Ginger Mail, as it is an unknown.

That and his price, I guess.

The trainer is 2 from 14 with first-time cheekpieces since 2016, but he has also had five seconds in that period.

I thought his current odds of 5/2 with the Sportsbook were perhaps the lowest I would be willing to go - and not odds that I usually go anywhere near - but it is acceptable on an exceptionally quiet punting day.

And, looking back at the Ayr run last time, he may well have beaten the all-the-way winner had he not fluffed the last.

Be aware that this is an eight-runner race, and Glentruan (8/1 with the Sportsbook) is also due to run at Perth on Thursday too, so maybe it would be best to hold fire on any each-way bets.

So there will probably be a Rule 4 on my bet. However, back him at 3.55/2 or bigger. There is plenty of 11/4 knocking around as this piece goes live.

Lucinda can bag another National

Perth, 14:05

We also have another National to go at on the card, in this case the Highland version at 14:05, and I initially couldn't get worked up about a punt on this one.

However, the in-form Lucinda Russell has a very strong duo in here with Destiny Is All and Return Fire and I would greatly prefer them over the others - particularly the former who ran well over 3m5f when second to Volcano (completing a hat-trick in that race) off this mark in the soft at Warwick last time, and should be suited by the expected better ground - and Destiny Is All is particularly tempting.

He has improved for the application of cheekpieces on his last two starts and, with Derek Fox having been stood down after an unseat on Wednesday, I am wondering whether 5lb claimer Patrick Wadge will switch from Return Fire if the Grand National winning jockey is still unable to ride on Friday.

That wouldn't be a negative if so - Wadge stood in for Fox on Corrigeen Fox on Wednesday and did the business - though not that it really matters to my tip/bet either way. Fox is due to ride Douglas Talking in Ireland on Thursday, but still no news there.

The 10/1 in a place about Destiny Is All on Wednesday was silly-big, and was taken, but I am happy to back him win-only at 7s with the Sportsbook.

So just the two small bets for me on Friday. I did have a look at Punchestown too, but that is not a betting card either.

Good luck.

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