Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin likes a class dropper at York and two big prices at Newbury

• Tony Calvin has three tips for Friday's ITV Racing

• Likes a class dropper at York

• Two big prices chanced in Newbury handicap

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Big price Tierney could be the answer in guessing game

York, 13:50 - No Bet

It has been a very quiet punting week for me at York so far and, upon looking at the Friday card not long after the 10am entries appeared on Wednesday morning, I feared that would be the case again given the shape of some of the races.

Obviously prices dictate all though, so let's get stuck in, starting with the 5f Listed 2yo fillies' race at 13:50.

Before I start, I should say that rain was due at York throughout Friday, but maybe not enough to have a dramatic effect on the current good ground, with good to firm in places. The amount forecast keeps changing, so who knows?

In fact, just before this column went live just before 10am, the Friday forecast of 5mm rain from earlier in the week has changed to just 0.1mm on the main weather site I use, so maybe they will have to water lightly again on Thursday night.

I am not a big fan of betting on juvenile races, especially at this stage of the season with so little to go on, but no-one is going to argue with Persian Dreamer heading the betting after she saw off Dorothy Lawrence with ease in a good time at Newmarket last month.

The only negatives are her predictably short price (11/8 with the Sportsbook) and the fact the owners like their horses to be revved up first time, so maybe the runner-up will get a lot closer.

And of course there are plenty of others to fear in here, such as fellow recent winners Got To Love A Grey and Beenham, who, like the favourite, boast good speed figures.

However, my ears pricked up when I saw the opening 25/1 about Tierney as I thought Oisin Murphy gave this Mehmas filly, who cost 115,000 guineas as a yearling, a very considerate introduction - very considerate - when fourth at Chester in the Lily Agnes last week and I expect her to take a big leap forward.

Drawn in two, she is housed around some pacey sorts either side of her, and she could well outrun her odds. However, this is effectively a guessing game and I'd much rather bet in races where I have a decent body of form to go at.

That 25s is probably the best bet if you want an interest though, as she very nearly made the betting cut.

No bets in Yorkshire Cup and more

York, 14:25, 15:35 and 16:10 - No Bets

With guessing games in mind, the 3yo 7f192yd fillies' race at 14:25 looks an absolute minefield.

All 10 are winners, four are unbeaten once-raced fillies from top yards (William Haggas has two of them) and it must have been a nightmare for the odds-compilers to price up.

They landed on the unbeaten Silver Lady and Queen For You, who are both out of Group 1 winners - in fact that pair dominate the early market at 9/4 and 3/1 with the Sportsbook respectively - and I didn't have an opinion.

The same applies to the Yorkshire Cup at 15:35, where the world and their partner are aware the 5/2 favourite Quickthorn could get an uncontested lead should he so wish, and the 3yo 1m novice at 16:10 (both are seven-runner races).

Class dropper worth chancing

York, 15:00 - Tony's Tip: Masekela @ 13.012/1+

They just don't looking like punting races. However, the 1m2f56yd handicap at 15:00 offers up a bet, and it was very nearly Diderot at 16/1 with the Sportsbook.

Now, this recommendation would have come with an obvious downside and that is the 5yo has very little turf form to speak of.

His grass efforts have seen him finish 7th of 7, 13th of 26, and 12th of 13, so you can easily argue he is badly handicapped off 92.

On his turf form then, you would struggle to rate him higher than 80, but he has been in cracking form on the all-weather.

Last time out, he copped a handsome 33k when winning a valuable 1m2f all-weather handicap at Lingfield on Good Friday, after which he was rated 99 in that sphere. He races off 92 here.

I am going to have a few quid on him - he is currently trading at 20/1+ on the exchange - but Masekela is the bet in the race at 13.012/1 or bigger. That's a fair price to aim at, as he is 12/1 in three places in the wider marketplace.

Last year's Derby fourth scrapes in this 0-100 off top weight, having been dropped 2lb to a mark of 102 for his return in the Earl Of Sefton, and he clearly has a significant class edge over these at his best.

There wasn't any obvious promise in his Newmarket return, but he clearly had a tough task in that grade, and he drops to handicap company for the first time here.

Outside of his second to Adayar in a conditions race at Doncaster last September, he has plied his trade exclusively in Listed or Group company since his debut win at two and a reproduction of his best efforts would make him tough to beat off 102.

He also has good course form, having finished a 3-length fourth in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes here on quick ground last August. This occasional front-runner can hopefully see off possible pace rivals, Marie's Diamond and stablemate Nobel, and bid to make all. If it remains on the quick side, that would be ideal.

Trust Officer to come First at Newbury

Newbury, 14:05 - Tony's Tip: First Officer @ 21.020/1+

We also have 20-runner 1m2f handicap on the box at Newbury at 14:05 and I am going to take a swing with First Officer at 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is 25s in a few places, so that is obviously a very fair guide price. You'll get bigger given his current form.

Like York, Newbury was set to get a bit of rain on Friday, but that has basically disappeared. The ground is currently good and that may well quicken up if anything. Unless they water.

Now, it could be that the Newbury handicap won by Mustazeed (the likeliest winner here and not a bad price at 6/1) last month could be key here - he won comfortably from subsequent winner Time Interval, with Tuxedo Junction in third and all three lock horns again here - but it may be worth noting that First Officer was sent off the 10/3 favourite that day before running like a drain.

Clearly, someone thinks he is capable of a lot better as he has been unexpectedly sent off as the market leader on his last two starts.

The good news is that he has now dropped to a mark of 83 - he was only just touched off at Doncaster off a 4lb higher mark last October, having previously bolted up from the front by 6 ½ lengths at Nottingham - and this ground-versatile horse (he has won on good to firm) is tried in first-time blinkers here (the trainer is 3 from 34 since 2009 with this option, so no great shakes).

The dam ran in them, and two of his siblings have won in blinkers and cheekpieces, so the family may have a kink that needs correcting by headgear.

I would expect him be go forward in the blinkers - some of his best efforts have been from the front and he has been ridden more quietly when disappointing on his last two starts - but there are no shortage of pace rivals, so his jockey will have to play it as it unfolds.

The stable form is admittedly a concern.

Get rewarded by backing a Sweet outsider

Newbury, 14:05 - Tony's Tips: Sweet Reward @ 34.033/1+

Sweet Reward has been put in as the 40/1 outsider by one firm and that looks far too big a price. The Sportsbook's 33s is well worth a nibble, too. I'll play win-only at 34.033/1 or bigger on the exchange, but obviously the fixed-odds route is there, too.

The return to an expected better surface should suit him - he finished eighth in that Mustazeed race and was never sighted behind Time Interval in heavy ground at Goodwood last time -and this course winner has dropped to a mark of 78.

The last time he raced off that mark he won at Sandown in 2021, and he started last season off 86, having subsequently won at Goodwood off 81.

He handles soft ground but I think he is better on a sounder surface (especially when racing over this 1m2f trip, which is the limit of his stamina) and 33/1+ looks tasty. The improved forecast is very much is in favour.

Good luck.

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